Ana degrading and further south?

[harryd]

ADT satellite derived intensity estimates are dropping like a rock!

Why is Ana weaking instead of strengthening right now? It looks to me like the upper level low that brought us rain and snow is inducing some shear on the west side of Ana. Subsiding and drier air in the wake of the departing upper level low is creating a, slightly, less favorable environment. Also the surface high to the northeast is limiting outflow on that side, and pushing the center of circulation west-southwest of the forecast points.

In the longer term, both the upper level low to the west and the surface high to the northeast will move away from Ana and have degrading influence Thursday and Friday.


Steering currents are, to an extent, based on the strength of Ana. Although they are forecast to be weak as she approaches the island chain, the tendency is for a stronger system to move a little more north and a weaker system to move a little more west.

That's all I gots this morning. More later.

watching Ana stuff at harrysserver.com/ana

[Frank]

mahalo harry...another source of info to consider...http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/hilo_harbor

[PunaMauka2]

harry, may i ask which specific info you are looking at? is it the " EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST "?

[opihikao]

Mahalo again, Harry. Great information and site! Be safe all.

JMO.

[PunaMauka2]

pahoated, i may be mistaken but i believe harry was looking at data more recent than this morning's 5 AM forecast track. i'm not sure i would exactly call the 5 AM track a direct hit on Kau either, though i would say it is a hit and certainly doesn't look good according to that latest tracking. normally i wouldn't be quite so picky with exact wording, but...

[reni]

this may shed a more light...http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv+/48h/3h

select 1 step slower up in left hand corner

[alaskyn66]

keep in mind folks... just because there is a line through Kau, Doesn't mean that were its headed.
the cone of uncertainty is there for a reason.

it is still a couple days before the line becomes more accurate.

When in Rome.. Do as the Romans do....

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Yes, there are still a few forecast models that show a possible ridge shift in the next 48 hours. Should that occur, it could allow Ana to swing north to Puna.

From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:
WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCN. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WIDER
SPREAD BEYOND THAT TIME. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY...

So while most models show a track headed toward South Point, the GFDL forecast remains somewhat troubling for those of us in Puna:
http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricane/gfd...TORMID=02C&YMDH=2014101512_ANA02C&prod=A1

[Carey]

The water vapor image loop helps:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-wv.html