Time to start watching HURRICANE GUILLERMO (09=E)

[Ino]

This is probably way more info than you need but since you asked;

GOES 12, launched on July 23, 2001, providing coverage for South America
GOES 13, launched on May 24, 2006, in operation as GOES East, returned to operations 18 Oct 2012 after an anomaly
GOES 14, launched on June 27, 2009, standby spacecraft, located at 90 degrees W as of Dec 2012
GOES 15, launched on March 4, 2010, in operation as GOES West starting December 14, 2011

As long as GOES EAST and GOES WEST are operating correctly we will be able to monitor any storm in the Pacific. We rely heavily on these satellites for weather forecasting and any loss of info would have dire consequences for weather forecasting. So the US was very smart to put a standby satellite GOES 14 in orbit in 2009 in case of any satellite failure.

I am really looking forward to GOES R's launch next year 2016. This satellite should dramatically improve monitoring of;

Three times more spectral information
Four times greater spatial resolution
Five times faster coverage
Real-time mapping of total lightning activity
Increased thunderstorm and tornado warning lead time
Improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts
Improved monitoring of solar x-ray flux
Improved monitoring of solar flares and coronal mass ejections
Improved geomagnetic storm forecasting

And especially for Hawaii, the real time monitoring of lightning will be much improved, tracking and monitoring hurricanes should be much better- storm track cone should get much smaller and forecasting intensity of hurricanes will improve!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOES-R#/me...Poster.png

As for sensible weather we are coming off a very long period of relatively cool sea surface temperatures (SST);
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

That's why you'll notice it's much more humid than what we are used to. PDO is a normal oscillation and we could go warm for a long time except what's looking like an all time record El Nino event will be closely followed by it's counterpart La Nina as you can see in the chart at the top of the page and we'll get less humidity in the air.

Reliable and detailed weather records really only go back to the satellite era- since 1979-35 years is a very short time band to place much emphasis on. In other words what we think is normal or average is constantly changing because our records are so short in time.

[TomK]

"Reliable and detailed weather records really only go back to the satellite era- since 1979-35 years is a very short time band to place much emphasis on. In other words what we think is normal or average is constantly changing because our records are so short in time."

Thank you, Ino, you can never post more information than I need to know! I certainly understand your point, it's something common in many science areas. Technology improves, we become better at detecting stuff and can make modern observations sometimes very difficult to compare to older measurements, and it's something you always have to be aware of when trying to understand things in the long-term.

[leilanidude]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#GUILLERMO
Select Warnings/Cone Static Images

Expected path has been updated. Might really suck to be on Maui on Thursday, not to mention the East side of Hawaii Island on Wednesday.

[Kapohocat]

It's pouring down here now...

Is this the remnants of Felicia?

[Lodestone]

Forecasting hurricane paths has improved immensely, but it still dicey for more than 48 hours out. Here's the latest from Weather Underground. Note that anywhere within the circles is a viable path, and we're well within Thursday's circle. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ea...o?map=5day

[ericlp]

I predict will get maybe a few strong 40MPH gusts from this, but mostly just rain as it fizzles out before it get's to the big island. Looks like eye is already getting weaker. JMO obviously. []

[leilanidude]

Too many people focus only on the eye. The storm itself is many times larger than the Big Island.

[pahoated]

Arrives 8/5 as tropical depression. It will be pushing a lot of moisture ahead of it for the next several days and it could get really wet and windy.

"Aloha also means goodbye. Aloha!"

[Guest]

When did hurricane Iselle arrive last year? Seems like yesterday everytime I drive by lava tree park or the Geothermal power plant. Sure hope Geothermal's hurricane or storm plans can go a bit smoother this time without the evacuation scares or the releasing of toxic gasses or steam? Not looking forward to the power being out again for days or weeks either, if the albesia start to snap, crack, and fall.
This part of the big island can get hit very hard by these types of storms. Whether the storm veers north or slides south at the last minute, puna usually gets plenty of surf, wind, and rain. Kapoho could experience the always dangerous storm surge from this hurricane as well. Thankfully Iselle had great timing and was trying to make landfall during the night. So many were at home in safe rooms and not stuck on our roads coming or going from work. Be prepared and Stay safe.

[Carey]

Iselle hit Thursday evening, Aug. 7, 2014