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Decline in Real Estate
I prefer to keep with facts and the numbers. Please see the referenced article at:
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/11/17...owing-down

Not sure if anyone else noticed but last week in "Hawaii Information Service" the number of available homes for sale within the last 14 day period which has averaged at the 35-40 number for the past few months, Last week it jumped to 98!!!!!!!! Most are small kit homes selling for under 200K.

Remember, real estate investments are only investments if you don't call them home. Otherwise it becomes an emotinal investment/decision and not a business decision.

I am just as emotionally and financially invested in the East side as are most of you. We just have to be realistic regarding the future negative impacts and legacy of debt the current administration is leaving us.





Will Peratino
Will Peratino
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Depending on how the search is done (and specifically whether or not condos are excluded), makes a big difference. In the last two weeks, 2 new condo projects in Hilo started to be listed in the MLS.

John Dirgo, RA, ABR, e-PRO
Island Trust Properties, LLC
808-987-9243 cell
http://www.hawaiirealproperty.com
John Dirgo, R, PB, EcoBroker, ABR, e-PRO
Aloha Coast Realty, LLC
808-987-9243 cell
http://www.alohacoastrealty.com
http://www.bigislandvacationrentals.com
http://www.maui-vacation-rentals.com
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Sorry John:

Wish that were true but I in the search criteria used exclude condos etc. These are all small single family spec homes in several Puna sub-divisions. Clearly being a realtor you can stratify the database in ways that us mere mortals cannot, so perhaps you would like to produce some statistics that are not manipulated and publish them so we all can benefit.

Thanks

Will Peratino
Will Peratino
Reply
As of right now, in all of Puna, there are 88 residential listings that have been on the market less than 2 weeks. It is higher than normal, but there are a couple of things that are affecting it.

One company that had offices in Hilo and Pahoa has split into two (although that did happen a month or so ago) and so at least a few of these are sellers that are relisting with the new company.

Some also appear to be houses that were on the market in the past, taken off the market for a while and now relisted (I recognized several of those).

A few are also from agents that changed companies and relisted the properties with their new company.

I'm not saying that explains all of the increase in recently listed properties. But the total number of houses on the market has not changed much.

John Dirgo, RA, ABR, e-PRO
Island Trust Properties, LLC
808-987-9243 cell
http://www.hawaiirealproperty.com
John Dirgo, R, PB, EcoBroker, ABR, e-PRO
Aloha Coast Realty, LLC
808-987-9243 cell
http://www.alohacoastrealty.com
http://www.bigislandvacationrentals.com
http://www.maui-vacation-rentals.com
Reply
I am inexpert in this, but I can tell you what I have observed in approximately 10 months of watching the market, most intensively in the past 5 months or so. Many houses that were of interest to me have sold. Some, quite quickly. Really nice houses that are not overpriced sell pretty quickly, unless they are in a farflung location. Relative to the rest of the nation, I think East Hawaii is moving at a slower, but still steady clip. Want a place in Hamakua? JUMP. I have no stats to back this up --just sittin' here watchin' and waitin' like an ole spidah.

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http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p...60305/1071

I thought everybody wanted to move here especially the "boomers": Peter Aiello, president of Aiello Development, said the incentives were a response to 10 or 11 cancellations mostly from Mainland buyers. "That hit us hard," he said. "A lot of Mainland (investors) have dropped out."

I sure we had a paradigm shift because history doesn't repeat: "The last time Hawai'i developers offered widespread incentives for home purchases was during the mid- to late-1990s market decline."

Maybe this guy knows something, notice his use of "had": "We're not lowering our prices," he said. "We've had really brisk sales."

Incentives are indictative of lower prices, who pays for these? The Incentive Fairy? Nope, its the builder. Check what recently happened on the mainland with builders offering incentives and now offering price reductions. Incentives just keep the market artificially high.

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As a baby boomer I would like to mention, that I am unique among my friends when it comes to relocating to Hawaii as I have a very small family base. Very few of my friends, boomers with $'s in their pockets would consider relocating to Hawaii full time.

They like to visit, however with the 2 hour up front airport delays these days, added to the long flights, age is starting to catch up with them so shorter trips are on their horizons like Mexico, Cabo, Costa Rica, or the Bahamas and Bermuda are destinations of choice now.

As for relocating to Hawaii, the majority of my friends have such large extended families, children and new grandchildren being born, they do not want to leave the mainland, and distance themselves from these benefits of family life.

It is interesting to me that the number of observations of this thread have exceeded 10,000. More than any other thread. To bad this type of interest isn't there for other topics that would perhaps be beneficial to Hawaii. Must be mainland speculators, media trolls and marketeers, combing the web for instant insight! LOL Aloha, Mella

mella l
mella l
Art and Science
bytheSEA
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Wall Street Journal info on housing market. Projections for 2007...

http://www.rismedia.com/index.php/articl...16802/1/1/


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http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/anal...11-23.html



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Mella I agree. Instant insight. Get rich quick or just talk about it.
We came here pretty much to retire. Our moving here had very little to do with what was going on in the real estate here at that given moment.We had plans set in motion 5 years before we moved. We did know the prices were down here. That only made us sell all in Calif. and rebuy Here and in Oahu a little sooner.
I feel from talking with people here, that the buyer coming here is different. Some of the people that have moved here did so giving up alot to be here. But they wanted be here.
There will always be people that will buy here
regardless of the real estate ups and downs.
Speculators spend alot of time speculating. The people that act from their own knowledge and determination are the ones that acheive there dreams. Choose your knowledge wisely.
Don't let the BS cloud your vision.

Aloha






Edited by - wyatt on 11/27/2006 06:16:40
"Yearn to understand first and to be understood second."
-- Beca Lewis Allen
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