07-18-2023, 09:26 PM
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2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
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2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
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07-18-2023, 09:31 PM
winds are diverted, funneled,
If that held across the board, wouldn’t the saddle between the maunas create a Venturi effect? With a wind tunnel blasting through at increased speed? 
07-18-2023, 10:46 PM
Puna Weather Hilo Puna and Hamakua area Forecast 11am
Sunshine early, but clouds will increase today, leading to the first rain and wind from Calvin Tuesday evening, perhaps as early as 5PM. Rainfall will increase rapidly, becoming heavy at times by 10PM and possibly reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour after midnight and continuing like that into early Wednesday morning. Rain should dissipate to showers during the day on Wednesday, with more normal intensity showers continuing Wednesday afternoon into the night, as atmospheric stability returns in the wake of Calvin. Winds will also be increasing through the evening, peaking around 30 to 45 mph just after midnight. Expect slowly diminishing winds Wednesday afternoon and evening to more normal trade wind speeds as they veer to the E to SE. Total rainfall will be between 6 to 12 inches or more overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. More normal trade wind weather will replace Calvin's stormy conditions on Thursday and continue through the coming weekend. Since there is a strong possiblity that winds may increase to 35 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55mph over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, you still have an opportunity to ascertain that all loose objects are secured or removed from outside the home. Any albezia trees or other loosely rooted or with damaged limbs that may impact your property should already be cut down. Heavy rainfall is expected beginning Tuesday night and coniinuing into Wednesday. This could cause Flash Flooding and ponding of water in all low-lying areas and may make roads impassable at times. Trees my be toppled by the wind and soft soil and may block roads, as well. Listen to all Emergency Managers through this period for updates and Warnings. Waikoloa Forecast Sunny morning skies over Waikoloa, with atrengthening winds through Waimea becoming moderate to breezy downslope. Windy dowslope and offshore winds will likley continue on Tuesday, with sea beezes, if any, confined to the more immediate beaches and shorelines. Espect east to northeast downsloping winds to increase today, becoming possibly gale force, 35 to 45 mph gusting to 55mph by nightfall and continuing into Wednesday morning as Calvin approaches and moves by our island over or near South Point. Overcast skies with periods of rain will follow tonight, with some areas of heavy rainfall from Honoka`a, over the Waimea Saddle, to the upper slopes of Waikoloa, mainly to the vicinity of Mamalahoa Highway. Heavy rainfall and possible thunderstorms may also occuraround Hualaloai and vicinity. Rainfall will diminish gradually Wednesday, but with still a chance for some afternoon convective showers over all areas, including the Waikoloa Slope. Winds will remain strong and downslope in the early hours, with some areas like Kawaihae and vicinity receiving downsloping winds in excess or 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph due to the strong pressure gradient between the departing center of Calvin off our Kona Coast and the building high pressure northeast of our island. Winds will be diminishing by Wednesday night, however, as Calvin moves away. Waikoloa will see a return of the more normal summer pattern of sunny mornings, with some upslope afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, leading to clear nighttime skies on Thursday and continuing into the coming weekend. Expect highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s during this period, from the resorts to Waikoloa Village... albeit a bit cooler during the afternoons at the beaches due to the sea brezes and over the upper Waikoloa slope due to cloud cover. Hawaii Synopsis Wind speeds will increase rapidly from today through Wednesday as Tropical Storm Calvin produces strong and gusty winds, passing over or near South Point. Damaging wind speeds are possible across many parts of our island as Calvin approaches and passes by. Heavy showers and flooding conditions are expected due to deep unstable tropical moisture forced up the windward mountain slopes of our island. Calvin will likely weaken into a Tropical Depression by Wednesday and maintain a westward track moving away from our island Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect improving weather and wind conditions statewide by Thursday as we transition back to breezy trade wind pattern. Big Island Discussion A high pressure ridge north of the region will drive Tropical Storm Calvin westward into Hawaiian waters later tonight. Weather conditions will change rapidly today through Wednesday as Calvin, currently around 450 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, continues to quickly move towards the Big Island. The rapid east to west motion of Calvin will tend to limit Tropical Storm impacts to roughly a 12 to 18 hour time period over any one island. Wind Impacts: Calvin remains on a high confidence westerly track with the ridge north of the islands providing the main steering flow. This storm will continue to weaken as it approaches the Big Island due to cooler water temperatures, the ingest of stable dry air, and some vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Storm Force winds remain in the forecast as the center of the system passes near the south side of the Big Island tonight through early Wednesday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and surrounding waters due to the island's proximity to the Tropical Storm Force wind speeds surrounding the storm. Wind speeds will also increase statewide today through Wednesday as the storm remains on a track passing south of the smaller Hawaiian Islands. These winds will strengthen due to the increasing pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and the low pressure center associated with Calvin passing to the south. This means that wind speeds over the islands in Maui County will at least reach Wind Advisory thresholds and may exceed High Wind Warning criteria in some areas, even as Calvin weakens and passes to the south. Wind speeds will accelerate over and downwind of mountain slopes with stronger gusts expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect today for all islands in Maui County, A High Wind Watch was also issued for Maui County starting tonight for stronger winds expected on Wednesday. Additional Wind Advisory and High Wind Watch or Warning products may need to be extended to Oahu on Wednesday as Calvin passes to the south. For the moment, Kauai County will see less wind impacts from Calvin based on the latest storm track and intensity. Rainfall Impacts: Deep unstable tropical moisture surrounding Calvin will be driven up mountain slopes due to the strong wind forcing as the Tropical Storm passes each island. This means the potential for flash flooding remains elevated even for islands not directly in the path of the Tropical Storm. How far north these heavy rainfall impacts will occur is the forecast challenge with this event. The highest potential for heavy rain and flooding are expected along the windward slopes of the Big Island and windward slopes of the eastern half of Maui. Storm total rainfall amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range should be expected for the eastern slopes of the Big Island from North Kohala to the Hamakua Coast to Hilo to South Point, with 1 to 2 inches of rain forecast over the Kona side of the island. Maui may see between 2 to 6 inches of storm total rainfall from the North Shore near Haiku to East Maui near Hana. Other islands will see lower amounts between 0.25 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible favoring windward mountains and slopes. The Flood Watch remains in effect with the potential for flash flooding starting this evening over the Big Island and Maui County. This Flood Watch was expanded in coverage to include Oahu, Kauai and Niihau this morning, with enhanced flood threats to Oahu forecast to start early Wednesday morning potentially impacting the western islands. By Thursday, Calvin will continue to weaken and pass quickly west of the island chain. High pressure will build in quickly as the storm exits the region, producing more stable breezy trade wind weather with rapidly decreasing shower trends. This trade wind weather will continue through the upcoming weekend with upward trends in shower activity on Saturday and Sunday, mainly along windward and mountain slopes. Mahalo! Bob Farrell
07-19-2023, 01:55 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-19-2023, 01:57 AM by terracore.
Edit Reason: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/182357.shtml
)
STRENGTHENING?!
000 WTPA31 PHFO 182357 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Calvin Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032023 200 PM HST Tue Jul 18 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CALVIN STRENGTHENS FURTHER... ...IMPACTS IN HAWAII COUNTY STARTING THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 152.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 152.3 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 21 mph (34 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions will likely begin spreading over Hawaii County starting this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Calvin is expected to remain a tropical storm over the next 36 hours, and then will weaken quickly afterward. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header TCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO. and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/HFOTCDCP1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area starting this evening. Persons in Hawaii County should complete preparations for tropical storm force wind impacts during daylight hours prior to the onset of tropical storm conditions. RAINFALL: From later today into Thursday, storm total rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible, mainly along the windward and southeast flank of the Big Island of Hawaii. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are expected on the windward areas of Maui, and 2-4 inches elsewhere in the state. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin spreading across the main Hawaiian Islands later today and tonight. This will lead to a rapid increase in surf along east facing shores, with high surf continuing into Wednesday. This elevated surf will likely cause life-threatening conditions along exposed shorelines. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kodama https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HF...2357.shtml
07-19-2023, 02:43 AM
Yes, the trend is going in the wrong direction with higher winds forecast for us.
5PM update: (in case your phone didn't just go berserk with a warning like ours did)
238 WTPA41 PHFO 190240 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032023 500 PM HST Tue Jul 18 2023 A burst of deep convection north of the center today strengthened Calvin, and a couple of passes through the circulation by the US Air Force Reserve's Hurricane Hunters showed an increase in the winds. SFMR showed some peaks at around 55 kt, though these may have had some rain contamination. The on-board weather officer indicated 48-50 kt may be more reasonable. Reduction of flight level winds showed 45-50 kt in portions of the northern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 50 kt. The aircraft data also resulted in an increase in the 34 kt wind radii. The recent strengthening may have been a short term trend as the deep convection has eased since this morning with cloud top temperatures warming through the afternoon. The initial motion for this advisory is 275/18 kt as Calvin continues to move south of a large subtropical ridge. No significant changes in this steering is expected over the next several days. The main objective aids have the center of Calvin passing south of the Big Island tonight. The forecast for this advisory is essentially on the previous forecast track but slightly slower as a reflection of the slower initial motion. The forecast track also remains on the northern side of the guidance envelope. Although the center of Calvin is expected to pass south of the Big Island, most of the island is well within the 34 kt radius, and impacts from strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf are expected. Although Calvin strengthened today, the dynamical models suggest that this was a short term change and the forecast still calls for Calvin to pass south of the Big Island as a weakening tropical storm. Vertical shear affecting the tropical cyclone is expected to be moderate through tonight and into Wednesday, then will quickly become strong by Wednesday night. The strong shear should result in a weakening to post-tropical/remnant low status on Thursday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to pass south of Hawaii County tonight, bringing a period of flash flooding, dangerous surf and damaging winds. Calvin is expected to weaken as it moves westward to the south of the other Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing the potential for some peripheral impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.8N 153.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.4N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.9N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 163.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 167.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 19.9N 171.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
07-19-2023, 03:27 AM
"(in case your phone didn't just go berserk with a warning like ours did)"
Had my phone in my pocket and Iʻm a bit on edge anyway. It practically gave me a heart attack.
07-19-2023, 03:28 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwv7XHSwTlY
3,825 views Jul 18, 2023 Tropical Storm Calvin strengthened once again, from 50 mph with the 11 a.m. update to 60 mph with the 2 p.m. intermediate update. NWS said wind gusts are higher than that. Hawaii News, Hawaii Weather, Hawaii Sports See more of the team that is Working for Hawaii on our website: https://www.khon2.com Stay informed about Hawaii news, weather, sports and entertainment, subscribe to the KHON2 YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/KHONNews... Check out our morning news podcast: https://khon2.com/khon-2go Sign up to receive the latest Hawaii news in your inbox: https://nxslink.khon2.com/join/6sd/si... Stay informed about Hawaii news, weather, sports, and entertainment! Follow KHON2 on our social channels: / khonnewshawaii |
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