2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[Punaperson]

Thanks for bringing this thread back, tracking weather systems that may affect us.

The bickering is tedious, and gets skipped over with glazed eyes until a useful nugget of information is posted.

[terracore]

Dora the Explora:

[AaronM]

I hope the mauna gives Dora the Boot

[TomK]

Just an update for any that rely on this thread for storm info: Dora remains a hurricane and is in the central Pacific SW of Hawaii, but will pass a long way south of us and is not a current threat. Another area of disturbance in the east Pacific turned into tropical storm Eugene but it headed NW and its chances of survival are poor, to say the least, and is not a threat to Hawaii. There are no other threats to Hawaii at the moment.

[MyManao]

Dora remains a hurricane and is in the central Pacific SW of Hawaii, but will pass a long way south of us and is not a current threat..

Really? Cool. But I doubt someone living in a cane shack. or a tent, or any kind untethered structure would think 60mph winds are nothing..

From.. https://www.weather.gov/hfo/watchwarn

High Wind Watch
Issued Time:  August 06 03:24:00 PM HST
Expiring Time:  August 09 06:00:00 AM HST

Urgency:  Future
Status:  Actual

Event:  High Wind Watch

Message:  National Weather Service Honolulu HI
324 PM HST Sun Aug 6 2023
...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...
.The gradient between high pressure north of the main Hawaiian
Islands and Hurricane Dora passing safely south of the islands
will drive very strong and gusty easterly winds across the area
from Monday through Wednesday. A stable airmass and low inversion
will amplify this effect, especially over island terrain and
across leeward areas. This watch may be modified or upgraded later
tonight or early Monday.
324 PM HST Sun Aug 6 2023
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...East winds 25 to 45 mph with localized gusts over 60
mph possible.
* WHERE...Kahoolawe, Lanai, and portions of Maui and the Big
Island.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Instructions:  Take precautions now to protect property. Tie down loose objects or move them to a sheltered location.

Areas affected:  Big Island Interior, Kohala, Big Island Summit

[TomK]

Dora remains a hurricane and is in the central Pacific SW of Hawaii, but will pass a long way south of us and is not a current threat..

Really? Cool. But I doubt someone living in a cane shack. or a tent, or any kind untethered structure would think 60mph winds are nothing..

Do you mean the maunas will not protect us? How so? You said: "And still, the Maunas win every time". It seems there's a flaw in your argument.

PS. Oh, BTW, we get winds that strong every winter when the strong cold fronts hit us. I would hope anyone living in an untethered structure would know that by now.

[Obie]

I'm not on Island right now but my Granddaughter is,so before anyone panics like I did, be aware that MyManao posted a generic forecast for all of the Hawaiian Islands.

324 PM HST Sun Aug 6 2023
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...East winds 25 to 45 mph with localized gusts over 60
mph possible.
* WHERE...Kahoolawe, Lanai, and portions of Maui and the Big
Island.

Here is the actual forecast that mentions high winds.

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 45 to 55 mph with gusts in excess of 66 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Haleakala and the Big Island summits.

I'm pretty sure someone living in a cane shack. or a tent, or any kind untethered structure at the top of the Big Island summits is used to high winds.

[AaronM]

If anyone actually "relies on this thread" for their weather information, I feel deeply sorry for them!

[MyManao]

If anyone actually "relies on this thread" for their weather information, I feel deeply sorry for them!

No kidding, with our wannabe scientist going on as if he's the second coming it's a joke..

As to wind's interaction with the islands, it is interesting to note how, again, on windy.com, we see the wind, graphically, altered by its interaction with the island as the current storm passes to our south.

And, just for fun, here's a few articles on the island's effects on the wind that passes through..

NASA has an interesting article call Little Islands Big Wake which includes this quote..

“If you look at a large region of the Pacific Ocean, you can barely see the Hawaiian Islands. But if you look at the winds or currents in that region, you can clearly see the influence of the Hawaiian Islands. It’s very pronounced.”

And then there's this article which posses the question How often do tropical systems impact the Hawaiian Islands? which in part says..

"These are mountainous islands, you throw in a weakening tropical system, and it's just going to cause a washout."

But of course, in Tom's addled mind the islands have no impacts. Sheesh, with his modeling there'd be no difference between the windward and leeward side of the island. And yet he claims to be a science.. go figure.

[TomK]

MyManao, it's a shame you have to rely on a straw man in order to argue something. Incidentally, I've not modeled anything when it comes to storms and I'm not taking your bait.

---

In other news:

I'm not on Island right now but my Granddaughter is,so before anyone panics like I did, be aware that MyManao posted a generic forecast for all of the Hawaiian Islands.

[...]


Here is the actual forecast that mentions high winds.

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 45 to 55 mph with gusts in excess of 66 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Haleakala and the Big Island summits.

I'm pretty sure someone living in a cane shack. or a tent, or any kind untethered structure at the top of the Big Island summits is used to high winds.

Yes, they are. Winds are currently pretty low all over the Big Island right now according to the NWS, but at the upper levels the winds are strong - the summit of MK is currently seeing 75 mph gusts. Given the summit has experienced 180 mph winds in the recent past, these are pretty mild winds in comparison.