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At this point (Tues. Morning) all tracks for Hurricane Erik are predicting a path south of our island, & that Flossie will strengthen to a Hurricane today with a path toward us.
One thing to be aware of is also at this point, the typical upper atmosphere sheer is not in our area. there is a circulating storm north of us that is blocking that atmospheric condition, so a storm in this area is not likely to be sheared, if this condition continues:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/h5-loop-wv.html
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As Carey pointed out Erick will most likely pass south of the Big Island.
As for Flossie:
* 3 models show it passing directly over the Big Island
* More models forecast the storm moving to the north of us
* At the same longitude Erick was a Cat 3, Flossie will weaken from a Cat 2 down to Cat 1, still hundreds of miles away from us. If the weakening trend continues (ECMWF forecast projections near the islands not released yet) it may be a wet, windy tropical storm or depression when it arrives in our vicinity.
Stay tuned
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Path looks uncomfortably close. (Flossie) Latest projection I've seen suggests it could go south of us. Hope so-too early to tell.
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Path looks uncomfortably close.
Yes, some models for Flossie have shifted over the course of the afternoon.
ECMWF has moved the track south, their last forecast position still not in range of the islands, but a good chance we’ll be in the cone. Should know tomorrow.
Other models continue to show a northerly track, but there’s really no consensus. The tracks are all over the place, some passing over our island. Keep watching this storm.
For ECMWF forecast:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
Center map over Hawaii
Scroll down layers on the right side of page. Check Hurricanes/Typhoons. Check Model Data, and the ECMWF forecast graphic should appear on the map.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Flash Flood Watch
Issued: 3:34 AM Jul. 31, 2019 – National Weather Service
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for the Big Island.
* From Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.
* Moisture from Tropical Cyclone Erick is expected to move over
the Big Island starting Thursday afternoon. Intense rainfall and
Flash Flooding are possible as the cyclone passes south of the
state, especially along the east and southeast facing slopes.
* Flood prone areas, such as low spots in roads, may become
impassable due to fast flowing water or deep ponding. The main
flooding impacts are expected to occur from Hilo to Naalehu,
with lower flooding potential elsewhere on the Big Island.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for flash
flooding. Flash flooding is LIFE THREATENING. Do not cross fast
flowing water in your vehicle or on foot.
Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action if a Flash
Flood Warning is issued. If you experience heavy rain or rising
water, head to higher ground immediately.
&&
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looks like us southern Ka'u folks are going to get NAILED BY THE GNARLY RAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIIICCKKK *summer movie blockbuster dramatic deep voice* Fortunately i live on a hill at 1400 feet so no flash flooding worries for me.
Aloha
Aloha
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Fortunately i live on a hill at 1400 feet so no flash flooding worries for me.
Don't forget, you have 12,000 feet of elevation above you, with rain flowing off Mauna Loa. It goes downhill and has to come through somewhere.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Flossie models took a turn north this afternoon. ECMWF angled more northwest showing a track about 100 north of Hilo. Wind speeds should drop to 45-50 mph by then, and with the storm offshore wind speed may be lower than that for Puna.
Still too early for a definite track, but it’s a little bit of good news today.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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King tides will coincide with Eriks storm swell.
Hilo King Tide for 8-1-19 is 4:05 pm HST
Expected E/SE swell is 15-20 ft
Please be very careful around our coast tomorrow afternoon
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Tonight's 11 pm forecast for Flossie has some significant changes - whether these play out or not is another matter. The current forecast (11 pm July 31st) has Flossie remaining as a powerful tropical storm but now heading slightly north of the island chain whereas the 2 pm update had it making direct landfall somewhere near Hilo. Assuming this continues to be the case, we'll see some bad weather but nothing drastic. Keeping fingers crossed.
