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Tropical Depression 3-C 700 mis. SE of Hilo
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08-20-2015, 04:22 AM
Here is the latest: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
It looks like the first bands of clouds from this system are about to arrive from the SE. 
08-20-2015, 06:50 AM
latest weather forecast:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1002 AM HST THU AUG 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A PERSISTENT VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT A BIT AS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY START TO BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE. ... http://weather.hawaii.edu/current/bulletins.cgi?bulletin=NWS-discussion&banner=uhmet&timequeue=0&productqueue=0
08-20-2015, 08:57 AM
With warmer sea surface temperatures and less severe upper level shear this could be a damaging hurricane when it hits. The latest track has it arriving to SW Kauai on Tuesday. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Three-C
08-20-2015, 11:57 AM
Currently forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday well to the south west of the Big Island before turning north and headed towards Kauai. With it's southerly track it has the potential to be the next "big one". Hopefully it steers clear of Kauai.
08-20-2015, 02:21 PM
Its on a similar track as Iniki which formed during a strong El Nino year too BTW.
If I was on Kauai I'd be getting nervous about this one.
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
08-21-2015, 04:19 AM
Yes, looks very bad for Kauai and perhaps even Oahu. Does anyone recall what Big Island weather/winds were like when Iniki was passing on its way to Kauai?
08-21-2015, 04:34 AM
Sept 5- 13, 1992 I was camping at Kalani Honua with about 200 kids from Parker School. LOTS of rain, huge surf at Pohiki. Wind I dont remember much so it must not have been bad. This was before time of cells and social media keeping us up on everything so the word "hurricane" was barely even mentioned - (and Kalani had no phone back then) until it turned the corner below south point and was heading towards Oahu/Kauai. By the time I got back to Puako (as storm was just even with Puako - latitude-wise) there was HUGE surf rolling in there. But not tons of rain. Kawaihae was breaking BIG and you could see the waves as soon as you left Waimea where you can first see the breakwall at Kawaihae. Kinda scary as we had just moved into our place on Puako Bch Dr - ocean side - a week before! We had an eight ft sea wall and the waves came up in minutes it seemed, and just lapped the top of the sea wall. We got some water in the actual yard but didnt flood the house (we were in a high spot). The house next to us - no sea wall, and lower than our yard got flooded. ETA: this is back when a ocean-side beach shack in Puako was $800/mo and our friends all thought we were crazy for paying so much!!! 
08-21-2015, 09:07 AM
"Does anyone recall what Big Island weather/winds were like when Iniki was passing on its way to Kauai?"
I remember the sky to the south out over the ocean had a strange color and look about it. Don't remember any wind. Huge swells were slowly rolling in against the cliffs in HPP (Kaloli side). At one point during a particularly big set I briefly wound up with ocean water up to my waist as I held onto an ironwood tree. There was no rush of water back out over the cliff so it probably sounds more terrifying than it actually was.
08-21-2015, 01:12 PM
The water west of Hawaii has become very warm in the last couple of weeks. This is going to intensify this hurricane before it hits Kauai. But I hope I'm wrong.
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