2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[kalianna]

My experience is that we bring everything in from the outside, then the hurricane swerves away from us at the last second and then we put everything back. I hope it follows that pattern this year. My biggest fear from El Nino is not the hurricanes, itʻs the drought.

[TomK]

I agree, that was certainly the biggest issue during the 97/98 El Nino event.

[Durian Fiend]

It seems like the main thing to worry about is storm surge, falling trees, and power losses. What do most people do for prep if there is a hurricane?

Depends upon the hurricane strength and expected path. There's not much that can be done besides securing things that could be blown away, if possible.  Maybe protect your home and vehicle windows from flying debris with coverings.  Prepare for potential power outages if on grid.   Most people just make a run on the grocery stores to buy up food, toilet paper, etc. 
Thankfully we're a small target in a very large ocean.

[Durian Fiend]

Meteorologist at this site is predicting the first E. Pacific hurricane will be forming next week. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1671...ENPWLAw1EA&s=19

[TomK]

Thanks for that! NWS is saying no chance of a storm forming but that's for the next 48 hours. It will be interesting to see if Ryan's prediction is correct.

[terracore]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
portion of next week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore
of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[TomK]

That second disturbance appears to be forming according to the latest from NOAA/NWS but neither appears to be a threat to Hawaii at this point.

[AinaAKai]

These are really far from Hawaii. I was wondering... What should people with homes on 200 foot cliffs do during a hurricane. No storm surge or flooding, but the wind makes me nervous.

[terracore]

These are really far from Hawaii. I was wondering... What should people with homes on 200 foot cliffs do during a hurricane. No storm surge or flooding, but the wind makes me nervous.

That really depends on how the home was constructed and the strength of the hurricane.   The common sense answer would be to bring things inside and board up the windows.  When evacuation isn't feasible, if flooding isn't a concern they recommend staying on the lowest floor close to the center of the home away from windows, doors, etc.  When we were in the inspection phase of our home purchase I specifically asked the engineer pointed questions about hurricanes and earthquakes, and he took the time to explain to me the seismic and wind resistance the home had.  The building code required hurricane strapping on the roof, but he said they aren't always done right, but ours looked good.

Our lender requires hurricane insurance, fortunately because of our distance inland etc it costs almost nothing.  But on the other hand it only covers damage to the structure (basically the bank's interest).  Iselle destroyed our catchment cover and damaged fences, etc and none of it was covered.  But if one is considering some type of insurance, remember they won't issue policies when a storm is on it's way, it has to be purchased when there isn't an imminent threat.  Likewise, lumber for boarding up windows, gas cans, ice, water, generators, etc may not be available in the days and hours leading up to the storm.  Credit card machines, ATMs, chainsaws, and basic infrastructure may not be available after the storm.  This means no EBT either.  I was astounded how many people were arguing with the cashiers at the local store when they could only take CASH and somehow couldn't accept that checks are not CASH.  Big signs on the doors coming in CASH ONLY.  NO CREDIT CARDS OR CHECKS, NO EXCEPTIONS.

Evacuating can be a difficult decision to make regardless of the reason (storm, eruption, tsunami) because douchebags take advantage of them to rob people.  I don't know how many people evacuated because of Iselle, but I don't recall of hearing any damage to homes on the cliffs, but they were only accessible by foot for several days after the storm because all the streets were blocked by fallen trees, powerlines, etc.

We helped neighbors who didn't have any food, energy, or water.  Yeah, water.  In Puna.  They had catchment tanks full of water and no concept on how to get it out or make it drinkable.  Probably the easiest way is to use a hose to siphon it out, but a stepladder and a bucket, and maybe a rope work well too.

[AinaAKai]

The house is supposed to be built for Cat 3, but never having seen the power of a hurricane, I always wonder how far things fly. There are no trees by the house, but like with a tornado, there is a vortex which can spin things from even a mile away into your house. Does that happen with hurricanes?

I think what I am hearing is that there would be no special actions for someone on a cliff outside of hunker down in your own home and do standard prep with food, water, and power.