2018 Hurricane Season

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time.

Carey makes a good point, one that we should not ignore. Olivia is 36 hours away, and a lot could happen in that amount of time.

For example, take another predictive model from the Green Bay-Chicago football game yesterday. With 2 1/2 minutes left in the game, Chicago had approximately a 95% chance of winning. (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmtFeTdXgAAYxHq.jpg) The Packers had to run the length of the field with NO TIMEOUTS. But... the Packers have Aaron Rodgers as quarterback and he threw a touchdown in less than 30 seconds. Did the predictive model account for the Aaron Rodgers X factor*? And if it did, why was a nearly certain outcome negated, by something, an intangible, some unknown influence unaccounted for by the algorithm.

Hurricane projections and storm models are like that too. So keep watching the forecasts, top up your emergency supply of butter pecan and mint chocolate chip ice cream, and hang on tight for another day and a half. Stay tuned.

* Rodgers was carted off the field in the 2nd quarter, returned after half time with his team down 20-0. He played on a gimpy leg. But he was also Aaron Rodgers. How does an algorithm account for that? Weather models are equally complex.

[PaulW]

I'm just thankful we're not facing this:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

It's good being a small target.

[Carey]

Many have noted that most prediction models for Olivia is that the storm will weaken as it moves west... the TPAC WV loop is an excellent way of seeing, with your own eyes, the wind shear that this storm is up against (that lobe of air depending from the NW, with the dry band of air, in brown tones, between Olivia & the wind shear. Add the SST & you will get some of the information that are used in modeling. It should bo be noted here, wind shear tend to break apart storms & every deg over 25 gives the storm strength, so as this storm is traveling west it was gone from 25/26 waters & is heading into 27/28 degree waters...
The combination of those 2 factors, storm killing wind shear & storm rejuvenating warmer waters makes for fun forecasting...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/h5-loop-wv.html

[macuu222]

Olivia is now a tropical storm and it looks like the "cone of uncertainty" center track will cross right over Kihei, Maui on Wednesday.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/09/10...s-islands/

[EightFingers]

quote:

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Originally posted by macuu222

Olivia is now a tropical storm and it looks like the "cone of uncertainty" center track will cross right over Kihei, Maui on Wednesday.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/09/10...s-islands/

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Nope, still a hurricane.

[alaskyn66]

Either or.. unless something interesting happens in the next 12 hrs. It won't affect us in any way.

https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/28068/web

[Durian Fiend]

Fresh from the latest advisory at 5PM, it is down to a storm. Still powerful though at 70 MPH. Expected path has been lifted a bit north, so perhaps it won't affect us much.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Olivia&stormid=ep172018

[ironyak]

Carey - To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors.

I appreciate this, but it still doesn't explain how the forecast track for the storm's center is decided for each update. Best single model for recent behavior, or some sort of average (and if so, how to choose what is averaged, and with what weighting)? Arcane minutiae likely given the scope of the error in forecasting, but still intriguing.

[ElysianWort]

Then please present the evidence that there is something to be said about it. I could tell you harvesting mangos in the morning helps fend of earthquakes

Well Olivia is following the longtime trend of Hurricanes going around our Big island (except Iselle). Mauna kea Mauna loa? I dunno?

[dan d]

Uh oh! They named the next trop storm after my son Paul.
He promises to be nice to puna.
Aloha

Dan D
HPP