Volcano acting up

[Noel M2]

One thing we can be thankful for is the oozing nature of our volcano. I found an article regarding a more explosive Vesuvius and could not help but think how fortunate we are.

http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0...uvius.html

Noel

[AlohaSteven]

Hi-

Is anyone observing any changes--stemming directly from the newest volcanic vent activity--in Puna:
-real estate values,
-lenders' willingness to finance new construction in Puna,
-insurance availability,
-number of parcels available for sale?

Anchorage is sitting directly above ground zero of the biggest earthquake ever recorded in North America and has two explosive volcanoes nearby yet real estate values and trade are robust with ample lender financing and insurance available. San Francisco and the Bay Area need no description- there is virtually no connection between seismic hazard and market chilling there, based on results. How is this playing out in Puna, I wonder- similarly to Anchorage and SF or differently? If differently, then why?

Noel M2 mentions explosive volcanoes such as Vesuvius; I wonder what land values, lender financing for new construction, and insurance availability are like around Vesuvius and Stromboli. Are there any Italianos on list who could comment?

Best,
AlaskaSteven

[JerryCarr]

I think this thing is not yet on a lot of outside people's radar, like mortgage lenders and insurance companies. If the lava gets close to cutting the highway or enters housing areas, things will get really crazy really fast. I would expect property values would fall in threatened areas (once it becomes evident which those might be) and in areas perceived as about to be cut off from commuting, shopping, etc., but I could be wrong. I am sure there are people on the forum who remember what happened when Royal Gardens got hit. I just want it to go back to being a tourist attraction INSIDE the National Park.

[JerryCarr]

HVO updated their maps this morning. It appears that nearly all the advance of the flow since 26 October has been toward the southeast, and they show the presumed paths of lava tubes with dotted yellow arrows. They are supposed to to a flyover today to check the outflow from the northern tube, but the weather so far is not promising for that.

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/update/maps.html

Cheers,
Jerry



Edited by - JerryCarr on 11/02/2007 10:57:11

[NanawaleJulie]

How long does lava take to cool and harden? I guess I am asking, if it did this damage, how long would it take to be able to bulldoze 130? Months, years?

[DanielP]

The maps were updated again this morning, now showing an increased flow area on the south west flank and showing the location of Pu'u Kia'i.

Dan

"A greatful heart is priceless"

[mella l]

At the suggestion I moved this post from the Bombs thread. Thanks Jerry!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The only good use for bombs in Hawaii, other than those for defense purposes, in my opinion;

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1264/of2007-1264.pdf

If you look at the above map on Jim's PDF file for the current eruption, my mind tells me if a 2,000 lb bomb was dropped on the southerly red line, just when it was encroaching the yellow area (previous flow), it might have allowed the hot lava to reenter the yellow area of the previous most current damaged areas.

How about declaring the remainder of Royal Gardens as beyond redemption, paying off the land and property owners and encouraging all lava flows to that area, by bombing gaping holes in the flows on the south side? Probably not tractable?

Why this wasn't or isn't done is my question. The only theory I can come up with is that the study of the volcano is of utmost importance and number one priority.

mella l


mella l

[malolo]

Hmmm...yes...well...and so it follows, naturally, that we should should be bombing California as well, yah?...to relieve the pressures on the faults?...to prevent the "big one?'...and the tsunamis that will undoubtedly result?

Hmmm...I know!...maybe that's what Bush had planned for the Iraqi's all this time...natural disater prevention! What a guy.

[Wegian]

I’ve been researching what people in other countries do to ward off volcanic eruptions. My findings so far include offerings of live animals, rice, fruit, and cow livers - which are to be thrown into the crater. People from villages surrounding Mount Kelud turn off all lights and only talk in whispers. Local farmers living on Mount Merapi run naked in circles around their villages.

Since I cannot be there to do this personally, could I ask some of my fellow Punatics to please climb up to the flow (after dark of course – and WITHOUT flashlights), dump in a bucket of coqui (to satisfy the live animal requirement), followed by a medley of rice and fruit, and a couple of cow’s livers. Afterwards, run naked laps around Hawaiian Acres while whispering to each other. Please - the fate of my lot may depend on it.

[Kapohocat]

U.S. Geological Survey
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
PO Box 51, Hawai`i National Park, HI 96718
Phone (808) 967-7328 FAX (808) 967-8890

VOLCANO WATCH – 1 November 2007

Changes in lava flows intensify questions to scientists

As soon as lava began flowing on the north side of Kilauea’s east rift zone from a new vent on July 21, questions arose among residents of the Puna District.

How long will the new vent remain active? Where is the lava going? Could flows eventually threaten our community? How long will it take flows to travel the 16 km (10 miles) to Highway 11? Will the lava keep moving northeast toward us or will it move south away from us?

Answering these and other questions was the main reason why scientists of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) stepped up its monitoring efforts and prepared a report about lava flow hazard from the new activity. The report was released only five weeks after the new vent erupted (available online, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1264/).

Many of the same questions are still being asked, but development of a lava tube within the past two weeks has created a new sense of urgency among Puna residents for an update on the current hazard assessment.

The challenge for scientists is twofold: (1) providing frequent, accurate updates of the activity and location of flows; and (2) modifying the assessment of hazards to lower Puna based on significant changes in the activity.

So far, even with the recent development lava tubes, updating the assessment is not yet warranted. All of the flows since mid-August have only widened the lava flow field. No flow has moved in a consistent direction for more than 1-3 weeks at a time, and none have moved more than the 6.3 km (4 miles) maximum length reached by an `a`a flow in August.

Since late August, lava flows have (1) spilled over the lava channel to build it as high as 30 m (100 ft) above the surrounding ground; (2) poured on top of, or alongside, the earlier flows (thereby widening and thickening the flow field); and (3) leaked from the sides of the perched channel, traveling, at most, a few hundred meters (yards) from the channel.

In the hazard assessment, scientists wrote that the longer the current activity continues, the greater the likelihood of a lava tube developing. Lava tubes insulate lava, keeping it hotter and more fluid than surface flows. The tube-transported lava can travel greater distances from the erupting vent, enabling the formation of fluid pahoehoe flows farther away.

The formation of a tube does not mean that lava is now on a fast track to Highway 11 or to the communities in the Puna District. A tube formed early in an eruption rarely remains intact for weeks to months. Changes in the channel or lava supply may “starve” the tube or form several new ones in different locations.

During the Pu`u `O`o and Kupaianaha activity, it took from weeks to months to form a well-developed lava tube system that fed lava flows farther and farther from the vents. It will take even longer to form a well-developed tube system over the very gradual to nearly flat terrain of the current activity.

How long will it take? For flows moving northeast from the channel, it will likely take at least a few months to build a robust tube system within several km (miles) of the vent, especially if there are multiple flows going in different directions at the same time. It will take even longer for the flows to spread far enough to begin threatening communities and infrastructure.

In the past week, scientists observed at least two lava tubes fed directly from the lava channel, possibly three. Lava from these tubes are forming pahoehoe flows on the north and south sides of the flow field, and `a`a and pahoehoe flows on top of the flow field. All the flows are less than 5 km (3 miles) from the vent­no farther than the mid-August flows.

The lava channel and flow field near the vent continue to change, sometimes rapidly and in spectacular fashion. Though frustrating to many, it is not possible for scientists to predict lava flow behavior­speed, direction, and extent­and final outcomes of the current activity. Lava flows are continually building new features and changing their course by the week, both of which affect the channel geometry and paths of future flows.

But HVO can, and will, keep the public apprised of the current activity via the media, Web site ( http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov), and community presentations, and continue to focus efforts to assess the implications for communities of the Puna District that may be affected by the new activity.