Yet another wet weekend?

[TomK]

From the MKWC:

http://goo.gl/bK3ywm

"This influx of tropical moisture is slated to arrive around Friday/Saturday, and coupled with instability associated with the low, may help to dismantle the inversion, contributing to a mostly saturated air mass over the weekend. There is also a possibility that embedded lows will develop with this frontal band, which further complicates the forecast during that time. Regardless, while there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the development of this Kona Low and its affects, it certaintly warrants an increase in the risk for fog, high humidity and precipitation at the summit over the weekend and (though not reflected in this forecast) probably for the early part of next week."

From the NWS - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/AFD.php

"The global models continue to show a trough aloft far north of the area digging south rapidly. A surface low will cut off to the northeast of the islands by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, one or more tropical disturbances may develop in an area of disturbed weather associated with the monsoon trough southwest of the main Hawaiian islands along 15°N.

The models suggest that the wintry trough to the northeast may pull moisture up over the islands from the deep tropics. One or more tropical cyclones could even move toward the islands from the southwest. So, the weather over the islands may become very unsettled starting as early as Saturday and continuing into at least the first half of next week. At this time the details of this complex pattern are still unclear."

When do I get to mow the lawn? Or get some observations done?

[Guest]

Not sure what tropical cyclones the report is referring to, doesn't appear to be any organized systems around Hawaii at the moment. The system to be concerned with at the moment is in the Atlantic Ocean, it's making a turn for the east coast. This hurricane(joaquin)looks to have a wide cone or range of where it will make landfall. Jmo here, Folks in D.C., New York, or the Carolinas might want to consider a vacation to New Orleans or Hawaii for next week.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/...coast-2015

P.S. I Guess tropical Cyclones could develop quickly this time of year in Hawaii??

[TomK]

Forecasts seem to be firming up. Lots of moisture about to be pulled up over the islands and tropical systems forming to the south that will just add to the available moisture above us. If you need to carry out lawn mower maintenance, this might be the weekend to do it!

Hoping Ino might chime in, really appreciate his inputs.

[Ino]

Recently someone posted a post mentioning Puna Weather on Facebook. So I joined and have switched my weather posts over to there. It seems more apppropiate to post weather stuff there.

Here's a very heavily edited post from there;

Could the next few storms be the last of the Super Soakers? (1" inch or more of rainfall in a day, continuing for a series of days). Who knows but it's looking like it could be.

Weather conditions in the North Central Pacific are changing much faster than what would be considered normal for this time of year. Of course a big chunk of cold air from Siberia that slammed thru Alaska will do that- it's just real early. Normal time for this to happen would be mid/late Oct. sometimes not even until Nov. for the cold air to get this far South in such a large quantity.

Looking at the satellite you can see the cold air pouring South across the North Central Pacific.

As the cold air associated with the storm that brought historic snowfall to Alaska;
http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/
pours South there is a counter flow of warm air that will pour North. And we're right where the two air masses are poised to meet. The wx models are all over the place so they're hard to figure- hence you'll hear the words "it's a complex situation" and it is. A butterfly flaps her wings and everything shifts by hundreds of miles. The Chaos theory can make weather forecasting humbling.

At times during the next week it looks like the cold and warm air will meet right over Hawaii. This is when we get really wet like the last two Sundays. Lowering freezing levels will knock out the inversions and create unstable conditions (cold on top of warm). Imagine an ice cube on top of a steam kettle.

Colder air on a air mass scale modifies the tropical air. Hence over time the moist warm air column is reduced vertically and horizontally. Reducing the amount of moisture available and tropical system will have a much harder time developing in our very near future.

To sum up we should get soaked this weekend and next week could be very wet. Also the models are showing tropical system development maybe even 2 at one time-dumb belling around each other, to our South and Southwest, in what could be the last big tropical storm/hurricane threat this year to Hawaii because of the air mass modification mentioned above.

Hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30th but we already are well past the peak conditions for tropical development because of the cold air that's already been delivered. Can you feel it? I sure can here at 1500' currently it's 64 degrees.

At this time and lucky for us any systems that do develop, will develop close to us and will not be able to come at us on a long track gathering up moisture and not be able to feed off the warm waters for a long period of time. Still if a tropical system develops and then moves over us and stalls we could get historic rains just like Charleston, South Carolina is predicted to receive tomorrow I believe. Anyway you look at it it's going to get interesting!!

You can monitor the current tropical systems here;
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
Click on your storm of interest.

[TomK]

"Recently someone posted a post mentioning Puna Weather on Facebook. So I joined and have switched my weather posts over to there. It seems more apppropiate to post weather stuff there."

That's a shame, Ino. Facebook is the spawn of the devil. Have fun over there, but some of us will miss your expertise!

[Punatic007]

Thanks for starting this thread well in advance. I got lots of necessary things dependent on sun not rain done this week that I may have put off till the weekend and regretted.

[MarkP]

I'm actually going to need it. A hose connection failed and my pump emptied my tank through my mechanical room until it failed too. Of course if I can't fix the pump I won't miss having water in the tank.

[Punatic007]

quote:

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Originally posted by MarkP

I'm actually going to need it. A hose connection failed and my pump pumped a couple thousand gallons into my mechanical room until it failed too. Of course if I can't fix the pump I won't miss having water in the tank.

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Oh that sounds like fun.

[MarkP]

I had started a load of laundry before leaving to possibly offset a dollar or two in gas costs by using the sun my PV system normally sheds during the day. Now I have to get a new pump.

[TomK]

Tropical depression Seven-C has formed a few hundred miles south of us and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane. Current tracks have it meandering around for a bit before heading north. Worth keeping an eye on.

Might be wrong, but I think it'll be called Oho.