Heads up: drought!

[JWFITZ]

Please take the time to read:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic/current/drought/hfo.htm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

I've tried to post the least controversial, most credible links I could find. As well, the most watered down, but that's how it goes.

This trend on the big island, according to all models I've seen, should continue--in spite of the fact that the north pacific is on about an 8 year(on average) cooling trend. The impacts for the leeward ecologies, and certainly the leeward economies, are likely to be severe. It is no question that research is/will be/should be underway determining whether development on the windward side of the island is exacerbating the drought conditions on the leeward--and unquestionably the results will be positive. By development I mean nothing more or less the cutting of any forest stand, of any species, for any purposes--as it is these canopies with topography that maintains our local rain-fall patterns. Every tree removed has an effect. A small effect, but an effect none-the-less.

I'm just wondering when the shoe will drop from the state level, policy will come to Puna. At some point a building moratorium will be necessary to save Hawaii. At THIS point it would be good to take that drastic step while there is something of both ecology and economy to save.

Stuff to think about, and I'd like to hear other's informed views.

[JWFITZ]

To clarify, to the point. There is a lot of big money on the Kona side that is waking up to the fact that development on our side is stealing "their" rain.

The studies are already underway.

[Bob Orts]

quote:

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Originally posted by JWFITZ

I'm just wondering when the shoe will drop from the state level, policy will come to Puna. At some point a building moratorium will be necessary to save Hawaii. At THIS point it would be good to take that drastic step while there is something of both ecology and economy to save.

Stuff to think about, and I'd like to hear other's informed views.

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So your proposing a moratorium on building based on:
1. An environmental issue
2. That impacts not a specific limited area
3. That has a regional impact
4. That can not be resolved through the current system
5. And is designed to come up with a plan
6. By a government or quasi-government entity

Is that correct?

( For you legal/planning folks: Tahoe? Dolan? Nolan? Lucus? All?)

[JWFITZ]

No, I'm not proposing any sort of thing. I'm suggesting what may well be in the works in the near future, because of the large punch the Kona side of the island has, and the fact that they're in real trouble with real economic loss. They are going to grasp at any straw to ease the situation. There is precedent for these sorts of actions, especially concerning water supplies. The research is currently underway, and I'll post a couple of papers that are nibbling around the edges of the issue next chance I get. The DATA, as well, suggests the same. There's good evidence indeed that deforestation on the windward side of the island does indeed alter rainfall elsewhere.

This is a small island, and turf battles are going to begin at some point. Those resorts want those golf courses green. . .

[EightFingers]

I thought the leeward sides of the islands were supposed to brown. I'm not really getting the idea that cutting trees will have that much of an effect on the trades and how they interact with the islands. Usually as moist wind is forced upward, it cools and rain is formed. Trees or lack of are not going to make a lot of difference considering the highest 4000 or so feet of the volcanoes are basically tree-less. Forest acreage on Hawaii is very small compared to Central America where the trees definitely have a huge affect on the climate.
I'm not for clear-cutting either so don't go after me for that - I love trees and plan to leave 90% of my land in forest.
If I'm wrong, let me know, I don't mind someone showing me I'm wrong and it makes for good discussion. <<smilie>>

[Kapohocat]

quote:

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Originally posted by JWFITZ...
This is a small island, and turf battles are going to begin at some point. Those resorts want those golf courses green. . .

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Dont they used reclaimed water for the golf courses? I was under this impression but please some one correct this information if I am wrong.

PS it is pouring rain down here today.

-Cat

[JWFITZ]

Hi,

Yes the leeward side is always drier, the question is simply how much drier.

The reason cutting effects rainfall patters is pretty simple really. The island makes its own rain. The average rainfall only a few miles offshore is only about 20 to 30 inches a year. The reason it rains on the island so much is a factor of topography--the rapid climb in altitude and vertical relief in general sweeps relatively moisture laden marine air up, which cools, and the water load drops as rain. This is why you have a band around the islands at a more or less equal altitude with more or less equal rainfall. Below, the air doesn't drop moisture because it hasn't cooled enough(due to climb in altitude and the resultant drop in pressure) and above the rain band, the climate is arid as most of the water has already been wrung out. As well, the heavy vegetation locally affects weather, both by simply absorbing rainfall, which evaporates to some degree, and re-rains--and by moderating the daily rise in temperature, as forested areas warm slower and in general maintain more constant temperatures than do croplands, structures, roads, and the like. This is important, because thermals are generated above hot surfaces--this punctures holes in the TWI(trade wind inversion) that generates most of the rain that sneaks over to the Kona side, and potential rainfall is simply swept up into the upper atmosphere and blown away from the island. You can see the effect if you look. You will see clouds spawn in certain areas, others rain, and above clearings and the like you will see in low cloud structure the obvious turbulence caused by rising air. It will look just like I describe, like you were blowing air through smoke or a fog. Every time that happens, that percentage of precipitation is lost from the island.

It's a matter of both the rain we get from the trades, and the rain we keep on the island to make up our total rainfall.

As atmospheric temperatures increase, these small effect play much more significant roles.

[Greg]

I've heard there's a great deal of groundwater flowing to the sea under the Kona plain. I wonder if they could utilize this for agriculture. I don't really think we need more golf courses, but it seems like there's a great crop potential there.

[missydog1]

For awhile now, and prior to the drought, development has been stalled in North Kohala in part due to inadequate water supply. County water covers Hawi and eastward (although not sure if it goes all the way to Pololu). On the leeward side, there is only private well water.

Waikoloa Village runs off a private water company.
Kohala Ranch and Kohala Estates do too, expensive water compared to County.

Puakea Bay area was slated to get a golf course but it would have put pressure on the two subdivisions above.

On the windward side of North Kohala, the County was refusing to issue water meters to new subdivisions (or only the most special). There are thousands of acres up there owned by Surety Kohala, which is a Japanese corporation that bought up the old Kohala Sugar Mill land. They would love to over-develop that area, but for water and to some extent the moratorium on changing Ag zoning to allow smaller parcels.

Water is a big deal; however, considering there are no County pipes taking water to much of Kohala, I'm not sure that the water is easily distributed to those areas, rain or no rain.

The County has two wells serving North Kohala windward, both of which were out of order at the same time back last October, the weekend of the Kohala County Fair, because one had been down and then a part failed on the other. (I was there.) Wells, not a system of water mains connecting to the rest of the island.

What I'm trying to say is that the distribution infrastructure is lacking for some of the desired developments. And the rain that falls on my property (north of Hilo) doesn't go anywhere "useful." It drains out to the ocean. The important rain would be the rain that feeds the reservoirs, right? Is it accurate to say that all building and tree-cutting has an effect on that specific rain?

Not trying to be argumentative. I really don't know.

I have too many trees, mostly African tulip trees, and I think thinning them would be a good thing, but not to worry, I can't afford to do it.

[Daniel]

I attended a forum at the mokupapapa discovery center where this was the subject addressed. The speaker was Dr. Juvik From UHH who is basically the Guru of this subject. He said that that one could pave the mountains from top to bottom and we would still get 150 inches of rain. The rain causes that plants to grow, plants don't make rain. He did mention that in areas where there is fog, condensation occurs on trees dripping down to add the the percipitation. You will notice on saddle road green rings under some trees as evidence of this. But the fact is the mountain makes the difference, not the trees. Don't get me wrong, I love the trees, they make living here so nice, but their effect on the rain is minute.

Daniel R Diamond