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OK Mr. smartypants Jared, is there a direct correlation between NASCAR restrictor plate rules and the rising interest rates? I have a theory...
Oh, and the Dodgers are from Brooklyn.
Aloha
Richwhiteboy
"Happiness is not the absence of problems, but the ability to deal with them."
- Vince Lombardi
“Sometimes the truth hurts. And sometimes it feels real good.”
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I belive that nascar should eliminate the restrictor plates, roll cages, brakes and any other safety devices on all cars, as they only slow the race down and restrict the spectacle nascar races should be.
Jared
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quote:
Aaron: I didnt say it wouldnt hurt? It will hurt like hell. If the weather man says a hurricane is coming on Labor Day, you shouldn't keep roasting weinners at the seashore. Do people get hurt in hurricanes and economic hard times? Well, yeah. Do we blame the weather man and the economist? If we do thats just silly. I am sorry if I am your "Cassandra".
The blame goes all around, so to speak,
speculators, government, doomsayers like you.
For me personally, it is VERY ANNOYING that
Hawaii is back in this spot once again-right
near cliff, almost ready to fall over. It just goes to show we need to diversify our economy away from being so reliant on construction,tourism, military and real estate.
There is untold damage that will happen to this island also. The government will re-zone
more land for the next land rush and will claim they don't have any money to build infrastructure. Call me a pessimist, but
I already can see the writing on the wall .
Edited by - Aaron S on 09/22/2006 18:26:03
Edited by - Aaron S on 09/22/2006 18:26:46
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I'm for eliminating NASCAR safetey rules and regulations also, but how does this relate to rising interest rates? I'd share my theorey, but it has a flaw, and I don't want anyone to think I'm a crackpot.
Aloha
Richwhiteboy
"Why can't you share your bed? The most loving thing to do is to share your bed with someone. It's very charming. It's very sweet. It's what the whole world should do."
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“Sometimes the truth hurts. And sometimes it feels real good.”
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I know that nobody wants to listen to the bad news. Denial is not just a river in Egypt. I was the same way during the tech stock bubble. Older investors who had been around this block before warned that the bubble would burst: they always do.
I think that Jared's is the worst case scenario--I hope that's the worst case anyhow. Radioguy may be right--I sure hope he is and that lows only go to early 2005 prices. Do any of you realize that tech stocks have not recovered from the bust? Combined, trillions of dollars were lost. Of course, real estate is different from a stock.
I have seen recessions in HI--they are not pretty: tourism falls, locals lose jobs. Quid pro quo. Hawaii's economic viability is inextricably tied to California's. As goes California, so goes Hawaii. I think this is especially true of Southern California.
Prices are already falling and house inventory rising. Brand new houses that couldn't be sold are on the rental market. This is happening in many places in California right now. Where will it all end? Or what exactly will happen--how bad will it get? That's what is unknown. People who can afford to weather the storm will probably be o.k. -- eventually.
As for San Fran: a very special market where housing is limited geographically. Prices there were inflated by the latest, unprecedented run-up. We were lucky and that bullet was dodged by anyone who could afford to hold on to their property until the recession was over. I don't believe anything is certain. But hopefully in 5 or 10 years prices will make all of us proud of ourselves for having the foresight to buy on the Big Island.
I enjoy reading other people's forecasts. I might learn something.
April
april
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To me, there isn't much value in what the extreme doomsayers have to say. It seems their views are based upon the fear of the unknown.
I can't predict how the housing market will go. But living here in Kona my entire life, you notice trends. To me the writing is on the wall.
It deeply hurts me to see Hawaii sucked into
another housing crash once again. Our environment, our people suffer because of the
lack of foresight by our elected officials.
Everytime there is crash here in Hawaii, people get laid off, government refuses to
spend money on infrastructure, and rezones
more land for the next land rush.
Thus the environment and the people who live
here suffer due to this. To me that simply
is not right.
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Yes I admit I am a pessimist on housing here.
But its from living living here in Kona my
entire life, I've observed the economic trends that have happened over the last 30 years.
Basing Hawaii's economy on unstable things like real estate does not permit adequate planning.It is why we have poor infrastructure on this island.
During any downturns, the government rezones a ton of land for the next big rush and says "oh we cannot build infrastructure, because
we don't have the money" Hence the catch up
the government is trying to do now.
Frankly it all adds up to a lot of frustration for yours truly.
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Whether or not I agree with Aaron's prediction about the real estate market on the BI crashing (again,) I think he is on to something as far as the infrastructure and politicians go. The local decision making processes seem to involve lengthy talking story among all the interested parties and even lengthier processes to arrive at some sort of consensus as far as what to do. The purpose of consensus-based decision making is to make as many groups as possible happy with the result, but it seldom seems to turn out that way around here.
Once we finally decide we need to build or do something, we have any number of engineering and environmental studies (necessary, I should add) before anything can be actually approved. Is it any wonder that by the time all this is done, the economic cycle may have turned, resulting in no money to actually get it done?
I am a firm believer in participatory democracy, but I also think it is the duty of politicians to sometimes push through projects and programs that may not be universally popular. I don't see more than a very few Hawaii politicians willing to do that. This may seem charming and traditional, but the results can be bad.
Some people seem to think that if we stick our heads in the sand and do nothing about infrastructure needs on this island, people will just stop moving here and everything will be OK. Look around, folks, we're already here, and more are coming whether we choose to deal with it or not.
OK, rant over.
Aloha,
Jerry
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I'd like to clarify one point here though.
I'm not saying there is going to be housing
crash on the Big Island. I'm just stating
the negative effects on this island from
previous real estate crashes.
Which incidentally I agree with your rant.
That is another frustrating aspect of living
here incomptent and slow as molasses government.
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There's another variable. Laugh if you will, but the last two house guests we've had have told us the coqui frog would preclude this island from consideration for potential retirement destinations.
