Inflation of Mauna Loa says only a matter of time

[Durian Fiend]

Attending a long winded monologue about the hazards of the place you've chosen to live is one thing, while receiving a mandatory evacuation notice due to an impending eruption is another. If such a scenario unfolded, they'd listen. Except maybe old folks like that Harry Truman at St. Helens and a few wackos, I guess, but being blown up in a pyroclastic explosion would be way preferable to being cooked by a lava flow.

[alaskyn66]

Id more worried about the side of the mountain sliding off into the ocean, like they predict will happen eventually.

Okay Google... Who are these people and why ain't they working?

[MarkP]

Years ago I read a news report about HOVE and Mauna Loa and one old timer aged 70 basically said "It only has to hold off another 10 years" as far as he was concerned. So yeah, there are folks who don't want to hear about it.

[geochem]

quote:

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Originally posted by Durian Fiend

Attending a long winded monologue about the hazards of the place you've chosen to live is one thing, while receiving a mandatory evacuation notice due to an impending eruption is another. If such a scenario unfolded, they'd listen.

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There may be no time for either - a "surprise" eruption (as occurred in 1984) could easily have lava flows in the ocean (and through a few back doors) in a couple of hours time.... If it happens at night, HVO won't even know where the flows are traveling since they can't fly at night...

As many in Puna know, all it takes is one flow covering one road, and economic viability changes drastically. How many S. Kona resort workers are going to be able to make a 4 hr (each way) commute to work on a daily basis? How many are going to be able to relocate north of a flow if one lasts for a significant period of time? How are those resorts going to be able to operate with a quarter or half their workforce not able to get to work? But our man Harry is Mr. Civil Defense, I'm sure he has it all figured out....

[glinda]

But our man Harry is Mr. Civil Defense, I'm sure he has it all figured out....

Wait a minute. I thought they figured that stuff out before they gave the developer the permits to create HOVE in the first place. They did, didn't they?

If the next eruption has a chronology anything like the 1950 eruption there are so many people that will be impacted that probably have no idea what could happen to them. There used to be those little signs marking the four different flows that cut across the highway in South Kona that gave us a sense of it all. Now even those are gone. Newer members of the community probably haven't a clue. And, I bet realtors don't say a thing.

I remember one land owner in Kalapana Gardens saying to me, as lava was winding its way through her yard, that she had no idea Kalapana was even on a volcano. And as geochem points out theres a good likelihood all of this could happen without HVO/CD even having the time to arrive on scene. Even if the seismicity becomes elevated before the onset of eruptive activity it isn't likely they would be able to pinpoint where the flows would impact and evacuate everyone in time. And keep in mine it isn't HVO's job to mitigate volcanic hazards. They just research them. This would all fall on the county and state.

[bluesboy]

i think it's HVO's responsibility to research and monitor the volcano, and report to hawaii county and civil defense in a timely manner.

[glinda]

Yes, agreed. But the more locally important task of actual public safety is solely the kuleana of the county and state who, I believe, are wholly unprepared for the task. Unlike the states along the mainland's West coast that have departments of their own ready to take responsible for those functions our local government doesn't.

[MarkP]

Here's the weekly update from Thursday:

"Activity Summary: Mauna Loa Volcano is not erupting. Rates of deformation and seismicity remain above long-term background levels.

Observations: Small-magnitude earthquakes continue to occur beneath the volcano, primarily beneath the summit caldera and upper Southwest Rift Zone at depths less than 5 km (3 miles). Additional deeper seismicity at depths less than 13 km (8 miles) was scattered beneath the flanks of the volcano.

Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements continue to show slow deformation related to inflation of a magma reservoir beneath the summit and upper Southwest Rift Zone. Rates of inflation in the past few months have decreased compared to rates of the past year. Similar decreases have occurred in the past during the ongoing period of unrest; it is uncertain if these lower rates will persist or pick up again in the near future.

No significant changes in volcanic gas emissions or fumarole were measured."

So that suggests the eruption will come in the SW rift zone. However it's a volcano, the largest one on earth. It'll do what it wants.

[geochem]

"But the more locally important task of actual public safety is solely the kuleana of the county and state..." The County, actually - they are the first responders and the ones supposedly doing all the planning for the eruption. Just ask Harry - he'll tell you that it's entirely the county call...

[MarkD]

I have no science expertise on this, but know that statistically the length of overdue time is a big worry. Not to hijack but it's same thing with tsunamis.

We are way overdue for Hilo to get smacked by big waves. Last notable waves: 1946, 1960, 1975. Odds are both the next tsunami and Mauna Loa flow will be large. Any day now for either.