2018 Hurricane Season

[Carey]

quote:

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Originally posted by glinda

Because we have Magic Mountains

Our mountains are magic

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[glinda]

Magic speed bumps

[TomK]

Now that Norman is no longer a threat, the next storm in line is Olivia. Currently, there is high confidence in the tracking models which brings Olivia close to the islands next Tue/Wed but there is much less confidence in the intensity models due to come competing influences. At the moment, the models have Olivia falling apart near or over the islands, but confidence is low this far out.

[PaulW]

Hurricanes don't cause waves? I learn something new every day. I should take up photography too.

[PaulW]

That predicted path of Olivia looks scary but still a long way away, anything could happen.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...4#contents

[glinda]

quote:

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Originally posted by PaulW

Hurricanes don't cause waves? I learn something new every day..

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The real question is will the anti-matter ray gun be done in time?

[TomK]

quote:

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Originally posted by HereOnThePrimalEdge

He says well formed eye, NOAA says the eye is falling apart.
He says it will steer it north, NOAA says northwest.
Minor details but still..

Look at the spaghetti models. Each is unique, some quite different from the others. Watch the shape and direction of a hurricane's path and cone as it approaches the islands. It changes every day, sometimes several times a day.

When TomK posts a comment or answer to someones's question, the weather may have already changed by the time you read it, the storm already in a new, slightly different pattern.

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Exactly, which is why I wrote "Norman has a well-defined eye as I write this and you can already see it's turning quite sharply to the north.". For those with comprehension issues, it means that at the time I wrote my post, Norman still had a well-defined eye which allowed one to see it had turned toward the north after it had moved towards the west for so long. The reason I wrote "as I write this" is obvious. The storm would change over time as it weakened and the eye would become less well-defined.

These are the GOES images I based this on:

https://goo.gl/t8WgnL
https://goo.gl/xAxnjr
https://goo.gl/LGm82v

But now the topic is anti-matter ray guns I guess.

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by PaulW

That predicted path of Olivia looks scary but still a long way away, anything could happen.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...4#contents

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Most of the latest model runs now have Olivia making landfall somewhere in Hawaii as a tropical storm. This is subject to change with notice, of course.

[ElysianWort]

So here is that beautiful weather I had mentioned.

For Olivia I noticed, that all the spaghetti models go right over our islands? What about the possibility of it going north or south of the islands.

Will our mountain range save us yet again? Here's to hoping so.

[Carey]

from the Olivia forecast discussion, Fri 5amHST
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI...1433.shtml?

800 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

...."Olivia is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, and it will remain over
these waters during the next several days. These marginal SSTs
combined with drier air should cause a slow weakening trend through
the forecast period. However, as mentioned in previous discussions,
research has proven that annular hurricanes like Olivia weaken
slower than normal in these types of conditions. Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of weakening than the
IVCN and HCCA models."

MMMM....not one single mention of the magic mountains saving us..... what is wrong with NOAA???? all they mention here is marginal SSTs combined with drier air....
Leave it to some not to notice the tenacity of annular hurricane formations, and others to credit magic mountains on any weakening...