What's the RE market doing these days?

[Bullwinkle]

Zillow works well for me - out here and on the mainland

[unknownjulie]

ok, then please enlighten us, with some statistical analysis via Zillow please.

[VancouverIslander]

quote:

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Originally posted by kalakoa

How strange -- other subdivisions (not just mine) are seeing a 25% drop in the "official" assessed valuation.

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Assessments are not really a 'real time' evaluation. They tend to be more of a trailing average of the last few years - which results in them not going as high during a bubble or as low during a crash as actual month to month prices. It is a good conservative evaluation that mostly acts to give value relative to other properties fairly accurately instead of giving current market value.

Most of the excess inventory of repossession has been flushed through the system both on the mainland and here in Hawaii. Oahu prices have walked their way back up to '08 levels (although I doubt they've hit '06 bubble levels). Big metropolitan areas generally lead more rural areas into recoveries and bubbles although it seems like both suffer equally when the bubble bursts.

My wife and I invested in rural Puna at what we believed to be the bottom as a part of our retirement planning. Our premise is that inside of 10 years prices will once again reach their bubble pricing due to the massive increase in money supply in the US. The supply of real estate is mostly static so the increase in money supply should eventually lead to higher prices.

On another note, I think it's a pretty good time to invest in rental properties since we are looking like we are at the turnaround point for the RE market and there is a huge oversupply of tenants waiting for housing. A good time to have tenants paying the mortgage and building you equity as long as you keep the rent low enough that you can pick and choose to get the best possible tenants. This is the method we used to pay off our mortgage in a desirable neighborhood on the mainland - buy houses at the bottom, rent them out, sell near the top. Don't be greedy and remember the words of Baron Rothschild - take middle two thirds of any boom as your share and leave the top and bottom 1/6th to those who think they can time those events.

I'm really good at finding bottoms in markets, but terrible at knowing where the tops are so I usually buy at the bottom and sell around 2/3 of the way up. YMMV.

[kalakoa]

quote:

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Assessments are not really a 'real time' evaluation.

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I think County's "assessed valuation" is really pure speculation, just like gas prices.

[Bullwinkle]

@unkj

Being able to get a overview pretty cool - www.zillow.com .... so is doing ones own research - good luck

[unknownjulie]

Wow, I wonder what generation you are from, to think it's ok to use such a "subtle put-down approach" to avoid answering a question.

[kalakoa]

Hardly inappropriate in this case.

[Chunkster]

quote:

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Originally posted by VancouverIslander


This is the method we used to pay off our mortgage in a desirable neighborhood on the mainland - buy houses at the bottom, rent them out, sell near the top.

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It's not nearly so cut and dried here in Hawaii, particularly on the less posh Big Island. As has been said before on Punaweb, Hawaii tenant-landlord law is heavily skewed in favor of the tenant, and evictions are a lengthy and difficult ordeal. I know several landlords who have had nightmare experiences even with professional management to handle most routine matters. I'm not saying nobody makes any money renting out houses because obviously many do. It's just a lot harder in this legal and social environment.

[unknownjulie]

I agree. I never ever ever want to be a landlord again. I'd rather just leave the house sitting there vacant.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

quote:

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Originally posted by unknownjulie

Wow, I wonder what generation you are from

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