HILDA TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR BI

[Lodestone]

The problem is that any forecast more than 72 hours out is crap (and some next day forecasts fail as well) ... yet they keep trying to do forecasts a week into the future because the people WANNA KNOW NOW.

[PunaMauka2]

When potentially dangerous weather is involved, naturally I'd like to know the best guess this evolving field of science based forecasting can provide. Otherwise, if nothing critical is on the line I'm usually quite content to wait and see what weather the next day will bring.

[shockwave rider]

quote:

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Originally posted by PunaMauka2

When potentially dangerous weather is involved, naturally I'd like to know the best guess this evolving field of science based forecasting can provide. Otherwise, if nothing critical is on the line I'm usually quite content to wait and see what weather the next day will bring.

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I always take the weather guessers with a grain of salt and mentally file reports on a sliding scale from vaguely possible to highly probable. I'd rather be prepared and not need it than be caught off guard and unprepared.

[terracore]

The current "forecast cone" is changing so quickly its now showing a direct hit to Ka'u. If it tracks further south than that.... please discuss...


ETA: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Hilda

[Carey]

Modeling can only be as good as the data going in. There is very little data for central pacific cyclonic storms with SST's as high as they are this year...Our island has been near the 28deg C mark for the last month (Guillermo did us a slight cooling favor... just about a 1/2 degree C reduction on SSTs on the east side)

Right now this storm potential track (that 'cone of probability') is quite spread out...there is no clear path that most of the models are in agreement with at this point... so it is a storm to keep watching...

The amount of potential energy in that is available per degree C recorded as SSTs is quite impressive...and each meter down that the temp exists adds more potential energy for the Huriricane to gain....over the total sq. mileage these storms travel in warm water... lots of potential there for some really impressive storm formation...

[terracore]

So a few days ago when Hilda was "forecasted" to track far north from us the spaghetti models showed it going..... well, essentially where it's going.

Taking this into consideration, anybody want to wager wind speeds?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

If the storm comes in Cape Kumukahi or Ka'u, 35 mph. Plus higher gusts.

[PunaMauka2]

Since NOAA merely makes wild random guesswork with it's useless forecasting based on high-tech sorcery, after consulting my trusty farmer's almanac and a quick call to my meteoroastrologer, I will put my money on 155 mph sustained winds, Wednesday afternoon, direct hit on Kapoho after a shifty juke towards Hilo.

[leilaniguy]

Gee thanks, that's swell.

[TomK]

Leilaniguy, PM2 is just having a bit of fun!

The more southerly track is actually a good thing, it shows Hilda is weakening a little quicker than originally expected. Recent satellite images show it started encountering some significant shear today, and the weaker it becomes, the more the trade winds influence the track, hence a more southerly track.

The Hurricane Hunters took off late this afternoon and are probably in the system right now. When the data from that mission gets into the forecast, we should have a much better idea of what to expect. I'm hoping that'll be in the 11pm update tonight.