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It's Hurricane Season
#1
Tonight, I went to one of the After Dark in the Park presentations. This one was by Jim Weyman of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. He talked about hurricanes in the Central Pacific, covering historical trends and the possible effects of global warming/climate change. He's going to be giving a similar presentation, focusing more on global warming/climate change at 'Imiloa at 4:00p tomorrow, Wed., 6/13. It's free.
http://www.imiloahawaii.org/events.php

He had lots to say, dispelling the myths that Kaua'i is more susceptible to hurricanes and the Big Island isn't. It's only been a coincidence that Kaua'i was more affected by 3-4 hurricanes since the 1950's and the Big Island wasn't. He said that people should have plans for how they will deal with the 5-7 days after a major hurricane event. He recommended having food, water, prescription medication, shelter accounted for in the event of a large hurricane event. It may be that long before any government services will be able to get to you.

He said that you can take measures to prepare your home to be more hurricane-ready than it is now. He noted that the State has set aside money to help people retrofit their homes.
http://www.hawaii.gov/dcca/areas/ins/con...ts_Program
A guy in the audience said that he looked into this and the program, in his assessment, was too fraught with permitting issues to be useful, but Jim Weyman disagreed. Anyhow, it is a program that is underused and may help defray some of the costs of retrofitting. However, Weyman did say that he wouldn't stay in a house that was single-wall construction during a significant hurricane; they are not structurally viable enough.

He said that if you want to monitor hurricane events, you can check their website
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
He said to read the forecast discussions to get a clearer understanding of any event. By the way, we are in hurricane season right now, June 1 to Nov. 30. The forecast for 2007 is for 2-3 tropical cyclones (I don't recall if this was for the whole season or per month). Tropical cyclones is a generic term that includes all tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. Normally, 3-5 tropical cyclones are predicted for the same period, so the forecast is for a lower than normal occurrence.

He summed up by saying that it's inevitable that a major hurricane will hit the Island, the odds play out that way; they just aren't able to predict when or where.

I asked him about the sudden windstorm that hit upper Puna in 1991 (I think, I wasn't on the Island, I only heard about it). That was not a hurricane, it was the result of unsual winds from the south (Kona winds) that became amplified by the climb up through Ka'u and plowed down through Volcano Village, Glenwood and Mountain View. There were winds around 90-100 MPH, I'm told. Knocked a lot of trees down.

There was some discussion about how your homeowners insurance covers you (or doesn't) in case of high wind damage and, if, and when, the weather service calls it a hurricane. If your home suffers damage from high winds and the weather service calls it a hurricane, your regular policy won't cover you, you need to have a hurricane insurance rider. If the winds are high (even enough to be a hurricane) but the weather service doesn't call it a hurricane, your regular insurance should cover you. I'm not an underwriter, I'm only relating what I heard. So, you should check your policy and talk to your agent for the real low down. I believe that in Hawai'i if you're carrying a mortgage, your lender requires that you have hurricane insurance, too. Is that correct?

Anyhow, with all of the concern and talk about the risks of lava flows, especially in the lower Puna district, I think it may not be emphasized enough that hurricanes are a greater danger than lava. We may have been lulled into a sense of security because Kaua'i drew the short straw the last 3-4 times. The weather experts say that there's nothing in their assessments that say that this is a trend that we can count on.

Go hear the talk and find out how global warming/climate change might affect hurricane frequency and intensity in our Central Pacific region.

Edited by - Les C on 06/12/2007 23:14:05
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#2
Les, that was very good information. Thank you.

Carrie

"All I can say about life is, Oh God, enjoy it." Bob Newhart

Carrie

http://www.carrierojo.etsy.com
http://www.vintageandvelvet.blogspot.com

"Freedom has a scent like the top of a newborn baby's head..." U2
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#3
What I havent noticed much in all the "its hurricane" season whoopla is that Mauna Kea and Mauna Kea do "protect" us by disrupting the air currents that precede the cyclone or hurricane. (any one see the lenticular clouds the other day?http://www.space.com/imageoftheday/image...1126.html )

Yes we have our hurricane kit ready every year and my SO is probably the only one who wants it to hit us so he can see if one house he built withstands it (ha ha - not really serious folks!!)!

Historically the winds are disrupted and channel the hurricanes north into colder water where they dissipate or south around South Point where they pick up steam in the warmer water and slam into Kauai. There is a reason besides height that the observatories are on top of Mauna Kea (and that is air currents!)

Our chances of being inundated by lava are much higher than the East side being hit directly on by a hurricane. That said, even a glancing blow has devasting effects with leading edge wave heights and rain. The NOAA scientists are telling us it is an El Nino period but typically the hurricane rate is much smaller during those years (prediction was for 2-3 named hurricanes this year). So.... is it El Nino? or are the hurricanes going to be worse? Or do they really have any clue? (see global warming VS global dimming!)

Edited by - kapohocat on 06/13/2007 10:05:23
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#4
Cat, This might open up an interesting debate but I believe the tale about Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea keeping
hurricanes at bay is a myth.

I hope I have time to attend the Imaloa presentation this afternoon (4pm). It would be intereting to see that question dealt with.... or perhaps Les knows what the expert said.
Assume the best and ask questions.

Punaweb moderator
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#5
Thanks for the picture link Cat! Wow, it made me think of a big vacuum in the sky, a prequel to the rapture perhaps. Isn't nature beautiful, wonderful, interesting and just plain awe inspiring! Thanks!

mella l
mella l
Art and Science
bytheSEA
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#6
I realized as I typed that by using the word "protect" it would cause a discussion. How about the word "Deflect" instead?

I dont think the air currents effect has been studied as much as hurricanes in the Gulf. When I search on the internet, not much is found specifically referring to effect on MK & ML on hurricanes. But the question was posed to me - why isnt there tornadoes in the Rockies?

If you spend some time looking at the upper air level maps (ok, we have a weather geek here at my house!), you can see the effect that MK & ML have on the upper air speed, direction, high and low pressure. Wind speeds and direction tends to "break" slightly above or slightly below the mountains. Typically, we dont have enough "ground heating" versus cold air to fuel a hurricane on the East Side. With trade winds blowing from the NE and the

Same as how they dissapate coming on land except in FL... where they come across and can regain strength.

Rob, I would be really interested in what they mention about upper air levels and the currents.
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#7
Jim Weyman said specifically that the mountain masses themselves do not protect us from hurricanes. What has been the trend in the Central Pacific is that we don't typically get many dangerous tropical cyclones crashing into the Islands because of the deeper, colder water (compare the Gulf of Mexico) and the wind shear, high altitude winds that "cut the heads off most storm systems. But this doesn't mean that we are not going to get bad hurricanes (note Kaua'i's bad luck). There was a fairly strong cyclone that cut across the Kohala Mtns and slammed Maui, perhaps the 1871 event. Hurricanes weren't being classed or described as such at that time. Weyman did say that he doesn't think that the Islands will ever get hit with a category 5 (strongest) hurricane because the conditions for such just aren't present. But, that said, Iniki was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall on Kaua'i. I was surprised that Hurricane Dot in 1959 was a category 4 when it moved into the area. It lessened to a category 1 by the time it made landfall on Kaua'i, so it wasn't as destructive money-wise. It did have 100-125 MPH gusts. Here's a Wikipedia page on Hawai'i's hurricanes, subject to how much you trust Wikipedia info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_hurricanes

Weyman said that global warming/climate change may be moving warmer water closer to the Islands.

The lower prediction for named storms this season is apparently due to the El Nino (La Nina this year?).

I was surprised that the windstorm that hit Puna in 1991 was not hurricane-related but from Kona winds! Also, Weyman mentioned the storm of Nov. 2, 2000 that dumped over 27" of rain on Hilo in 24 hrs. That was the result of conditions that grew a cyclone right over the big Island. I don't recall if that was declared a hurricane. Here's a URL about that event and even a doppler loop:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extr...s1100.html

One more informational URL on Hurricanes in Hawai'i
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Faculty/...hurricane/

Edited by - Les C on 06/13/2007 15:14:34
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#8
I think that last link is the best, Les.

And, this here link of the current central Pacific radar.. I watched the hurricane run out of here in October 2005. Yaw watch the constant, continuous storms just south of us, and yaw get the idea. It's like a fireball down there year round.. once and a while, like in 05 one of these gets away. In 05 it headed for the big island then veered off east.
These storms are scary, good thing it's rare they come this way. Er ah, guess where our rain is coming from?

Link: http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=uhmet&chnl=ui4&domain=cpo&size=large&period=720&incr=60&rr=900&satplat=goes10&overlay=off

Watch this radar regularly, and you'll see too, from 0-10 lat. there's always blistering storms swirling around down there.



Edited by - Jeffhale on 06/13/2007 20:40:27
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