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It looks like Guillermo will be the start of a busy hurricane season. Walking along the ocean this summer I can feel how much warmer the water is due to El Nino. In the past a cool sea breeze would reliably blow along the cliffs even on the hottest days. This year the breeze may still be there, but it's languid, not invigorating. Here's a prognosis of what's in store for us in the future by a professor at UH. He's not a meteorologist, he's a geologist working with experts in other disciplines:
“If you do not like it hot and do not want to be hit by a hurricane, the options of where to go are very limited,” said Camilo Mora, a geography professor at the University of Hawaii and lead author of a paper published in Nature last year predicting that unprecedented high temperatures will become the norm worldwide by 2047.
“The best place really is Alaska,” he added. “Alaska is going to be the next Florida by the end of the century.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/scienc....html?_r=1
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
Almost appears as if this storm that was a cat 2 hurricane, is dumping rain in California now. Those upper level winds(pineapple express?) must be strong. Some of the forest fires this summer in California are really out of control, they could use the rain more than these islands. Secrets surf spot down pohoiki was just off the hook the past couple of days, Anyone know if or when any of the waves associated with this large storm might start arriving?
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quote:
Originally posted by gypsy69
Almost appears as if this storm that was a cat 2 hurricane, is dumping rain in California now. Those upper level winds(pineapple express?) must be strong. Some of the forest fires this summer in California are really out of control, they could use the rain more than these islands. Secrets surf spot down pohoiki was just off the hook the past couple of days, Anyone know if or when any of the waves associated with this large storm might start arriving?
That rain in California is not from this storm, this storm is moving in a W/NW direction and California is pretty far to the east of us. The surf watch has been cancelled for everyone but the East sides of the Big Island and Maui, Hilo Bay was flat this morning , but Maku'u cliffs had some big waves last night with sets of little ones punctuated by sets of big ones.
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That rain in California is not from this storm...
Actually this satellite image would suggest it is:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/still.cgi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=hus&anim=no&size=large&thumbs=&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off
and if you want to see it played out as a sequence try this link:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...gi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=hus&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off&animtype=flash
The thing is the upper level shear that has been knocking down Guillermo for the last few days is pushing all that moisture to the east while the surface winds are still driving it to the west. A real good way to see this is the wind modeling at:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/win...,34.96,516
where you can change the height in the atmosphere you want plotted via the earth link (bottom left on page and then select a height). The transition occurs at about 500 hPa.
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Cool link you got there here:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/win...,34.96,516
add in the surface temperature, humidity to it, They've even added levels of upper and lower currents, it's awesome. Reminds me back in an Ocean or Geo class, near 40 year ago, learning to imagine this, and now it's at our finger tips. That program is going to integrate so much more, prob turn into an algorithm that will tell ya if your door step gets the only rain drop that fell, 2 days in advance.
quote:
Originally posted by dakine
That rain in California is not from this storm...
Actually this satellite image would suggest it is:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/still.cgi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=hus&anim=no&size=large&thumbs=&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off
and if you want to see it played out as a sequence try this link:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...gi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=hus&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off&animtype=flash
The thing is the upper level shear that has been knocking down Guillermo for the last few days is pushing all that moisture to the east while the surface winds are still driving it to the west. A real good way to see this is the wind modeling at:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/win...,34.96,516
where you can change the height in the atmosphere you want plotted via the earth link (bottom left on page and then select a height). The transition occurs at about 500 hPa.
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv+12
Really seems like the best site to watch what is happening imo
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The clouds being pulled off Guillermo by shear are being sent eastwards by the jet stream. These are mid to high-level clouds, as evidenced by the transition occurring at roughly 17,000 feet (50-kPa, 500-hPa). They aren't rain-bearing clouds, and sites on the California coast underneath those clouds are not reporting rain.
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Forget Guillermo. Here comes 92 E in its wake.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather/vide...rds-hawaii
-Veritas odium parit”(Terence 195–159 BC))-"Truth begets hatred".
-Veritas odium parit”(Terence 195–159 BC))-"Truth begets hatred".
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1425 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become better organized during the
past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form tonight or Thursday while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Guillermo is done with us
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
2100 UTC WED AUG 05 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY
AND MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI
AND KAHOOLAWE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
