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Aloha,
The real estate market in San Diego is in a stall. How far she plunges before turning around is anyone's guess -- and we all hope the "airplane" doesn't hit the ground! I think there is more to lose on this end than there is to gain on that end. Although Puna prices were rising through 2006 and part of 2007, they were always ridiculously reasonable relative to California. Relative to Puna, California prices were hyper-inflated, and I don't think we will see that level of inflation again soon. My guess is that prices will return to 2001 levels or so and stay there for a good long while. So, a house that was worth $330 in 2001, and $725,000 at the heighth will go back down to $350 or so.
Prices in Puna will also go down (because they are almost entirely dependent on the mainland market), but they don't have as far down to go.
Here is hoping that irrational exuberance reigns again on the California side and that you make the jump before prices start to go up again on the Puna side!
One thing that could help is the proposal to permit Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee loans over $417k -- most California homes are (or were) at that price point or above. That would ease restrictions on jumbo loans so we can resume, to some degree, the insanity we were experiencing before!
Gee -- someone tell me.....did I do anything crazy during my irrational exuberance....like buy another house??
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For a historical perspective on California's housing market of a couple of years ago, I recommend "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay. It doesn't deal with that situation (since it was written over 100 years ago) but it does talk quite well about the situations that can lead to economic ridiculousness.
John Dirgo, R, ABR, e-PRO
Aloha Coast Realty, LLC
808-987-9243 cell
http://www.alohacoastrealty.com
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I am extensively involved in the Real Estate Market in Ohio. We ALL need to stop listening to all of the gloom and doom the media is portraying. It seems that if the big media outlets want a recesiion, they start talking about it. If they say the housing market is bad, they start pushing that. Yes, there are a lot of homes for sale, but the top Realtors I know don't seem to be suffering from lack of sales. The media creates a perception of reality that is not necessarily true. We have seen this before in the early 80's. The market will recover. Just stay positive and hang in there!
Dennis
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Yesterday, it was reported that, although foreclosures in Hawaii have increased, the state ranks 43rd in the nation. What happens to the nation will, of course, affect Hawaii, but apparently not to the extent that its affecting other areas.
We are, after all, a group of islands.
John Dirgo, R, ABR, e-PRO
Aloha Coast Realty, LLC
808-987-9243 cell
http://www.alohacoastrealty.com
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Glenn, next time you see your friend with too much money in the bank, suggest she look into buying some gold and silver bullion and then keep it somewhere other than a safety deposit box. That's the hard part! I've heard rumors of runs on some banks already although I think most of the runs were on British banks.
A lot of hope of keeping land values up is in folks coming over here and buying retirement places. However, what percentage of folks who have been saving up for a retirement place had their savings in some sort of fund with portions of it in "real estate backed securities"? When the finance folks are talking about writing off billions and now up to trillions of dollars, it has to come from somewhere!
Personally, I'd prefer land values to drop to the point where families can survive on one income again like they did several generations ago. Then families can have time to be families and not just strangers all living under one roof and struggling to pay the rent.
"I like yard sales," he said. "All true survivalists like yard sales."
Kurt Wilson
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I've usually noticed hawaii getting hit by any mainland downer at a later date. Top end real estate on oahu is still doing good, but the bottom is slipping. Mabe shaky loans are harder to make when "affordable" is 1/2 million!
I'd think we would see some raw land drops here, but not so far, flat sales but no fire sales.
The coming Royal Garden finale, which is coming will do wonders for lower Puna. I'm betting live coverage by CNN!
Gordon J Tilley
Gordon J Tilley
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The economy will depend very much on WHO becomes the next president and WHICH party gets elected. If a democrat gets in with a different attitude to the 'Hawks' currently calling all the shots THEN the economy will rebound. War and it's cost of billions DOES affect peoples spirits ( Low, depressed, insecure )...Tragically though the military business machine benefits which leads me to the republican choice for president: If Mr.McCain gets elected and keeps America on this bomb,bomb, attack attack policy then the economy will SINK. Being British. I along with the majority of British cannot fathom how the American public have blindly allowed King Bush and Prince Cheney to ruin America's image around the world. Whomever you vote for please do not give them unlimited power. 'Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely'...Let's vote in someone who will use diplomacy. I urge you all to vote for a 'Dove' and ignore the 'scare and fear' tactics that the Republicans will employ. Anyone remember 'The Russians are coming--The Russians are coming!!' ( They weren't ) Don't allow fear to decide who is the next President. My apologies for becoming too political here but I do see a big connection between war, war, war and the economy which no one seems to mention.Why[?][?]
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We tend to avoid politics here on Punaweb, except local politics, with occaisional, and usually good-natured lapses.
But as an American I have two words to say to you: Tony Blair. Make that three words: Poodle Tony Blair.
You have a point, though, that the Iraq war is very expensive and is dragging down the economy. Fifteen billion a month is a lot of money. What we are getting for that money is anyone's guess. What government contractors are getting is clearer.
The next President will have her or his hand's full. Fasten your seat belt, it's going to be a bumpy few years.
Don't shoot the messenger[  ]
...Sales of single-family homes on the Big Island last month were down compared to January 2007, continuing a downward trend from last year....
According to MSN
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Coming home soon!
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Thank you gentlemen,
Now let's keep it Hawaii.
Aloha
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