Earthquakes

[Tink]

If you can figure out where and when dirt is gonna settle, you are either in the wrong job or wrong planet, or both.

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[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Earthquake prediction:

On one of the stories about the recent Mexico City quake, the announcer described their early warning system. As soon as a quake is detected, sirens are triggered. Because the system is electronic and nearly instantaneous, it's faster than the movement of the quakes waves underground and along the surface. It provides a few seconds for people not directly over the quake to try and get outside to safety.

The Donner Party really wasn't that great of a party, was it?

[reni]

"Anytime is a good time to look around your house and think what could fall over in an earthquake"......
.had to laugh at this one, Paul!!.......first and foremost, I hope it's not my roof, while I'm busily preparing dinner, doing the laundry, stretched out on my couch reading a good book or worse yet, soaking in the tub.
I remember the strong earthquake back in the late 80's. We were living in Ahualoa. My cats were flying thru the house before I even felt the first tremor. I was in the kitchen when the shaking started, cupboard doors opened and it looked as if my dishes were being suspended in mid air before crashing to the floor and making a horrendous noise and mess. Seriously, everything can come crashing down if the quake is strong enough.

We also had the (dis)pleasure of being in Oakland during one of their major earthquakes. We were attending a business conference. The meeting was on the 4th or 5th floor of a large hotel. The building started swaying. I felt as if we were on a boat in stormy seas. I moved to hold on to a large concrete pillar and suggested that others follow. Didn't realize until after the violent swaying subsided that the stupid pillar was hollow, only there for decoration!

[glinda]

quote:

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Originally posted by MarkD

Earthquake prediction: Has the supposed widespread strange reaction of animals to an impending quake been either verified or proven false? Might be some value for short-term warning, if odd animal behavior is a truth.

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Actually yes, there's quiet a bit of research that has shown a strong correlation between animal behavior and impending natural disasters. Though to be honest know it alls that say it can't be done make it difficult for the leading edge of any scientific inquiry to gain traction. But yes, through the years there has been some worthy efforts made in that realm. Especially where the more subtle nature of some animals senses are concerned.

For instance, there's the work that Jim Berkland did throughout his life. Jim, who was the California state geologist, cataloged thousands and thousands of missing pet reports and believed he saw a strong correlation between them and patterns of earthquakes. So much so that he became pretty good at predicting earthquakes based on an ongoing statistical analysis of those reports from around the world. It's not as if Jim's work rose to the level of solid irrefutable science though I believe he was on to something.

On a more conservative note, there is a big push world wide in places that have earthquakes to install and continuously improve a system of accelerometers, seismometers, communication, computers, and alarms that is devised for regional notification of a substantial earthquake while it is in progress. This is commonly referred to as an Earthquake Early Warning System. Unfortunately the employment of such a system in the USA is a bit behind many other seismic groups around the world. And, although the Obama administration saw to it that funding was put in place to develop one, there is great fear among those doing the actual deployment that Trump may not see it through.

I personally see the early warning system as a first step towards creating a network that will be employed as technologies are developed that have greater and greater sensitivity to the forces, their accumulation, and release, and eventually we will have predictive mechanisms in place. Though there will always be those that just say no. If they personally can't imagine it, it surely can not be done. As such the real seers, the real leading edge minds, usually have a greater struggle to get their views listened to, their theories tested, and eventually proven and accepted. But it does happen, even if along the way we have to listen to those that say it can't be done.

[PaulW]

Judge for yourself:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Berkland
Sounds like the standard bunch of crock to me.
What a coincicidence that glinda is also so interested in earthquakes!

[TomK]

MarkD - animal behavior predicting earthquakes has been mostly anecdotal. It has been studied, but there is no conclusive evidence it happens other than they tend to be more sensitive to the P-waves sent by an actual EQ and react to them much faster than humans. I'm not totally up-to-date on this, but this is worth reading. A 20% success rate means they saw no correlation.

"We systematically applied a retrospective interview approach to the study of unusual animal behavior prior to seven earthquakes in North, Central and South America. Data taken at some distance from two of the earthquakes provided a baseline rate of unusual animal behavior. In comparison to this baseline one earthquake was preceded by a significant increase in unusual animal behavior and four were not."

https://goo.gl/7cFbZo

glinda - although you kept on mentioning it in your post, no one in this thread has said it won't be possible to predict earthquakes in the future. We just can't do it now.

PS. Another interesting read:

http://www.donaldprothero.com/files/92369329.pdf

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by glinda

[quote][i]On a more conservative note, there is a big push world wide in places that have earthquakes to install and continuously improve a system of accelerometers, seismometers, communication, computers, and alarms that is devised for regional notification of a substantial earthquake while it is in progress. This is commonly referred to as an Earthquake Early Warning System. Unfortunately the employment of such a system in the USA is a bit behind many other seismic groups around the world.

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Yes, this is true. Seconds or even minutes advance notice could make a big difference. NY Times just had a story on this a couple days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/opini...ml?mcubz=0

[DTisme]

I assume everyone knows to get under a doorway, inside a bathtub enclosure, or the like, bc there is more support there than in the middle of a room. Also, I heard that if you're in bed, simply rolling off the side of the bed and lying on the floor next to the bed can be helpful. The space next to beds is often spared bc when things fall and hit the bed, they create a hollow there. Other places to go are under tables. Stay away from windows, bricks, and other building "add-ons." One of the most common injuries in earthquakes is broken glass - so Hawaii particularly bad bc we are all most likely barefoot during quake. (Even rolling to the floor from bed can be dangerous if the area is near a window.)

I lived in Bay Area during Loma Prieta. It was pretty awful, esp the aftershocks.

[TomK]

DTisme - advice has changed about standing beneath a doorway in an earthquake as you're vulnerable to being hit by debris and even the door itself.

Some interesting stuff here:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics...antasy.php

[bluesboy]

yes, earthquake early warning is very real, and is moving along in America. Up to a minute warning may be possible. Enough to move to a safer place, stop an elevator, stop a train, etc, etc.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/earlywarning/

Due to the geography, in Hawaii it probably won't be quite as useful as on the mainland, but there is still potential.