Climatic Outlook for Hawaii's Near Future

[1voyager1]

For those, like myself, who occasionally find themselves with too much time on their hands, you might look into these:

El Nino looks to be coming in force.

http://www.vox.com/2015/8/17/9164499/el-nino-2015

What does that mean for us?
This might be an indication:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10....2.0.CO%3B2

Just something to help you sleep better, ...or not.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

What does that mean for us?

During the last El Nino cycle (1997) we had one of the most pleasant winters in Hawaii I can remember. Now, if we can just get through this busy summer hurricane season...

[1voyager1]

Maybe nothing, maybe a lot.
They are still guessing [with education].

In the first link, if you scroll down to the "scrolling card" at the bottom of the page, you'll find this on it:

"Somewhat fewer Atlantic hurricanes:
A strong El Niño typically increases hurricane activity in the Pacific and lowers it slightly in the Atlantic (by increasing the wind shear that prevents storms from forming). On the other hand [sic], Hawaii could see an increased risk of tropical storms."

Keep in mind that everyone is saying nothing more than "maybe" in both links.
Also, the wet conditions for California that are considered to be usual for El Nino years do not always happen.

I admit that I had not paid much attention to Pacific storms until Iselle.
This link had led me to believe that hurricanes in Hawai'i were a low probability:

http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com/2012/08/h...-1851.html

Click on the pic of the map for a full sized version of it.

looking at the storm track on that map, I have often wondered how much influence "Global Warming" will have on that track.
I think it is likely to push it further north placing Hawai'i right in the middle of it.
El Nino does pretty much the same thing by heating the Eastern Pacific's surface, but temporarily.

But, then again, I know nothing.
All that I can say is that It'll be interesting to see how things work out in the near future [1 year +/-, and on].

So far this season, I'm beginning to think there might be something to it.
We'll see.

[Kapohocat]

Praying for El Nino to drop rain (and then snow) in long even gentle amounts on the West Coast for the rest of the summer, then fall and winter.

[1voyager1]

To break the West Coast's drought will take more than lots of rain and the problems that will come with that.
They need a deep snow pack, probably for several winters to come anywhere near getting relief.
I am originally a West Coaster, grew up in WA, lived most of my adult life in AK with a couple of short stints in SoCal mixed in along the way.
I wish them luck.

[macuu222]

All I know is that this summer has been the hottest in the 20 years I've lived here. I believe it compares to central Florida weather in August. Everything in the house is damp all the time and as soon as you step outside the house your clothes are covered in sweat. I now have air conditioners on 24/7 to get a handle on it. Not looking forward to the electric bills...but it is definitely comfortable. []

[1voyager1]

I had become convinced that it was just me, that I was simply getting old and couldn't deal with the heat anymore.
You've renewed my hope for the future.

We've no AC, but since we've just installed a PV system we're beginning to consider one because of the heat.
So far, open doors and ceiling fans are keeping things tolerable in the house.
But, working out in the yard is dependent on the time of day.

[Kapohocat]

My weather app says 90 deg now "feels like 104" (and that is Pahoa so add 2 deg).

in almost 30 years I do not remember this long term stifling heat all summer long. Maybe a day or two at most in a row. Even in most of August and Sept cool evening breezes. An we enjoyed it knowing Oct/Nov would be rainy and dare I say chilly. Now I cant wait for Oct!!