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Hurricane Lane now at 160 mph sustained winds.
Only the 6th recorded Cat 5 hurricane in this part of the Pacific.
It’s the closest a Cat 5 storm has ever approached Hawaii.
“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” - President Donald J. Trump, 7/25/18
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Latest NWS forecast for the state (20:50 HST Tue 21st. It's not pleasant reading. I left out some of the redundent bits.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/AFD.php
" Tranquil weather conditions across the islands today will become more unsettled and threatening over the next several days as Lane a category 5 Hurricane roughly 370 miles south-southeast of Kona moves northwestward into the Hawaiian Islands. Lane is one of the strongest storms to ever move into the Hawaiian Islands and the current forecast track will bring local impacts of damaging winds and life threatening flooding rain across the state from Wednesday through Saturday. Do not wait until the storm reaches your island, the time to prepare for hurricane impacts is now.
As Hurricane Lane moves further northward, deep unstable tropical moisture will spread across the region. Precipitable Water (PW) values will range from 2.0 to 2.5 inches, producing hot and humid weather conditions and widespread convective heavy rain shower bands. This extremely deep moisture will reach the Big Island by Wed morning, Maui county by Wed night, Oahu by Thu, and Kauai by later Thu or Thu night. Once this extreme moisture arrives the heavy rainfall will start to develop quickly with the orographic effects from mountain ranges alone causing flooding threats across the islands with additional forcing from an upper level trough just to the northwest of the islands.
Strong winds will develop, based on the latest CPHC forecast, starting over the Big Island as soon as Wednesday afternoon with hurricane force winds developing by Wednesday night. The highest wind threat for the Big Island will start along the western side as strong and gusty down slope winds interact with mountainous terrain. On Maui county, damaging tropical storm force winds could begin as early as late Wednesday night, with dangerous hurricane force winds possible starting on Thursday. Oahu could see damaging winds by Thursday morning, and Kauai by Thursday night. Hurricane Watches could be needed for other areas as Lane draws closer.
It's not possible to know which islands will see the worst storm effects right now. The CPHC forecasts continue to show that all islands are at risk from direct effects from the core of Hurricane Lane. Everyone should take this hurricane very seriously and should prepare accordingly. It's also important to expect that there will need to be future adjustments to the track and intensity forecast, particularly with the challenging recurvature forecast that Lane is presenting. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
The combination of a deep moist unstable layer and strong low level wind shear along and to the east of the track of Lane will make tornadoes and large waterspouts a distinct possibility in the rainbands across the right semicircle of the hurricane. These continue to be included in the TCV and HLS products as an elevated threat from Oahu to the Big Island. Will be able to better refine the threat as Lane approaches."
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The spaghetti map is a hoot an a half, changing every time I look, with loop de loops, and hoop de hoops. Dunno, but this one may be for the record books, even if nothing comes of it.
Wonder how the Monday (read Thursday thru Saturday) quarterbacking will go?
Cheers,
Kirt
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"This extremely deep moisture will reach the Big Island by Wed morning"
Ah, that's why everything is closing.
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quote:
Originally posted by PaulW
"This extremely deep moisture will reach the Big Island by Wed morning"
Ah, that's why everything is closing.
Keep on keeping on, PW! I suggest you stay open. If it is another calmest day of the month hurricane, you will look good.
Stay safe,
Kirt
(Oops, sorry Paul. I saw a guestion mark that wasn’t there, and thought you were saying the Wednesday closures were an overreaction. I should delete this but don’t have the integrity.  )
Edit for oops.
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with loop de loops, and hoop de hoop
I’ve been watching those rapid changes, adjustments and shifts in the noodles too Kirt.
This is the most unpredictable storm I’ve seen in years. Usually I feel pretty confident of the storm track when we’re 48 hours out - - but not with Lane. I don’t think I’ll be able to take my eyes off the reports as they affect Big Island until late, late Thursday.
“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” - President Donald J. Trump, 7/25/18
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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quote:
Originally posted by HereOnThePrimalEdge
I’ve been watching those rapid changes, adjustments and shifts in the noodles too Kirt.
[[/i]
You know, HotPE, in these times of trouble, mother merry speaks to me. And what has got me thru it all is pastafarianism, FSM. I’m thinking a colander on the hat spot might be the way with this one...
Regardless of how it goes, I’m covered.
Cheers,
Kirt
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windy.com has it brushing Oahu and pretty much slamming Kauai from the south.
Such strange goings on.
Cheers,
Kirt
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"And what has got me thru it all is pastafarianism, FSM. I’m thinking a colander on the hat spot might be the way with this one"
Maybe the pirate ships will be able to help with evacuations or bringing in supplies.
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I’m thinking a colander on the hat spot
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I only have a plastic one. Will that work?
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