2018 Hurricane Season

[Wao nahele wahine]

quote:

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Originally posted by riversnout

Back to fake hurricane news (change of pace from real hurricane news). Weather channel reporter can barley stand up in the fierce wind, yet 2 others calmly stroll across the background on their mobile phones.

https://imgur.com/a/KMwjLo9

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Yep...was just looking at this video on FB. I am currently working in Shelby NC...nothing happening here so far except for some wind and a little rain.

Wahine

[Guest]

Bawahah on that clip.

Paul yuo can read right? Facts is facts.

[PaulW]

I can read. Can yuo write? Can you provide links that work, preferably written by someone who knows something about the subject?

[Guest]

Link works perfect. I always sheck before posting. If it did not work for, are you saying u did not even read it but chose to comment anyway??

[TomK]

For those who want to do a little more reading on the current state of scientific research on climate change and hurricanes, you might try the following links. Although much of the current work concentrates on Atlantic storms for obvious reasons, the work also includes the potential effects elsewhere including the NE Pacific which is very relevant to Hawaii.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming...urricanes/
https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-...te-change/
https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/sc...hange.html

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

yuo can read right? Facts is facts.

I don’t know it for a fact...
but it just seems true that James Taylor at the Heartland Institute, their “senior fellow for environmental policy,” is more likely an institutionalized inpatient who regulates the setting on their nonfunctional rec room thermostat, providing him with a sense of responsibility and feeling of self worth, so he may one day overcome his inability to contemplate a world in which planetary temperatures are out of control.

He blogs from time to time as a hobby.

“It's tremendously big and tremendously wet, tremendous amounts of water.” President Donald J. Trump describing an active hurricane on Tue, Sept 11, 2018

[riversnout]

quote:

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Originally posted by TomK

For those who want to do a little more reading on the current state of scientific research on climate change and hurricanes, you might try the following links. Although much of the current work concentrates on Atlantic storms for obvious reasons, the work also includes the potential effects elsewhere including the NE Pacific which is very relevant to Hawaii.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming...urricanes/

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Just looked at the first link so far. I saw "What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?". Well, throw that out for starters. Then "Sea level rise–which very likely has a substantial human contribution to the global mean observed rise according to IPCC AR5". Here is the official sea level rise-ometer for Honolulu which goes back to 1905. The current rate of rise is 0.49 feet in 100 years which is 6 inches. I guess we can throw that out as well.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltren...id=1612340

[TomK]

riversnout - I'm trying to understand how your comment refers to projections for the late 21st century. Are you saying changes must stay linear?

[riversnout]

I'm looking at the data from 1905 - 2017. I see the last 10 years look like the last 30 years which look like the last 112 years. What I do not see is a hockeystick ramping up sea level. It would take a monumental shift to bring the observations near the IPCC predictions. It's possible, but why hasn't it started yet? If carbon is the primary variable, why is there no uptick yet?

[TomK]

Thanks for explaining, riversnout. I don't know the answers although I guess you could argue there has been quite a sudden increase in the sea-level in recent years but I'd certainly not claim it's beyond noise levels at this point. My post was simply to show the state of current scientific research in the area of climate change and hurricanes.

One thing is pretty clear though - warmer sea temperatures will hardly help reduce the number of powerful hurricanes since that is where they derive their energy. Sea-level changes are a different thing which mainly affects the impacts of hurricanes, not how powerful they become.