Vaccinated People Spread The Delta Variant, CDC Says

[AaronM]

"Interesting" questions.

[kalianna]

Cluster reports are posted bi-weekly at: https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdis...in-hawaii/
I haven't seen a single church cluster in there since the current spike began. It's my understanding that churches are following social distance guidelines. Not true?

And has there actually been a cluster at a drum circle or are you just being glib?

[TomK]

I suspect that's the only bit you read or is the only bit you saw on a conspiracy website.

No Tom, I just googled it.

Then why post misinformation? You admit you googled the report so why leave out the most relevant information? You either only read the first couple of lines of the report or deliberately chose to ignore the rest of it.

[kander]

Then why post misinformation? You admit you googled the report so why leave out the most relevant information? You either only read the first couple of lines of the report or deliberately chose to ignore the rest of it.

Because the rest of the report was not germaine to the previous post statement. that stated that un-vaccinated had 1000 times higher viral loads than the unvaccinated. Which is obviously untrue.

But if thats what you want to talk about, then yes I agree vaccinated people are about 60% less likely to catch the delta variant.  the 40% or so that do, will still have equal viral loading as the unvaccinated.

[randomq]

Latest study out of the UK shows ~16% lower viral load among vaccinated breakthrough cases, and still Identifies reduced transmissibility in vaccinated vs non-vaccinated individuals. No percentage on the reduced transmissibility, though lower infection rate, lower viral load, and lower duration support it.

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/90800

[Justin]

There's a lot of false equivalency being spread on here.  Just because vaccinated people can get, and can spread, the virus doesn't mean that's the "same" as unvaccinated people getting and spreading.  If two people went into a restaurant, and one group of people paid $2 for a beer, and other people paid $10, things aren't the "same" just because both group of people had to pay.  Along the same lines, sober people can cause car accidents that harm themselves and/or others, and so can drunk people, but drunk people do so at a rate that we as a society find unacceptable, and we place that "level" at a blood alcohol content of 0.08 in many states.

As this relates to the coronavirus, what truly matters at the end of the day is the "R0 value."  This is  the value signifying how many people, on average, a contagious person will pass the virus to.  Anything above 1.0, the number of sick people go up exponentially, anything below 1.0, the number of sick people go down exponentially.  For the Delta variant, for unvaccinated people not practicing any social distancing, not wearing any masks, or doing anything to stop the spread, the value is around 6.0.  Getting vaccinated, wearing masks, practicing social distancing, etc., all bring this number down.

Here are a couple quick examples, assuming 1000 sick people, and 6 "generations" of virus passing from that original 1000 people using different R0 values of just above and just below 1.0 (1.1 and 0.9 in this example), and using the R0 value of 6.0, assuming a free-for-all with no vaccinations and no social distancing of any sort.

1000 * (1.1)^6 = 1772
1000 * (0.9)^6 = 531
1000 * (6.0)^6 = 4,665,600

Assuming for sake of argument each "generation" is 10 days, in 6 generations (60 days), 1000 sick people will become 1772 people in two months with an R0 that is just *barely* higher than 1.0, and 1000 sick people will become 531 people in two months with an R0 that is just *barely* lower than 1.0.  And, in a free-for-all world, 1000 sick people cause over 4.5 million to get sick in less than two months.

Doing the same math, but with R0 values of 1.2 and 0.8 this time, gives 2986 infected people versus 262 people after two months.

Point being, even small things that move the needle ever so slightly have huge ramifications.  Every person that gets vaccinated, wears a mask in the grocery store, avoids going to a concert, etc., plays a part in getting the R0 value down.  And once it gets below 1.0, even if just barely below, the number of sick people will quickly descend to close to zero in short order.

Bringing this back to vaccinations, vaccinated people have an R0 value of less than 1.0.  Yes, they can get it, they can transmit it.  But, on average, anyone who gets vaccinated will infect less than 1 other person.  Because of this, if everyone were to get vaccinated, the virus would disappear.  This isn't subject to interpretation, facebook memes, personal anecdotes, or people's personal beliefs.  It's math.  Cold, uncaring, unflinching, math.

So please, everyone, please, for the sake of everyone's health and well-being, and so that we can return to a pre-2020 level of normalcy, please get vaccinated.

[My 2 cents]

"For the Delta variant, for unvaccinated people not practicing any social distancing, not wearing any masks, or doing anything to stop the spread, the value is around 6.0. Getting vaccinated, wearing masks, practicing social distancing, etc., all bring this number down."

Why the severely slanted playing field? Why not compare vaxxed vs. unvaxxed using the same level of other precautions?

[Justin]

No slant intended, it's just a fact. That is what the "control" number is. In reality, it is lower, but varies substantially from locality to locality depending on the percentage of vaccinated people, mask wearing, restrictions on gatherings, etc. Everywhere has a different R0 value at the moment. Hawaii's, unfortunately, is well above 1.0, which is why numbers have skyrocketed recently.

[My 2 cents]

"No slant intended"

I seriously doubt that. Unlevel playing fields are used to provide a desired outcome, ignoring reality. Your "cold, uncaring, unflinching, math" is comparing apples to oranges. The numbers are bogus, and they paint a picture that differs substantially from reality.

And I don't believe for a second that this was not intentional.

[kander]

So please, everyone, please, for the sake of everyone's health and well-being, and so that we can return to a pre-2020 level of normalcy, please get vaccinated.

There will never be a normal again of pre 2020.. The goal posts will continually shift just like they have been doing.