Mauna Loa Alert raised to Advisory

[TomK]

Thanks for that, terracore. Personally, I find the claim that cosmic rays interact directly with magma a little dubious since they don't penetrate rock particularly far. Indeed, many experiments are being done underground to avoid the noise caused by cosmic ray hits. The effect on the Earth's rotation also seems a little out there in my mind, but it is known that cosmic rays affect atmospheric chemistry and can also affect more general weather patterns. I can see how, for instance, changes on atmospheric pressure could affect magma close to the earth's surface.

Just a note that some might find interesting. The solar wind and the magnetic field it generates deflects high-energy cosmic rays away from the earth, but during solar minima, the solar wind is less energetic and there are few coronal mass ejections which mean we receive a higher flux of galactic and extragalactic cosmic rays on earth. The correlation was discovered by a guy called Forbush if you want to look it up; the "Forbush decrease" - galactic cosmic ray flux decreases during solar maxima.

[TomK]

islandliving,

"This isn’t random. The swarm is continuing by the second. Something big is happening."

I believe Obie's point is the initial earthquake was random and is expected to occur every so often in a tectonically active area. As it turns out, it was a foreshock for an even bigger one. The earthquakes since then have been aftershocks which is normal after big earthquakes, so that bit isn't random. As I'm sure you remember, we had the exact same thing happen in Puna last year, and we are still experiencing aftershocks. And just to cover everything, some seismologists are predicting another large EQ in CA at roughly the same location.

[PaulW]

No offence terracore, but I find your links to be very dubious.

This "confidence level of 96.7%" is based on a sample size of 11.
One link is just some guy on wordpress.
Another link refers to "global warming alarmists".
The last one is written is such poor English that I doubt anyone has reviewed it, let alone his peers.

I can't see any plausible mechanism through which the sun could cause earthquakes. If there are any real studies, please let us know.

[pbmaise]

I found four good seismographs to monitor on Mauna Loa.
WILD is near summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...LD-24h.png
ALEP is NW of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...EP-24h.png
HSSD is NE of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...SD-24h.png
RCOD is SW of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...OD-24h.png

Over the past 24hrs HSSD appears to be the most active to me. You can also look at past 48 hours by changing the 24 in these links to 48.

See this page for instrument locations.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mau...mmary.html

[TomK]

quote:

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Originally posted by pbmaise

I found four good seismographs to monitor on Mauna Loa.
WILD is near summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...LD-24h.png
ALEP is NW of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...EP-24h.png
HSSD is NE of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...SD-24h.png
RCOD is SW of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...OD-24h.png

Over the past 24hrs HSSD appears to be the most active to me.

See this page for instrument locations.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mau...mmary.html

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And this is useful in what way?

[TomK]

pbmaise - you can edit your post as many times as you want, but the question remains. How is anyone supposed to interpret the data?

A seismologist can, given they have access to raw data, but the seismometer plots are meaningless to everyone else and I suspect are meaningless to you as well. So just what is it that you want people to do with the URLs you posted? There's no scale on the plots so there's hardly anything the lay person can learn from them. So what's your point?

[pbmaise]

quote:

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Originally posted by TomK

quote:

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Originally posted by pbmaise

I found four good seismographs to monitor on Mauna Loa.
WILD is near summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...LD-24h.png
ALEP is NW of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...EP-24h.png
HSSD is NE of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...SD-24h.png
RCOD is SW of summit https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...OD-24h.png

Over the past 24hrs HSSD appears to be the most active to me.

See this page for instrument locations.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mau...mmary.html

---

And this is useful in what way?

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It is a certainty that a flow will occur. The uncertainty is where. It is simply my position that if seismographs are more active in one quadrant, the odds of flow in that quadrant are higher. Whether that information is useful is indeed debatable. People are likely to do nothing until a flow is actively present up slope of them.

Former Puna Beach Resident
Now sailing in SE Asia
HOT BuOYS Sailing

[glinda]

And this is useful in what way?

It kept him busy while compiling it?

[pbmaise]

I thought the important question is where will lava initially erupt? The 1984 eruption was initially at the summit, quickly moved to 5 km to the SW. However, the next day a large curtain of lava erupted to the NE of the summit.

The "2-kilometer-long “curtain” of lava fountained from the cracks, reaching up to 50 meters in height and releasing between 1 million and 2 million cubic meters of lava per hour."