Predictions for 2010

[Rob Tucker]

Now folks, Perhaps this has gone on long enough. PaulW asked for Hawaii related predictions and once again people have wandered off into Dogma Land and have to insist that their dogma is better than someone else's dogma.

Punaweb is a community site and the intention here is to keep to community issues. There is a lot of latitude if you can keep your discussion somehow based in Puna or Hawaii.

For those that prefer wider ranging discussions or arguments there are innumerable forums and blogs for that purpose. Here in Puna there are PunaOnline for one, Sensible Simplicity for another. Take your choice.

So I have consulted with Punawebs Operating Committee and we are asking that the hijacking of this topic come to an end. If this request is ignored I will bring it to an end. Unless you can base your discussion in Puna and Hawaii - theories of how the world does or ought to operate can be argued and fought over elsewhere.



Assume the best and ask questions.

Punaweb moderator

[chrisb483]

Capitalism and authoritarianism exists in Puna, so it is a local topic.

But you would rather play novelty guessing games than be serious.

So, I predict I will be leaving Hawaii in two weeks. :^)

I predict Hawaii will be a horrible place to live on December 31, 2010, economically and socially. That is my honest prediction. Save this one. There will be 18% unemployment and civil unrest and a rash of property crime that you have not seen before. You will see the anarchy of chaos, and not the Anarchy of peace.

Oh, and all the deluded hippies will leave cause they can't get a free lunch anymore.

Goodbye.

Please cancel this account.

[PaulW]

Edited to add: please feel free to add more predictions for 2010 in the next few days. Preferably testable, preferably Hawaii/Puna-related.

Predictions so far (please let me know if I have missed any) :

KathyH (01/02/10) :
"I predict that the wave of foreclosures will continue"

John Rabi (01/02/10) :
"The REO properties will dry up and the real estate market will rebound after that."
"If you bet on the stock market, go with the emerging markets, those stocks are the first ones to take off in a recovery."

mdd7000 (01/02/10):
"My prediction - worsening foreclosures in 2010 with a slight bump in real estate sales in Spring due to pent up demand - going flat or lower for the rest of 2010."

Kapohocat (01/02/10):
"Rush Limbaugh will make a change to his format after his heart attack in Hawaii. We will find out he is gay with a wife who has been running his show and funding anonymously domestic violence prevention programs.
The mystery of the grassy knoll will be solved now that the people involved are over 75 and playing golf in Kona or at lifecare in Hilo.
We will have a democrat as governor at the end of this year in Hawaii.
We will find a way to use methane from compost as an alternative fuel for cars in Puna."

holahan (01/03/10):
"real estate will still be flat"
"my prediction would be that unemployment will end the year at 8% or so."
"i would guess that it [Dow] will end the year around 12,500 barring some unforeseen terror attack or catastrophic natural disaster."
"interest rates, tax increases and inflation are sure to come and will most likely halt the economic recovery"

whalesong: (01/03/10)
"Congress will get their pink slip and our printing press, the Federal Reserve will be audited and their doors will close. This will be the year the monoploy money ends and only a few, will have access to credit! We will see more and more tent cities, homelessness, less social programs, less food available."

Dave M (01/03/10) :
"My prediction is simple... They're going to tank the dollar this year and by this time next year we'll be in great discussion over currencies etc.. Countries are and will continue to drop the dollar as their international exchange currency as well."

808blogger (01/03/10) :
"Real estate will decline in real terms, (if a nominal increase may occur, but that is when consumer prices will be rocketing)
Increase in consumer prices
Military intervention in yemen / africa
unemployement will increase after the first quarter again
the dollar index will reach new lows
gold will continue to hit new highs
The Audit the fed bill will be passed
we will also have another "domestic incidents" in re: to a certain tactic we have a war on.
the commercial real estate market will further decay"

pslamont (01/04/10) :
"PREDICTIONS;
1. Country style smarts will continue to increase in value. Those that plant effective gardens, orchards, etc... will not only provide for themselves but provide for neighbors. |
2. Barter will become more and more prevalent
3. Make Do will be a more standardized concept. Repair instead of replace will be the norm for more and more people. Much of this "business" will be off the books for taxes and such.
4. Local taxes will rise. The rest of the country is used to 6-8% sales tax. Hawaii will have to give in and take the plunge to balance the budget.
5. Crime will continue to rise as the welfare generation, with its attitude of entitlement (the world owes me...) will take what they feel should be theirs without concern for those who have worked to "get"."

PaulW (01/04/10) :
"My predictions:
- Hawaii unemployment will go down
- Puna real estate values will go up
- Dow will go up; I'll guess 13,000
- County Council will pass a resolution saying there is insufficient evidence that a man has walked on the Moon
- still no change on Highway 130
- still no broadband in large areas of Puna, even densely populated parts of HPP"

Greg (01/04/10) :
"I predict Brett Favre will win the Superbowl MVP."

kabloink (01/04/10) :
"alcohol sales will remain strong"

Rob Tucker (01/04/10) :
"I predict that when the Woodland Center opens in Pahoa Village traffic will become much, much worse at that intersection."

Samdooby (01/05/10) :
"My prediction is that John Rabi will update that cheesy looking photo on his website..."

csgray (01/05/10) :
"Twitter becomes old news used only by a few obsessive compulsives who need to stay plugged in 24/7 due to it getting overloaded with so much commercial content that people quit using it as a form of communication."

808blogger (01/05/10) :
"1. YOUR HOUSE WILL BE WORTH LESS IN GOLD THIS DATE NEXT YEAR THAN IT IS WORTH IN GOLD TODAY
2. THE DOW WILL BE WORTH LESS IN GOLD THIS DATE NEXT YEAR THAN IT IS WORTH IN GOLD TODAY "
[Dow/gold was 9.59 on 01/01/10, 808 is saying it will be less]

Wao nahele kane (01/05/10) :
"A high probability the Federal Government will bankrupt irreparably, the U.S. monetary system will collapse and agricultural products will be amongst the few things having any value, greater than that of gold, petroleum, luxury products and residential/commercial real estate."

PaulW (01/06/10) :
"I predict marijuana will not be decriminalized in Hawaii in 2010."
"an increase in tourist numbers for the Big Island"
"most people will yet again have no interest in potato farming"

Wao nahele kane (01/06/10) :
"the cesspool will be removed from the list of allowed waste handling systems in Hawaii."

808blogger (01/07/10) :
"1. i predict the new pahoa longs will have a hard time keeping itself nice inside
2. the spot where punatic cafe was will stay empty"

chris483 (01/07/10) :
"I predict Hawaii will be a horrible place to live on December 31, 2010, economically and socially. [...] There will be 18% unemployment and civil unrest and a rash of property crime that you have not seen before."

Okay, they're not all testable but I can sort that out later. I didn't want to have to read through all the ramblings again.

[whalesong]

Hawaii will become a ghost town because, employers will not be able to afford $1070 per employee, for the "Unemployment Insurance Tax" which was $90.00 in 2009. Employee's who do keep their jobs, will be doing the work of 2 or 3 employee's to keep their jobs, without complaint!

Gas will soar to $5.50 and cause more people to opt to ride the HELE On bus for free because, they can't afford the insurance or the upkeep it takes to own a car.
More people will sign up for the military because, their will be fewer jobs on Mainstreet. U.S. will not be able to pay our debt to foreign creditors, leaving Americans, without foreign goods to purchase.

We will all learn how to live like Pioneers.[:0]

US citizen will finally accept our fate, WE ARE ON OUR OWN! As it should BE!

[David M]

PaulW

These look testable to me. If I have less money and the County/State charge me more than this year, that's measurable.

David

quote:

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Originally posted by David M

A good portion of the TARP funds will get repaid, but the funds shuffled to other programs rather than benefit us taxpayers. The 3 stooges will enact and sign legislation that will make last years budget deficit look like the good ole years. Bottom line we, taxpayers in Hawaii will pay more whether it's truthfully labelled taxes or given a more palatable name.

Both the State and County will operate with head in sand and refuse to bring government costs in line with realistic income projections and also increase their take from the people.

Bottomline, for same income level, we will have less discretionary funds.

David

Ninole Resident

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Ninole Resident

[808blogger]

quote:

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Originally posted by whalesong



People US citizen will finally accept our fate, WE ARE ON OUR OWN! As it should BE!

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great, agreed, but i i had to fix part of it for you.

[PaulW]

Results are here:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=11813