Thunderstorm Alert for Sat slight, Better for Sun.

[Ino]

This upper air model ( appox. 18k feet up ) shows a possible Upper Level feature on it’s way for Sunday- slight chance Sat. but better chance here on Sunday;
http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html
Check out day 15 ( pretty far out for accuracy ) but a possible windstorm could approach us from the NW at that time.

Not a surprise as climatology brings the greatest chance of cold front related windstorms to this latitude during the month of February.

This is a great model to monitor for cold air events here and around the Northern Hemisphere. Shows temps at 18k feet.

Cold air aloft is plunging towards the SE and will arrive here on Sunday;
https://tinyurl.com/yd2cesd5

CAPE values will jump on Sunday and if the Sun’s out early Sunday morning, Watch out as this will lead to uneven surface heating and will increase the chance of a thunderstorm greatly. We did have convection on Thurs. but there was too much high cloudiness to create enough surface heat to create a rising fast enough storm to create lightning;
https://tinyurl.com/z8sntkl

Click on the right side of model to advance- check out 2 pm Sunday. Anytime CAPE values get above 1,000, the atmosphere is ripe for convection.

If this happens we could get gusty winds, downpours and even hail and waterspouts could be possible- Heads-up!

Mahalo for all the Positive vibes and well wishes! on my last post- I really appreciated that!

[TomK]

Thanks, Ino, the stuff you post is fascinating! I was under the impression we might get a bit of a respite on Sunday through Tues although I know it's not going to be the best of weather.

If you have the time, I would be very interested to read your opinion on the latest MKWC forecast (issued Fri 5 pm 1/26/2018) and compare and contrast to your own forecast.

MKWC archived forecast: https://goo.gl/YbRXqh

Whether you move on or not, I hope you continue to post here, and if not, I would love to be able to contact you via email. I have a life-long interest in meteorology as my father was a meteorologist and was the person who influenced me most to get into the physical sciences.

[Mtviewdude]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ino

This upper air model ( appox. 18k feet up ) shows a possible Upper Level feature on it’s way for Sunday- slight chance Sat. but better chance here on Sunday;
http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html
Check out day 15 ( pretty far out for accuracy ) but a possible windstorm could approach us from the NW at that time.

Not a surprise as climatology brings the greatest chance of cold front related windstorms to this latitude during the month of February.

This is a great model to monitor for cold air events here and around the Northern Hemisphere. Shows temps at 18k feet.

Cold air aloft is plunging towards the SE and will arrive here on Sunday;
https://tinyurl.com/yd2cesd5

CAPE values will jump on Sunday and if the Sun’s out early Sunday morning, Watch out as this will lead to uneven surface heating and will increase the chance of a thunderstorm greatly. We did have convection on Thurs. but there was too much high cloudiness to create enough surface heat to create a rising fast enough storm to create lightning;
https://tinyurl.com/z8sntkl

Click on the right side of model to advance- check out 2 pm Sunday. Anytime CAPE values get above 1,000, the atmosphere is ripe for convection.

If this happens we could get gusty winds, downpours and even hail and waterspouts could be possible- Heads-up!

Mahalo for all the Positive vibes and well wishes! on my last post- I really appreciated that!

---

I just wanted to say thank you, your posts have always been educational and welcome. I wish you well.

[Kapoho Joe]

Mahalo Ino! Great stuff as always.

[terracore]

Thundering now. Ino right again!