Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Anyone Feeling Sick???
#21
Well, I don't mind accusing people of things. Here's an accusation, and a well founded one.

I'm accusing you, Paul, of going out of your way to be tiresomely intent creating disputes, sneaking around and trying to find things to disagree with. I don't see any constructive end to it, as it's rare indeed that you add anything to the conversation but disagreement. What's the point?

While some might appreciate your self-appointed position as the truth police, or rather truth-as-you-see-it-police, perhaps not all of us find that kind of hubris that charming. Faulty math? That's preposterous. Where the faulty math comes in is to look at numbers offered in a conversational setting and cherry pick the most implausibly possible interpretation, and then critique that. It's pretty transparent. There would be at least a dozen ways to read the numbers I've offered--perhaps in a far too off the cuff manner--but again your response is to try to read them in the most contentious manner that you could possibly think of and then attempt to parade all that around. Sure, there are numbers for deaths world wide for the Spanish flu that range from 2 to 100 million people. They don't know. It's a generalization. The outbreak lasted from 6 months to 6 years in places. Again a generalization. Some places had no deaths, some had mortality rates of 20 percent or higher. A generalization again. It doesn't bother me to put a sensible middle number on the whole thing for the purpose of given a reasonable sense of expected scale of impact. It too, will be a generalization. No doubt all of these numbers are subject to dispute. But, simply to quibble generalizations? For what end, what's the point?

Just recreational disagreement?

Really, I don't mind constructive disagreement, and beyond that I don't care much what non-constructive people think. I do, however, think it's important that it's understood that most of us do see the difference between people that sincerely attempt to offer meaningful discourse and constructive input as opposed to people who just get off on being an ass. At the very least those of the latter groups should not have the luxury of pretending that their intent isn't completely clear to the rest of us. And that's my point with this post.

There are two ways to work through a disagreement. One is to snipe at one's "opponent's" position and attempt to break it down. The other is to offer one's own views with the hope that they are ultimately more convincing. While at times there may be a place for both, certainly the first tactic is more small-minded and contentious than the latter. I think most of us would agree by and large while attempting to persuade in a constructive rather than destructive manner is more demanding--ultimately it is much more effective.

So back to the topic at hand. To clarify and restate: It is my belief with a little sensible preparation the risks that we locally might face from a potential flu pandemic can be greatly reduced. Don't panic.
Reply
#22
I am not going out and buying 50# of rice. I do have plenty of food to survive, but we would not eat 50# of rice in a year.

Secondly... I don't believe this is going to be anything to really worry about.

Thirdly, if it does come to Hawaii... we are all (most of us) going to be at risk the way we always hug and kiss people when coming and going here.

There has been "a" flu going around here for the last 2 months. Almost everyone I know (but me) has had it in some form, even people I know who had flu shots.

Relax and look around you. Life is good here. Don't worry, be happy.





Aloha au i Hawai`i,
devany

www.myhawaiianhome.blogspot.com
www.eastbaypotters.blogspot.com
Reply
#23
I'm up at this hour because I have "it" again.

Having some extra chow in the house is more than having it for the sole purpose of hiding out for a week or 2. I'm thinking disruption of the food supply.

Concerning the feud between JWFITZ and PaulW, it's always important for numbers to be correct.
Reply
#24
C

Life insurance doesn't pay your hospital bills if you are in a bad accident and have to be laid up for months, and what about if you have a terminal illness for years and you are in constant need of care just to be comfortable. What do you do if you get sick, e.g. get an excrutiatingly painful ear infection that won't go away without antibiotics?

You may not be so lucky to die peacefully and quietly one day so your life insurance kicks in smoothly.
Reply
#25
Good morning.

Let me point out again. There's no feud. If one feels that numbers are important enough to the topic that casual generalizations do not suffice--which I don't, but others may--the constructive thing to do is to inform the conversation by adding one's own numbers. I'm all about making the conversation and any conversation as well informed and rigorous as possible. Let's just make sure we all hold ourselves to the same standards. This is an important enough issue that stupid bickering is an unconscionable distraction.

As well lets attempt to understand the difference between "objective facts" such that they might be--which are subject to correction and rightly so, and "analysis" which is always subjective and subject to interpretation. I moved pretty quickly from one to the other no question. It happens a lot around here. It's important that one see the methodology before critiquing the conclusion--and well, I didn't post one, so no one is fairly in a position to critique it. Whether to ignore the difference either because of ignorance or deliberate attempts to be contentious does matter. It's not constructive.
Reply
#26
"My observation being the Spanish Flu pandemic killed estimated 20 million people world wide in a population of 2 billion estimated, world wide"

"At that rate of mortality we'd expect about 20 fatalities on the Big Island."

Actually at that rate we'd expect 1440 fatalties on the Big Island, 77 as many.

"Faulty math? That's preposterous"

If you won't even admit you're wrong on such a minor matter as dividing one number by another
and multiplying it by a third number, then discussion with you really is pointless.
Your innumeracy does explain a lot though.

Got any more insults? Compare me to a barking dog again!!
Reply
#27
That would be true if that's what I was suggesting. Try thinking of it as an annualized risk rate. That's plausible too, if one isn't quick to jump to critique other's conclusions. I'm annualizing it to compare it to the also annualized risk rate of dying in a car crash involving a drunk driver. This is where one might find a factor of fifty or so.

Reply
#28
The topic here is getting lost in the bickering.

It's not necessary and it's not particularly informative.

I will repeat my mantra for Punaweb: Assume the best and ask questions.

Punaweb moderator
Assume the best and ask questions.

Punaweb moderator
Reply
#29
Fitz

I think you may be overreacting. All you need to do is back up your facts and numbers with reputable and recognised sources and you won't be challenged by your statements of fact. You can have an opinion on what wine goes best with your steak or what color looks best on your walls, but numbers are cold hard facts and can be proven either right or wrong, so no need to get so het up.

Reply
#30
I no wish to distract this or any other discussion. Let's move forward.

If numbers continue to be important, other views as to what the annualized risk rate of dying in a flu pandemic might be constructive to the conversation, now that my suggestion has been rejected. I'd be interested to know what those numbers might be.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 20 Guest(s)