Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[ironyak]

TomK - I'll share the answer when I feel like it.

The silly games people play to make themselves feel smart... do you like apples?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMD2vUErcYU

[PaulW]

I think it’s called a superiority complex.
Out of nowhere? Que?

Curious to hear more about the correct answer. Anyone else want to take a shot? I like counter intuitive results, good for winning bets.
Like the potato paradox or the birthday one.

[TomK]

Hang on, Paul, I thought we'd discussed behind the scenes that it was still my shift? I guess Obie leaving has confused things. Let's meet at the usual secret location to discuss this.

As you correctly stated, the answer depends upon the number of people in the population that actually carry the virus and that's how the answer should be expressed.

[ironyak]

TomK - As you correctly stated, the answer depends upon the number of people in the population that actually carry the virus and that's how the answer should be expressed.

Which is exactly what you don't know as that is what the test is supposed to be measuring.

But sorry, don't want to steal your (or Marilyn vos Savant's) thunder, show us how you can pull yourself up by your bootstraps to reach an answer. I'm going to go flip some coins and some pancakes (thinking apple sounds good - you like apples?)

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

---

Originally posted by PaulW

0.95 * x + 0.05 * (100 - x)
where x is the actual percentage of the population that has the virus.

---

Should be a minus there instead of plus.

[randomq]

R0 = (1 * stay home and wash your hands) = 0. If everyone just ******* stayed home a few weeks this would be over.

[Guest]

If everyone just ******* stayed home a few weeks this would be over.

Sorry randomq, that's way to complicated.. and besides watching Tom and them twist themselves into pretzels is just too much fun.

But hey, I like apples, grated in my pancakes, mix in a little cottage cheese, topped with maple syrup... yummy!

[PaulW]

^ That awkward moment when a troll becomes self-aware

[ironyak]

PaulW - 0.95 * x + 0.05 * (100 - x)
where x is the actual percentage of the population that has the virus.

Durian Fiend - Should be a minus there instead of plus.

There's a lot more wrong with the equation than that symbol. 100 versus 0.95? Using percentages is tricky...

Think about the symmetry of the 5% true positives and 5% false positives and what that might mean when you ASSUME the disease prevalence (which you still don't know) is low. (sorry "teacher" Tom, no dark sarcasm in this classroom, we don't need no thought control...)

[Guest]

Using percentages is tricky...

Nobody ever said Paul was a mathematician. I mean, come on, just because he hasn't figured out decimal points yet doesn't mean he isn't trying.