HILDA TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR BI

[rainyjim]

I'm excited to hear Tomk's comment on Pahoated's comment about pluto on page 8.

/popcorn

[TomK]

Rainyjim - I'm not going to spend much effort on this. Probabilistic variables describe a probability distribution, predictive calculations is a term PT made up.

New Horizons' trajectory was based on simple, good old-fashioned Newtonian mechanics.

[TomK]

Impressive convection in Hilda this evening. It's pulsing but the current activity shows there's a lot of moisture out there. These images can be a little misleading, as convection creates the high clouds which are then torn off by upper level winds, so the area of convection is likely not as large as it looks.

I'm looking at:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/

Pick the image you like and if you have java, click on the java link below the image. You can choose the timescale you want. Note that the visible images only update during the day, for obvious reasons.

Not one for dialup, sorry.

[beepbeep]

Wondering jealously who Tom's dear friend is . And wanted to make clear it wasn't me!

Long day today. Argentine ants got into the hermit crab tank. Huge cleanup job.

Pest control found and killed massive nests outside.
The only good Argentine ant is a dead one. Very invasive.

But those fire ants you have...I don't know how you stand it! My face is all swollen from just a couple of mosquito bites!

Our ants are coming inside for any drops of moisture they can find. Please send us your extra water....

Pam in CA

[TomK]

Dakine,

"And yes that line, Easy to see these mountains had a huge effect on Iselle. says it all."

Iselle impacted the island (why didn't the mountains deflect it beforehand?). Of course the mountains impacted the Iselle. How on earth wouldn't they? However, your claim is about Hilda, which hasn't reached the island yet nor is it in the Big Island's wind shadow. So how is the track being affected by Mauna Loa or Mauna Kea? Just back up your claim. Simple.

[Wao nahele kane]

http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upl..._id=116136

[PunaMauka2]

Power is still on up mauka. Don't know for how much longer though. Just saw a hapu'u frond sway in a sudden soft breeze.

[Ino]

After being torn apart by the Subtropical Jet stream, what remains of Hilda has gotten caught up in the trade wind flow pushing the center far to the South. In it's wake there is a tremendous amount of moisture left laying around the Central Pacific from earlier convection from Hilda. Unfortunately a TUTT or tropical upper tropospheric trough is heading our way from the East.

If this gets here with the abundant moisture left laying around it will lead to torrential downpours and dew points will remain in the 70's and sticky, humid conditions will continue. There was hope that the passage of Hilda to the South would increase pressure gradients enough to blow the humid air to the SW and this may still happen on Fri. but after that the TUTT from the East will draw up moist air out of the South.

As a long time weather observer I get calls from the NWS asking about flooding here. I live at about 1500' elevation and the ground seems very porous to me and there have only been 2 times since I've moved here 7 years ago that I actually observed some flooding here at my location.

I know that others on this island face a greater flood risk than my area and The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is nearing the end of a multi-year effort to update and modernize the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Hawai‘i County. The updated maps will help community officials and local residents better identify known flood risks and when finalized, will be used for flood insurance, land use and development decisions.

Personnel from FEMA, the state Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Hawai‘i County will be available to answer questions, concerns, and provide information on the mapping timeline and appeals process. The meeting schedule is as follows:

Monday. August 17, 2015
Aupuni Center (101 Pauahi Street, Hilo 96720)
Doors open 4:30 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. presentation 6:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015
West Hawai‘i Civic Center (75-5044 Ane Keohokalole Highway, Bldg. G, Kailua Kona 96740)
Doors open 4:30 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. presentation 6:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.

If you're unable to attend these meetings you can access some good info here (hopefully this is updated by tomorrow 8-14-2015);
http://gis.hawaiinfip.org/fhat/

Some models were predicting a worse case scenario if Hilda had stalled as it passed to our South with rainfall predicted to be in the upper third of all-time. The models have since backed off from this but the TUTT from the East could cause large amounts of rain to fall here. Fortunately at this time it looks like the heaviest rain will be North of the Big Island.

[Carey]

Rain on Mauna Kea Summit...& just heard a crack of thunder...although still a little warm for snow...maybe later...
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/cams/...mode=multi

ADDH reports that in Kona you can see the clouds circling around the mountain..ominously cool!


& Honolii Stream gauge just had a huge surge of water (1st graph - rate is exponential, 2nd - linear):
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?16717000

Wailuku was a little behind, but is also nice
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?16704000

[TomK]

"Honolii Stream gauge just had a huge surge of water (1st graph - rate is exponential, 2nd - linear):
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?16717000"

A ten-foot rise in water level in about an hour, or an increase in the flow rate of roughly 3,500%. That's quite impressive! Thanks for the link!