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Our resident earthquake predictor is taking a break so I'll make use of the opportunity to predict one at magnitude 5 or over somewhere in the state of Hawaii before October 31st 2017.
This is a completely unscientific guess, based on a rash of earthquakes around the Pacific in the last few weeks. My brain has made the connection based on past observations, I just want to get this one on the record.
Anytime is a good time to look around your house and think what could fall over in an earthquake, especially new and large TVs.
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That's actually a bold prediction. There haven't been many 5+ quakes recently, a 5.3 in Volcano three months ago, and a 5.2 two years ago, also in Volcano:
https://earthquaketrack.com/r/hawaii-haw...g_filter=5
And since our resident earthquake predictor isn't here to specify a location, I'll just suggest that according to the chart at the link above, Volcano or Pahala seem to be places with a whole lot of shakin' going on. I'm certainly not predicting the next quake will occur in those locations though. Not my job description.
The Donner Party really wasn't that great of a party, was it?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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How is this related to PGV?
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Interesting article, but nobody has managed to do it yet.
There was a recent earthquake in Mexico, another one there a few weeks ago, a couple near Japan today,
some near the Auckland Islands a few days ago and I think also one in Vanuatu (I get email alerts).
I remember Hawaii got a quake just after the big one in Japan in 2011 (more than 6 years ago, still
waiting for all that radioactivity that some predicted; they should send back those faulty geiger counters).
I hope (and expect) I'm wrong. Hawaii has a lot less big quakes than I thought.
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It's a long read and definitely on the scholarly side, but might be of interest to some. Earthquake prediction doesn't have a good record when carefully analyzed:
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.p.../view/5350
This is from the full article:
"
Despite over a century of scientific effort, the understanding of earthquake predictability remains immature. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to predict large earthquakes in the deterministic short-term sense. The Commission has identified no method for the short-term prediction of large earthquakes that has been demonstrated to be both reliable and skillful.
In particular, the search for precursors that are diagnostic of an impending earthquake has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. The Commission has critically reviewed the scientific literature on phenomena proposed as diagnostic precursors, including strain-rate changes, changes in seismic wave velocities, electromagnetic signals, changes in groundwater levels and flow, radon anomalies, and acoustic emissions. In well monitored regions, retrospective analyses of data collected prior to large earthquakes, including the L'Aquila mainshock of 6 April 2009, show no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors."
Edited to replace the control characters in the quoted text.
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Question: Where is the best place to go during a big earthquake?
Answer: A bamboo grove.
What, there isn't one nearby? For shame.
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You will do just as well reading tea leaves. My attitude is that we're ALWAYS due for a quake. But do we earthquake proof our home? Eh, not as much as we should, that's for sure!
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Earthquake prediction: Has the supposed widespread strange reaction of animals to an impending quake been either verified or proven false? Might be some value for short-term warning, if odd animal behavior is a truth.
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Unfortunately, it's just a myth.
