Posts: 7,734
Threads: 686
Joined: Jun 2011
"Lane is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday and
could become a major hurricane on Saturday."
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI...1450.shtml?
Spag models show it repeating Hector's course, but it's a long way out and something to keep an eye on.
Posts: 10,252
Threads: 345
Joined: Apr 2009
First, my apologies for thinking this storm would be called Ileana. I forgot that there were other named storms that got nowhere near us, so it's Lane.
In any case, it looks to be going south of us, fortunately, but it will likely mean some soggy weather next Tuesday and Wednesday, just to add to what we have now which isn't pleasant. In any case, do keep an eye on it just in case something unpredictable happens.
I'm curious to see if civil defense and Kim repeat the same nonsense they did with Hector.
Posts: 7,734
Threads: 686
Joined: Jun 2011
A couple spag model stragglers show it passing south of the BI and then hooking up North towards Oahu. That would be interesting.
Posts: 5,640
Threads: 101
Joined: Dec 2008
Where do you see the spag models?
Always dicey when a hurricane passes this close:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...shtml?cone
Posts: 11,033
Threads: 751
Joined: Sep 2012
Where do you see the spag models?
Only one strand of spaghetti approaches Big Island for Hurricane Lane, and even that one just brushes South Point:
https://www.cyclocane.com/lane-spaghetti-models/
Whoops! Update:
One model brushes South Point
One shows landfall around Halape in Volcanoes National Park, tracking across the island toward Kona
All the rest are south of the island
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
Posts: 2,151
Threads: 73
Joined: Mar 2007
Those models can be all over the place, and some are well known to be far more accurate than others. Including them all may be considered comprehensive or alarmist, depending on one's point of view. Well regarded hurricane expert Dr. Jeff Masters' favorite is the European Model, a group which refuses to allow their projected tracks to be published. Masters' second favorite is the GFS along with some others which he publishes here:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane
Edited to add Masters' specific model tracks for Lane:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...?map=model
Posts: 1,674
Threads: 81
Joined: Aug 2014
I find it interesting that it is taking a similar path as Hector, but with the high pressure system to the north that will influence its direction.
Posts: 10,252
Threads: 345
Joined: Apr 2009
EW - the high pressure system farther north is what generally guides hurricanes in the Pacific. I think what's more interesting is the northward trend of some of the models as Lane gets closer.
Many years ago I attended a meeting with the Mauna Kea Weather Center people and the head of MKWC showed us how he thought Hurricane Iniki`s track was influenced by the Big Island. Basically, if you have strong trades blowing from the east or north-east, a vortex is created to the west or south-west of the island (you can see this in modern wind-models). A hurricane caught up in this vortex can easily be re-directed to the north. You need a strong high-pressure system to the north to create these circumstances.
Obviously, it requires certain conditions, but when I see some of the spaghetti models for Lane, I'm wondering if some are including this effect. I believe the hurricane would have to pass either very close to South Point to make this happen or be heading NW after it passed that point to make it happen. It would turn out well for us on the Big Island, but would definitely put Ohau and Kauai at risk.
Posts: 1,674
Threads: 81
Joined: Aug 2014
Looking like it's going to at least give us a big bump in surf.
I got the surf-warrior friends who are getting ready.
Hopefully nothing more.
Posts: 2,151
Threads: 73
Joined: Mar 2007
Hmmmm . . . TomK was right. Lane is expected to turn northwestward as it passes south of the Big Island. The portion of Hawaii from West Maui to Kauai is now in the "cone of uncertainty." It should drop to a tropical storm by the time it approaches any of the islands, but just yesterday they expected it to miss Hawaii entirely. Latest map:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?product=5day_cone_with_line&stormid=EP142018
