|
HURRICANES IGNACIO AND JIMENA TRACKING NORTH
|
08-30-2015, 06:55 AM
quote: Spent a lot of time in Asia. The disrespect (and yes, love) can be mutual, and it goes round and round and round.
***Still can't figure out how to spell 'car' correctly***
08-30-2015, 07:12 AM
The disrespect (and yes, love) can be mutual, and it goes round and round and round
Clockwise? Or counterclockwise? What I'm asking is... like a hurricane? GREAT NEWS! 11 AM (2 PM PST) Sunday update on Jimena shows it shifting dramatically to the north which would take it far out of range of the islands. Again... too early to know anything for certain, but it's very good news: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...k#contents
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
08-30-2015, 07:27 AM
^Shoots. What a relief.
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
08-30-2015, 08:14 AM
What sort of wind speeds did Iselle generate here in Puna to knock down all those trees?
Looks like Ignacio won't get much higher than 30mph.
08-30-2015, 01:29 PM
That sounds about right. Wiki says:
Tropical storm-force winds affected much of the state as Iselle moved through, with Hawaii, Kahoolawe, Kauai, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu islands all reporting gusts over 39 mph (63 km/h). Hurricane-force winds were confined to Mauna Kea on the Big Island, where a peak gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) was observed.[49] Strongest winds were at the peaks.
08-30-2015, 02:29 PM
Still going to be some high waves hitting the northeast shore. There were white breaking waves hitting the Hilo bay jetty today. Probably some spectacular scenes down on the beach, at a safe distance.
"Aloha also means goodbye. Aloha!"
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
08-30-2015, 02:52 PM
quote: You're a newbie so you get a pass. This time. But just so you know, TomK is a gentleman, a wit, an intellectual, an accomplished human being, and one of the most decent and fair contributors to this forum. And this thread was supposed to be about the bloody hurricanes, not the Hawaiian Freakin' Kingdom. Does every single topic of conversation have to devolve into how the Evil White Europeans stole your tropical paradise? Every. Single. Topic? 
08-30-2015, 03:30 PM
Here is the latest from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center...
Quote: WTPA43 PHFO 310318 TCDCP3 HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015 500 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PASS THROUGH THE EYE OF IGNACIO MAINTAINED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 961 MB. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 99 KNOTS...THE SFMR PICKED UP WINDS OF 106 KT ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS DEFINITELY STARTING TO TAKE A TOLL ON IGNACIO AS THE SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE AS THE EYE BECOMES CLOUD-FILLED AND INDISTINCT...THE EYEWALL IS OPEN AND DETERIORATING...AND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TOWARD A WEAK BUT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS CARRIED IGNACIO A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY THAN FIRST EXPECTED...AND THUS WE ARE DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS AS IGNACIO BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED. A STRONGER DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PICK UP IGNACIO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...PULLING IT NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. OUR FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS CLOSELY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN TRENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE DAYS 3-5 TIME FRAME ASSUMING A SYSTEM WEAKER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS OF SHEAR NOW IMPACTING IGNACIO...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO IGNACIO/S HOURS AS A HURRICANE...MUCH LESS A MAJOR ONE...ARE NUMBERED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED... SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS IGNACIO BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE SHEAR MIGHT TEMPORARILY WEAKEN IN THE LONGER TIME RANGES...BUT BY THEN IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SUB-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES LATITUDE 30N. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 19.8N 149.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 20.8N 150.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.9N 151.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 23.0N 153.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 24.0N 154.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 25.9N 157.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 28.1N 161.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 32.0N 163.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD End quote. - emphasis mine to maximize the fear monger factor by instilling terror and promoting hysteria. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1508310318
08-30-2015, 04:04 PM
I think the NHC and CPHC look at all the spaghetti models and then pick the worst case scenario for the Official track.
If they did a more statistical analyses based on all the models it would probably look a lot different. But then if they were wrong it could have devastating consequences.
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
|
|
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »
|
