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Quarantine extended at least another month
#1
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/07/13/...gh-august/

HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - The state will delay by at least a month the planned Aug. 1 reopening of Hawaii’s tourism industry with a traveler pre-testing program, Gov. David Ige has announced.
During a legislative briefing Monday, Ige said he would be extending the 14-day mandatory quarantine for all trans-Pacific travelers through the end of August as the state continues to hammer out the details of how the testing program would work ― and ensure that visitors don’t slip through the cracks.
“We are preparing the emergency, supplemental emergency proclamation for specifically that,” Ige said.
The governor has faced mounting pressure from several corners, including from all four county mayors, to push back the planned reopening of tourism.

The plan, first announced on June 24, was considered by many to be a lifeline to Hawaii’s flat-lining visitor industry and would require travelers to get tested before they arrive in the islands.
But the plan hit a number of roadblocks in recent days, including because of a surge in infections on the mainland and a subsequent shortage of tests in some areas.
Ige first implemented the quarantine measures back in March, requiring any passenger on any flight landing in Hawaii to spend 14 days in isolation to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

As a result, the number of passenger arrivals statewide fell from an average of nearly 30,000 per day to fewer than 400 by the middle of April, according to data released by the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

Eliminating travel restrictions that pertained to inter-island travel ― which the governor did last month ― was the first step taken toward ushering in the return of the tourism sector in Hawaii.
The second, the state hoped, was to be the changes to the trans-Pacific travel restrictions that were scheduled to go into effect on Aug. 1.
In lieu of a 14-day quarantine, the state instead wanted to require passengers to produce a negative coronavirus pre-test, taken within 72 hours of departure to Hawaii.
And though the state admitted that a rise in cases was expected even if new restrictions were in place, the state Department of Health insisted that Hawaii’s hospital system could handle a potential increase.

But as coronavirus cases on the mainland have surged in recent weeks, including in some of the markets that typically send the highest number of travelers to Hawaii, the state’s plan has been criticized for being too weak to prevent rash of new cases in Hawaii and ensure visitors were following the rules.
The Honolulu City Council unanimously passed a resolution Wednesday asking the governor to consider delaying the implementation of the change in travel restrictions in order to fortify certain aspects, like testing and contact tracing.

The resolution also suggested that the state implement a requirement for a second negative coronavirus test, taken within seven days of the first negative test, in order to avoid quarantining.
And on Thursday, Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell himself cast doubt on the feasibility of the state’s plan, saying he no longer thinks allowing visitors to avoid quarantine starting next month if they test negative for COVID-19 is “safe for everyone.”

U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, and members of the Hawaii County Council also spoke out against state’s plan, urging the governor to reconsider its implementation.
“The current plan for testing visitors 72 hours before arriving in the State of Hawaiʻi is inadequate as it will increase the exposure of COVID-19 to airline, hotel, and service industry employees,” the Hawaii County Council said in a statement. “These are our families, friends, and neighbors.”
This story will be updated.
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#2
Some of the problems with Ige's plan:

1. Covid-19 test results in the areas of greatest Hawaii tourist origin are now taking 7-10 day to come in. The plan required 72 hours. There were other holes in the plan, but this was an obvious out.

2. Three more Hawaii residents just died. Yes, they were old and had other medical conditions, but they died. That has spooked some people, inside and outside of government.

3. The current quarantine has pretty much been on the honor system, and people were beginning to realize it hasn't been effectively enforced. Moving forward with the August 1 reopening would have presented even more opportunities for quarantine mischief.

4. Nobody, including some state officials, had any real faith that the state of Hawaii could effectively manage a cake walk, never mind a complex and interconnected plan such as the one proposed.

I do have a suggestion that would help the hotel industry and make the quarantine much more effective, though. Send all arrivals under escort to a designated group of hotels where they would be kept under secured watch around the clock and charged for their room and board plus a security fee for 14 days. They either accept that or remain in airport detention awaiting the next flight back to wherever. I think some countries are already doing this, btw.
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#3
To help flatten the curve........ charge all incoming passengers from the mainland and returning residents who don't test before arrival $2000 for a 14 day quarantine in a hotel the state designates for quarantine travelers. Sydney Australia has already started this for transpacific passengers.


https://www.reuters.com/.../health-coron...-australia...
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#4
The pre-test plan was designed to fail: as a practical matter, a 72-hour test was never really available.

Forcing people into a quarantine hotel is probably doable if it's structured correctly, but there will be a vaccine before Ige and company can make a plan.

Extending the quarantine means some hotels will close == permanent reduction of economic capacity. Too bad the State couldn't support TMT...
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#5
If I owned a large hotel in Honolulu I would already be making plans to turn it into apartments/condos (at least several floors worth) while there was still credit available to do so, especially if it had parking. A friend of mine bought a condo there a few years ago and the lender required that the unit came with a designated parking space which a lot of them don't have.
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#6
I believe it's positive news that Ige is extending the quarantine plan with arrivals.  It seems safer than the proposed alternative of a getting a free pass if you test negative within 72 hours of the travel date. 

I'm not sure about the numbers and perhaps nobody is, but what is the accuracy of the tests these days?  I have heard a variety of things. 30% false negatives? Or is it 20% now or less?

"In recent weeks, preliminary findings have flagged potential problems with some COVID-19 tests, including one used daily at the White House. Faulty tests could leave many thousands of Americans with the incorrect assumption that they are virus-free, contributing to new flare-ups of the disease as communities reopen."
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technol...ly-unknown

A John Hopkins medical team determined it to be one in five false negatives a few weeks ago.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/article...d-19-cases

Of course either way, with the quarantine, or with the (false) negative result on the test, the infected person is flying and potentially spreading the virus to others on the plane but the quarantine helps to stop the spread with himself and others he potentially infected on the plane once they arrive on the island.
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#7
Inaccurate testing results are a big issue, but just as bad if not worse is the time to get those results. Take a test, wait 7-10 days. Two bad things could conceivably have happened 1) false negative, you actually do have the virus but are said to be clear, and 2) you get an accurate negative result but in the 7-10 day wait period you picked up the virus. With either of these you think you're good to go but are actually spreading the virus.

Accurate testing is critical but so is getting results quickly.
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