Rain forecast, Ino?

[eigoya]

Last week I was conserving water for predicted rain on Tuesday which came and went without (or scarcely) a drop. Will we get an inch (or more?) this weekend in lower Puna? My NOAA pages keep defaulting to Hilo or Pahoa, and Both water haulers I've used are out for repairs, so I am in conservation mode. Any predictions?

[Lee M-S]

wow, I'm in Mt. View, and my tanks all got refilled this week.

[eigoya]

Yeah, my coworker in HA said that today which is why I thought Im in an alternate Punaverse this month....

[Kenney]

Aloha Eigoya.You are not alone in the arid alternate Punaverse. Dry as a bone here in mid HPP.
Hoping Ino has some good (wet) news . It's a good thing water conservation is a way of life for us here.

[Ino]

Don’t buy any water, we’re just about to get clobbered.

People on the Eastern USA keep asking where’s the cold air? It’s been in the North Pacific this Winter and it’s heading our way. Aloft it’s already unusually cold and it’s going to get colder. Hilo had a 11,400’ Freezing level on 2-22-17 and this cold air was a main reason intense thunderstorms with lots of lightning bloomed on the flanks of Mauna Loa over by Kona. At the surface warm moist air from the South/Southeast is ready to meet this cold air and eventually push the cold air North about Weds. This should end the downpours as the cold air gets shoved North.

You probably know the pattern here. When there’s this kind of cold air aloft and warm moist air underneath, it’s like steam hitting an ice cube and it can rain here and then rain some more as the dynamics seem unlimited. This dynamic process will be at the top of it’s form in the afternoons. Thunderstorms might develop. Mauna Kea could get a foot of snow when the deepest moisture gets here Sun. night thru Tues. night. The flow out of the SE will meet the cold air to the NW. Expect the rain to start on Sunday and lighten up on Thurs., heaviest in the afternoons as the sun warms the moist air and it rises and condenses right over our heads.

That said the strongest dynamics will stay North of the islands. While our rain will be enhanced by orographic lift- ocean areas to our North will see the most mixing of the different air masses- hence the strongest dynamics--highest wind, most rain and the most instability.

I recently posted this on a different forum-it’s long (sorry) simplified and out of context but I wanted to share the links;

Once again North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue to drive global and local atmospheric patterns. The recent reversal of warm SSTs to cold SSTs in the North Pacific has been responsible for the storms reaching Calif. and the entire West Coast the last few months and this will continue. Cold air pouring out of the Arctic have been supported by these cool SSTs instead of being dissipated by warm SSTs. The warm SSTs caused the drought years on the West Coast and in particular California.

Illustrated here Major implications for Hawaii as this cold water is sinking South;
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/images/late...70204P.jpg

This shows satellite sea level measurement as of 2-4-2017. Red/Orange colors indicate where the warm water has expanded and warmed and blue colors show where the cold water is shrinking and sinking.

Latest El Nino/La Nina watch here;
https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/el...atestdata/

For past history here- I haven’t seen such cold SSTs in the NE Pacific since 2011;
https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/el...a/archive/

Excellent info here on this site! Thank you Jason 3 and JPL!

Caught up in the flow-where will the water go?;
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:...2.png#file

Ocean currents are constantly moving as illustrated here- colors show speed not temperatures;
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/GRTOF...lash.shtml

Close-up of ocean currents near Hawaii;
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/...lash.shtml

Want warm water to swim in?-Track it here High resolution SSTs models for the Hawaiian islands;
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/...lash.shtml

Global SSTs anomalies are shown here;
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomal...6.2017.gif

To see the cold SSTs movement check out the previous dates..

Forecasts of SSTs this Summer indicate that above average SSTs will persists NW of Hawaii and the cool SSTs flow down to our East.
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/...tlook.html

Click on target season to advance to our Tropical wx season and you’ll see the forecast is for the cold water to plunge south along the West Coast. Last year we had tropical wx systems develop to our East due to above average SSTs there –this year it looks like that is much less likely to happen as the cold SSTs push South.

We will be on the edge of the warm SSTs to our NW and the cool SSTs to our East. Whenever you are on the edge between two separate water masses, this results in increased wind shear;
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=cpac&pkg=ashear&runtime=2017021906&fh=4&xpos=0&ypos=276

Click on your month of interest and if you click on our tropical weather season May –Nov. you’ll see this is where higher than average wind shear will be. It’s a little early to predict our tropical weather season but this movement of cold SSTs needs to be monitored.

Storm surge calculator for Hawaii or click on the area near you above;;
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=HAWI&plot=srg&loop=1#contents

Long range SSTs forecast;
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/decadal/

The dip in SSTs here-this is what helps Hawaii avoid full strength tropical wx systems;
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/...or3gl.html

Anomaly;
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/...or4gl.html

ENSO info here;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/an...ts-web.pdf

What are the chances of El Nino or la Nina coming up?;
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/cl...-cpc_plume

Here what the ensemble of models are indicating for the Nino regions to our South.
Current forecasts are mostly showing neutral conditions expected this tropical season;
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/cl...o/current/

This might be TMI but I thought I would just put it in there- I hope you enjoy the info and if you have questions there is always more and more data –you just have to know where to look!

[Kenney]

Mahalo Ino!

[ohiagrrl]

Was googling "Jet Stream Chaos" but found this:

http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/globa...strophe-2/

Now I get why people are so freaked out by "chem trails"....anyone know if there's any truth to this assertion?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

"chem trails"....anyone know if there's any truth to this assertion?

None whatsoever.
I remember looking into the sky as a child in the 1950's and 1960's, and we had jet trails even then. Sometimes they would criss-cross the sky depending on how many cold war military flights were in training.

You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

[ohiagrrl]

Primal, Reread article:

"The global geoengineering/weather modification/chemtrail programs have likely been going on for over six decades. Recently found documents from the NASA archives indicate that these programs already had budgets into the hundreds of millions of dollars even by the mid 1960's."

"Aluminum is the primary element named in numerous geoengineering patents. The same patents that describe dispersing this aluminum from jets for the expressed purpose of blocking the sun which is exactly what we see aircraft "trails" doing in our skies day in and day out, creating artificial cloud cover and haze which blocks direct sunlight. It is important to remember this contamination is not local, but global in scope.... Snow tests taken from the side of Mt. Shasta showed aluminum content as high as 61,000 PPB. (parts per billion). This level of aluminum in the snow is tens of thousands of times anything that might be considered "normal background" contamination."

"The disruption in the hydrological cycle can also cause record rainfall (as well as respective drought) as rain which was kept from falling in one location migrates elsewhere to come down in a deluge. The conditions described above are known consequences of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) and solar radiation management (SRM) ."

"Wind current pattern changes in turn trigger ocean current changes. Most are completely unaware of the wind and ocean current changes occurring around the globe. Even fewer are aware of the ramifications which are already unfolding from these changes. Ocean current changes are already delivering warmer waters to regions with vast undersea methane deposits. These deposits are known as "methane hydrate" deposits and literally hold life on earth in the balance. Many regions around the globe are beginning to expel methane from hydrate and clathrate deposits. The East Siberian Shelf of the Arctic is already releasing en masse. All available data indicates that this event alone is changing our biosphere by the day."

These aren't even the scariest highlights of this guys data and he has several links in his article to follow the info trail. I saw a sky yesterday that looked almost identical to the one he presented which is why I posted to this link re: no rain/deluge. Read the whole article and follow his links. Yikes.

[knieft]

a 10 second duckduckgo search:

https://www.metabunk.org/debunked-geoeng...ails.t138/

As usual the comments are the best.

Cheers,
Kirt