Is it a good time to build?

[nanasohana]

I thought it might be a good time for this discussion to help those that might be about to build. Is copper to high right now? Is lumber too high right now? Are subs just too busy right now? Other issues which might making waiting to build for say a year or so wiser?

[JerryCarr]

Aloha, Nancy. You raise an interesting and important question. Perhaps some of the realtors and contractors on the forum can give a broader view on these issues. I do spend a lot of time roaming around HPP, and my casual observation is that there are a lot fewer new homes being started than a year ago. That might imply that some of the subs may have less work backed up than in the past. Given the ratio of lumber to copper wiring in a house, I expect that the lumber has much more impact on the total cost. Lumber and metal prices are, IMHO, far more likely to moderate at some point than the cost of transporting them here. We seem to have settled into a prolonged, if not permanent, situation of high oil prices.

Cheers,
Jerry

[Kapohocat]

What I am seeing is more availabilty on subs... which will eventually translate into lower pricing for labor. I cant guess if it will go back to pre-2004 $$'s where you could find a good carpenter for under $20/hr.

Materials it is hard to guess - in late 2005, HPM created a stir on materials by sending out a letter that due to Hurricanes in the gulf they would do everthing they could to NOT raise pricing higher than necessary. That monday there was practically a run on lumber. They created their own shortage. None of the other lumber yards seemed to follow but did seem get a sales benefit from the letter.

As for copper, what about CPVC piping instead? Any thoughts anyone? The guys I talked to say it stands up better with our acidic soil/lava rock.

-Cat



Catherine Dumond
808 217-7578
"We help make building your dream home a reality"

[John S. Rabi]

Just remember, the construction you see now is construction that started a year ago. (Permitting, clearing the lots, waiting for the GCs to be ready to start, etc.) I have been building homes for six years but I stopped building because it's not feasible anymore. The labor cost is astronomical here. I have a GC friend in Cincinnati, he said the prices at Home Depot/Lowe's here are 10% higher than in Cincinnati, but the average building cost is $80/sf there while it's $200/sf here. So where does the extra $112 go?

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185

[Rob L]

Nancy,
I'm glad that you started this topic. Back in May I circulated my plans to three contractors. There was an astonishing difference in the estimates I got back. One of the contractors clearly did not want the work as he was over twice the low bid. But, even the low bid was about a third more than I wanted to pay. I decided not to build for now. I think lumber is very high, but as interest rates rise, housing starts will slow and the price of lumber may come down. The big unknown is China. It is using incredible amounts of copper and all other primary inputs as it's industries grow at over 10% a year. But, their are also signs that China's economy is slowing down too. If that happens, Then all componant costs may fall and builders may find they have more time on their hands. (The down side might be that fewer people are buying). So, I'm content to wait, but I could be wrong. As Henry Ford is alleged to have said "It's dangerious to make predictions, especially about the future."

Aloha,
Rob L

[Hotzcatz]

Aloha Nancy & assorted Punatics!

I think WHY you want to build the house would be an important consideration in whether to build right now or not. If it is spec building then now would be a really bad time to start building, IMHO. If, however, the house to be built is somewhere that you are going to be living in yourself for a long period of time, then it doesn't matter when you start building and now would be as good a time as any. I also think, however, that a year or two from now would be a better time to start building IF you don't need to finance the building since by then interest rates will be higher. So, the labor will be more available and most likely less expensive, there is hopes the lumber costs will go down, but you will have to pay higher interest rates for any construction loans. However, there will be foreclosures and already built houses being sold at one hopes a cheaper rate so perhaps building wouldn't be necessary at all?

Well, anyway, just my two cents worth.

A hui hou,
Cathy