Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Storm Track Forecasts Sudden Hurricane For Hawaii
#1
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2014/1...ne-hawaii/

NEWS BRIEFS
•A tropical disturbance southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has become sufficiently organized to deem the system a tropical cyclone, says the National Weather Service. It will be named Ana if it becomes a Tropical Storm, as forecasted.
•The sudden storm appears to be headed towards Hawaii Island. The latest 5 day track places it over the Big Island this weekend as a hurricane.

INSIGHTS

Hawaii Island – in particular the Puna district – is still healing from Hurricane / Tropical Storm Iselle, which hit the Big Island on August 7th. As Hawaii County remains focused on a lava flow that threatens to change the way for life for thousands in the Puna district, the possibility of another hurricane is an unwelcome development.

PRIMARY SOURCES

National Weather Service


Persistent showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance southeast of the main Hawaiian Islands have become sufficiently organized to deem the system a tropical cyclone. 1537z ssm/s and 1359z trmm overpasses detected curved bands that support initiating advisories… As do dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.0/30 kt from phfo and sab. Thus the second cyclone of the 2014 season has formed in the Central Pacific… Tropical Depression Two-c. If the system becomes a tropical storm… It would be named Ana.

Initial motion is 295/09 kt… With the cyclone being steered by a mid level ridge to the north. A westward-moving closed low aloft near the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move steadily west through the forecast period… Allowing the ridge to build north of the system over the next 48 hours. This is expected to keep the system on a general west-northwest track through day 3 while also resulting in a slowing of the forward motion. Toward the end of the forecast period… The ridge will slide eastward as a trough aloft passes by to the north… Resulting in a turn to the northwest and a slight increase in forward speed. The track forecast lies near the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope through day 3. Guidance spread increases toward the end of the period… Primarily due to differences in the strength of the passing trough and its impacts on the ridge. The official forecast closely follows the tvcn consensus at that time.

Intensity guidance indicates that a steady intensification rate can be expected… With shear light and water temperatures sufficiently warm along the forecast track. The official forecast follows suit… And is close to the ships/lgem guidance… Making the system a hurricane by day 2… And maintaining it as a hurricane through day 5.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system through the week.
Reply
#2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST MON OCT 13 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE CYCLONE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAD BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER IT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH HELPED WITH THE DETERMINATION THAT THE
Second advisory puts track a bit more East than dead center Puna:

POSITION ESTIMATE USED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS TOO FAR TO THE
WEST...PROMPTING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE
RECENT IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND PHFO...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IS GIVEN THE HAWAIIAN NAME
ANA.
Reply
#3
The sudden storm today looks like a tropical storm that formed almost on top of the island. We only got the tail end, Maui looks like it is getting hammered. Now, the projection for another possible hurricane heading straight into Kapoho by Saturday. There is an entire band around the equator that is churning maelstroms.

"Mahalo nui Pele, 'ae noho ia moku 'aina" - kakahiaka oli
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
Reply
#4
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=ANA

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=CP022014
Reply
#5
Not ready for another one. No thank you...

Jon in Keaau/HPP
Jon in Keaau/HPP
Reply
#6
GET READY! If this comes in as currently predicted, it will make Iselle look silly! 20' predicted waves on Puna's shores, PLUS storm surge can be a KILLER! Literally.

Good eye, harryd
Reply
#7
Tropical storm Ana is tightening really fast, with a strong center. The storm surge will be making a beeline to Kapoho at the end of the week. The strength of this storm is made more awesome seeing that the storm yesterday was like a bow front for TS Ana.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_...t_loop.gif

Pele used to play ping-pong with her sister Na-mako-o-Kaha'i but it appears Pele has grown weary of this game after one thousand years and is just going to let her sister spin her balls at the kane pins.

"Mahalo nui Pele, 'ae noho ia moku 'aina" - kakahiaka oli
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
Reply
#8
quote:
Originally posted by pahoated

Tropical storm Ana is tightening really fast, with a strong center. The storm surge will be making a beeline to Kapoho at the end of the week.

Kapoho at 19.5N - more like 70 miles below Kapoho around 18.4N is estimated (today at 5 am).

I mean 70 miles isnt much... just trying to keep it accurate... too many rumors flying around.

Reply
#9
70 miles could make a big difference.
Hilo was barely affected by Iselle as Puna was getting pounded.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
Reply
#10
I wonder how those new wind turbines will hold up on South Point should they get hit hard.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)