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Jack of All Trades?! He is the one who publicly bet me on Konaweb a copule of years ago that the prices in Leilani Estates ($20K,) HPP ($25K,) Royal Hawaiian Estates ($10K,) Nanawale Estates ($10K,) and Discovery Harbour ($50K) will not increase at least 50% during the next 2-3 years. (Those were the prices back then.) He lost the bet on all accounts and being as a good character as he is he never even paid up. I certainly wouldn't trust his judgement.
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
Edited by - John S. Rabi on 03/16/2007 16:10:06
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I see that RE sales are way down from last march. The problem is that sellers are holding out for high prices, and can't sell at what they expect to get. By 2008 they will have to give up and drop the prices quite a bit, given that foreclosure real estate will be hitting the market heavy, by then and forcing prices down. Hold on don't buy yet.
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Lew, the lending institutions are not interested in real estate holdings, especially not when the values are maybe less than the loan amounts. Most people don't want to be foreclosed on either so it is a win-win situation for both parties. I fully expect the lending institutions to work with the borrowers and rewrite those loans. I don't expect to see a flood of foreclosures.
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
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While I agree with John that Banks don't like REO, I see some problems.
First the WS banks bought alot of these loans repackaged them and old this MBS to hedgefunds, pensions and investors. As these MBS start showing more deterioration the investors will want the WS lenders to buy them back and the lawsuits will start. Say the lenders do want to work something with the buyers at 30 yr 7%, how many J6Ps will want to chase a degrading asset when they are behind, how many J6Ps can qualify for the new loan when they used a NINJA or NINA to get the first loan and how many can pay 7% when they are strecthed with their IO or ARM?
Next how will WS, pension funds and investor write downs affect the economy and job market? If people aren't buying how will this affect the construction trades? And how does a MBS holder seek foreclosure, throught the servicing company? REO owned by Hawaii/Colorado/California State Pension? This will be interesting.
I say jingle mail will be the order of the day.
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That's funny, real estate prices are up! March Big Island median prices are again very near all time highs. Real estate prices in Los Angeles are still moving up. Also, the economy is doing great, the stock market is at a all time high, unemployment is at a very low level, interest rates are not too bad.. existing home sales are way up... I see construction going on everywhere... I wonder how many people on Punaweb who are negative on real estate own real estate? I have a feeling the non owners are negative, hoping for the big crash which will never come.
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I own property on the BI and I'm hoping for a crash. I want to buy more.
Pua`a
S. FL
Big Islander to be.
Pua`a
S. FL
Big Islander to be.
Posts: 129
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Joined: Apr 2006
Radioguy, you might find this interesting about California:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070405/20070405005800.html
"Foreclosures sold at auction now account for 15% of all home sales in California and continue to rise," said Sean O'Toole, CEO and Founder of Foreclosure Radar. "This isn't just a story about failing subprime lenders and their customers. At the current pace, foreclosures will be a significant part of the real estate economy. A fact which bears close scrutiny even in areas that are not yet affected."
I have heard the jealous renter thing from many people I talk with about housing. Well I own houses (just some acreage in HI actually). I always bring up cost to rent vs. buying I breakout my HP 12C financial calculator and start breaking out numbers. People just give me blank stares confronted with hard numbers, many probably wonder where I got that magic machine and how does he do reverse polish notation. I see WS as a bit overvalued, heck I remember how analyst said we were supposed to hit Dow 30k by 2012. I think Hawaii will be a trailing indicator in RE. I would agree on interest rates. Disagree on unemployment, we have lost more good paying jobs and replaced them with lower paying jobs, but that doesnt show up in the indications. Existing home sales??? Are we talking nation wide? Builders and seller are stealing from Rachael Carson on this one, "Silent Spring" ring any bells.
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I think the leveling off of the housing market is a great thing. We bought our house and paid cash and we’re in it for the long haul. So, a short down turn in house prices is good because we can buy a second house for a lot less and rent it out. Or, just maybe a lot and hold on to it and build later.
As far as employment goes it couldn’t be better in the construction industry. I work for a large G.C. in Hilo. We are having a very difficult time recruiting new employees.
There are no union painters in the hall and when working prevailing wage protects (County, State or Federal) they make $35 an hour and their benefits on top of that. Laborers at $25 plus and equipment operators around $35 plus benefits. Please do the math on a 50-hour workweek. I wish I were back in the field instead of management.
If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it cost when it’s free...now here come the taxes.....
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There was a full page of foreclosures in the Honolulu paper. Some of them had Big Island TMKs on them. A lot of the lower end construction workers are not working anymore, the new workers and the young ones.
Folks are now getting their permits through the building department much faster and the ground crews are showing up immediately as soon as the jobsite is ready for them. Competitive bids and no waiting, it's a good time to be building a house - if you can do it without having to sell one to finance it.
"I like yard sales," he said. "All true survivalists like yard sales."
Kurt Wilson
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Latest nationwide news is that Real Estate prices have fallen to the lowest prices in 18 years. Good news for buyers, but those looking to sell their mainland homes and move to the islands may have to wait or take a loss. The Hawaii prices should finally start to decline at the end of the year, when the realization that people are not going to pay inflated prices sinks in.
Always do what evers next.
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