2018 Hurricane Season

[SBH]

This could have a bigger impact on Hawaii now since there was less shear than the models predicted and Hurricane Lane is now expected to make a northward turn.

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/0...of-hawaii/

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/category/19...ane-center

[PaulW]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?product=5day_cone_with_line&stormid=EP142018

We're within the cone again (Big Island)

[Chunkster]

Well, only a tiny sliver of Kona side is in the cone for now. Stay tuned, though, as the strength projections show it holding on to hurricane status longer than some earlier reports. This one could still get interesting.

[glinda]

Has anyone else played the modeling forward on this website...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...17.47,2345

Which has Lane slamming into Molokai..

Whatever model they use is obviously an outlier of the one noaa is betting on.

[TomK]

"Whatever model they use is obviously an outlier of the one noaa is betting on.".

"They" don't use a particular model although some seem to be more reliable than others. However, the various models do give an indication of the uncertainties involved in the forecasts hence the cone. Unfortunately, in this case, the various models are having real difficulties with projections beyond 48 hours due to competing atmospheric conditions in the north Pacific.

[TomK]

All,

I don't want to spread panic, but please remember the cone shows where the center of the storm may go, not where the effects might be felt. The latest forecast at 11pm on Monday suggests the center of Lane may go farther to the east, i.e., over quite a bit of the Big Island. The next forecast may differ (should be out at 5 am Tues).

Don't panic, it's a forecast, it may not be true, but this is a storm everyone should watch and prepare for. Expect high winds, a lot of rain, and power outages. Even if those don't happen, it won't hurt to prepare, but think we're in for some nasty weather no matter what.

[ElysianWort]

Hold on to your hats folk, this one is going to be a bit different from Hector.

I'm really hoping for the Mountains to show their impact on the storm soon and slow it down.

[Durian Fiend]

Latest news I could find. Better watch this one closely. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/new...st-impacts

[Carey]

Based on this mornings wind effect map products, most likely Lane has a good chance of creating some storm effects throughout our state... This is already impacting some shipping plans for later this week. Your storm prep will vary based on your comfort level with storm impacts...
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?product=most_likely_toa_34&stormid=EP142018

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Lane has a good chance of creating some storm effects throughout our state

As Carey noted, best to make some preparations if you live on Big Island. Should the storm follow its predicted path, even if it stays within the cone, Lane's outer bands extend a great distance from the center, far enough to reach Puna, with higher than normal winds and rain.

“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” - President Donald J. Trump, 7/25/18