Any Rain Forecast?

[steve1]

Today I opened lid to catchment tank and notice the first couple feet has dropped. Weather has been pretty nice lately but getting a little dry, and I realize that I can't remember the last time we had a real good rain. Can anyone with meteorological skills explain the drought we are experiencing and when we might get some extended rains in the future?

[birdmove]

We actually got a little rain here on 23rd neat Kaloli about 7:00 tonight. But it didn't last long. I checked the level in our water tank today, and it was still fine. Down about a foot from the top. But, the overflow system kicks in well before the tank is full to the brim. I think it's been weeks since we got a good rain though.

Jon in Keaau/HPP

[TomK]

We're currently close to or are starting a weak El Nino event. El Nino conditions typically mean relatively dry winters here. There's still some uncertainty when and how weak/strong the event will be.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/an...odisc.html

I wouldn't be surprised if this has something to do with the dry weather.

Definitely noticing a lot more dust than usual on my road.

[Mimosa]

Maybe in a week or two we will get about inch / inch half if we are lucky.
After that will be VERY Dry ish till 2nd week of March.
El Nino is starting so this may be the norm till it is la Nina once again.
Just when we start hauling water,it might rain.But we have plenty right now,the water haulers are busy though even now.

[macuu222]

One good thing from this dry spell....my mango tree will have an excellent chance of fruiting. Normally the rain washes away the flowers before they have a chance to get pollinated. Last time we had a dry spell like this was about 5 years ago and it produced almost 1000 mangoes!!

[rbonplaza]

Last good rain we had here in Orchidland was Dec 24- 3.3 inches. Overall, it was the driest December in four years according to my records (9.5 in.) Oct & Nov were good- 15 inches both months and the total for the year was about 140- average. This month I've measured .02 inches, including that short sprinkling yesterday afternoon.

[shave_ice]

quote:

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Originally posted by macuu222

One good thing from this dry spell....my mango tree will have an excellent chance of fruiting. Normally the rain washes away the flowers before they have a chance to get pollinated. Last time we had a dry spell like this was about 5 years ago and it produced almost 1000 mangoes!!

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macuu, that is one thing I am really hoping for too! This is my third year here and my mango tree has yet to fruit, though it has flowered every year. Fingers crossed!

[steve1]

Thanks for all your responses and unfortunately it doesn't look like we will get any relief soon. IF we do enter an El Nino cycle, does the increased water temperature set up a situation for more hurricane potential?

[TomK]

steve1 - El Nino typically means more hurricanes in the eastern and central pacific. It's not so much the increased convection due to warmer ocean temperatures, but the associated weaker upper-level winds. With decreased shear, more hurricanes survive through their development.

[PunaMauka2]

as the catchment level starts to get down there, i find it surprising how much a little careful conservation can slow that water consumption down. may feel humbug at first, but i find can get used to pretty quick. in our typically lush and rain-abundant environs, good for a periodic water appreciation reminder anyhow.

the weather radar imagery sure hasn't been encouraging water-wise lately. looking mighty sparse out there across the waters. i really don't want to buy water, probably downpour if i do. next week, next week.