Predictions for 2010

[808blogger]

I dont agree with your optimism on real estate, I know its your business but, You have to ask where is all the money coming from that is going to fund the rebound? if prices rebound and get back to the 2005 prices soon watch out. Those are just nominal values and do not reflect reality, those are simply prices denominated in dollars. IF the nominal values of homes rebound, we will be in for a sticker shock every where you turn. The real estate market has not been cleared and the government is still intervening in the market preventing a clearing. you have people renegotiating the mortgages with the bank, i have seen the offer they are TERRIBLE. I have yet to see one that offered a principal reduction, instead they simply shuffle interest terms around to lower payments but still delay the inevitable.

Also this graph should scare the crap out of anyone
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/200...serves.jpg
the fed is curently PAYING interest on reserves held in the fed. the bailout monies and others have been "given" to the banks and then placed on deposit at the fed, where they are GETTING PAID TO SIT THE MONEY.

What happens when the banks decide to release this into the market place?

Will interest rates rise? what will that do?

quote:

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Originally posted by John S. Rabi

I disagree with Kathy. The highest point of the real estate market was in November of 2005 and most people on the funny mortgages were locked in for three years, so we are past of the adjusting period. Those home owners either already have been foreclosed on or they already "survived." The REO properties will dry up and the real estate market will rebound after that.

If you bet on the stock market, go with the emerging markets, those stocks are the first ones to take off in a recovery.

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, GM,PB,ABR,CRB,CM,FHS
808.327.3185
johnrabi@johnrabi.com
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"

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[Dave M]

quote:

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Originally posted by 808blogger


The Audit the fed bill will be passed

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Ex freakin cuse me.. Didn't I say there would be "NO" Transparency at the Fed?? I used larger font. How dare your prediction contradict mine. You know I'm funnin wit ya.. right? [:o)] I so want me to be wrong, and you to be right that I'm going to risk having Rob throw me off PUNAWEB.

Here is info on HR 1207 which has made it through the finance vote. But it's far from passed. The reason I'm going to put this link up is that people all over need to contact their Representatives. Hawaii is right up there at the top as a co sponsor but that can change as we get closer to the vote.

http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/aud...e-hr-1207/

It doesn't matter what side of the political spectrum you come from this is one of the most important issues facing our country and the Hawaii economy right now. Go check out the website and study up on the Fed.. you will be amazed at what you thought you knew..

If I'm wrong (which hardly ever happens then this Country will be a much better and informed place.. So get out there and prove me wrong Punatics.

Meanwhile, I stand by my prediction "No Transparency" at the FED!!!

Blessings,
dave

"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young

[808blogger]

We actually agree. a bill will be passed IMHO but as you correctly pointed out, it will not provide transparency.

Even Ron Paul knows the constitution is a CONTRACT, that is why even his participation in the system is logically incorrect and i think he knows it

As far as this is concerned for Puna residents, we will continue to see real estate fall in REAL TERMS and the economy to stagnate. In REALITY and not a BUBBLE. Real estate prices are a function of the renal market. Who is going to afford to pay rent when there are no jobs locally? Section 8 thats who. now how many mainland property owners here in puna who built a boom era house and its now sitting there being rented because they want to retire to it in 10 years or something, are going to allow it to become a section 8 house? how many renters on here are going to try to move to a more expensive bigger house this year? if anything i bet that you could negotiate your rent down.

The federal reserve and the government colluded to create this massive bubble and they are doing everything they can to prevent it from collapsing back to the levels of reality. they (government and fed officials) talk about how they have helped 'shore up the housing market' . but in reality they should be wanting prices to fall. We couldn't afford housing before the bubble burst, so how are we going to afford it again? are we magically more productive? have we invested in anything worth wile other than consumer goods? nope. For example locally in this state, and on this island it is a JOKE that power is produced and distributed the way it is, why? everyone argues against monopoly powers and says how they are terrible yet our "collective" (LOL) solution is to create a government sanctioned and mandated monopoly? you see this is why all of my predictions are negative, nothing has changed and we are now in a state of thievery, technical stagnation and decay.

Is money invested in a new burger king and longs really productive for the local economy? (look don't get me wrong i will go there for sure my point is on the PRODUCTIVE use of capital not the CONSUMPTION of it)

Lots of money spent on this island was speculation, excess bubble mania, the market is no where close to being cleared.

quote:

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Originally posted by Dave M

quote:

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Originally posted by 808blogger


The Audit the fed bill will be passed

---

Ex freakin cuse me.. Didn't I say there would be "NO" Transparency at the Fed?? I used larger font. How dare your prediction contradict mine. You know I'm funnin wit ya.. right? [:o)] I so want me to be wrong, and you to be right that I'm going to risk having Rob throw me off PUNAWEB.

Here is info on HR 1207 which has made it through the finance vote. But it's far from passed. The reason I'm going to put this link up is that people all over need to contact their Representatives. Hawaii is right up there at the top as a co sponsor but that can change as we get closer to the vote.

http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/aud...e-hr-1207/

It doesn't matter what side of the political spectrum you come from this is one of the most important issues facing our country and the Hawaii economy right now. Go check out the website and study up on the Fed.. you will be amazed at what you thought you knew..

If I'm wrong (which hardly ever happens then this Country will be a much better and informed place.. So get out there and prove me wrong Punatics.

Meanwhile, I stand by my prediction "No Transparency" at the FED!!!

Blessings,
dave

"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young

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[808blogger]

quote:

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Originally posted by chrisb483


Instead of manufacturing more jobs, how about we get rid of the need for jobs?

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Why if we invested in Productive capital like machines to build things and automate our lives that would be possible. People have no idea what the ultimate purpose of production and economy are about. The end goal of an economy is to make it so we don't have to work.

[pslamont]

PREDICTIONS;
1. Country style smarts will continue to increase in value. Those that plant effective gardens, orchards, etc... will not only provide for themselves but provide for neighbors. |

2. Barter will become more and more prevalent

3. Make Do will be a more standardized concept. Repair instead of replace will be the norm for more and more people. Much of this "business" will be off the books for taxes and such.

4. Local taxes will rise. The rest of the country is used to 6-8% sales tax. Hawaii will have to give in and take the plunge to balance the budget.

5. Crime will continue to rise as the welfare generation, with its attitude of entitlement (the world owes me...) will take what they feel should be theirs without concern for those who have worked to "get".





I want to be the kind of woman that, when my feet
hit the floor each morning, the devil says

"Oh Crap, She's up!"

[PaulW]

Jan 1 2011 vs Jan 1 2010
My predictions:
- Hawaii unemployment will go down
- Puna real estate values will go up
- Dow will go up; I'll guess 13,000
- County Council will pass a resolution saying there is insufficient evidence that a man has walked on the Moon
- still no change on Highway 130
- still no broadband in large areas of Puna, even densely populated parts of HPP

[Greg]

I predict Brett Favre will win the Superbowl MVP.

Stoneface

[kabloink]

I only have one prediction

alcohol sales will remain strong

[Rob Tucker]

I predict that when the Woodland Center opens in Pahoa Village traffic will become much, much worse at that intersection.

[Dave M]

"We actually agree. a bill will be passed IMHO but as you correctly pointed out, it will not provide transparency."

Yeah real transparency at the Fed would mean jail time for some people!

"Even Ron Paul knows the constitution is a CONTRACT, that is why even his participation in the system is logically incorrect and i think he knows it."

Agreed.. but it'sprobably the only way to make a difference, from the inside.

As far as this is concerned for Puna residents, we will continue to see real estate fall in REAL TERMS and the economy to stagnate. In REALITY and not a BUBBLE. Real estate prices are a function of the rental market. Who is going to afford to pay rent when there are no jobs locally? Section 8 thats who. now how many mainland property owners here in puna who built a boom era house and its now sitting there being rented because they want to retire to it in 10 years or something, are going to allow it to become a section 8 house? how many renters on here are going to try to move to a more expensive bigger house this year? if anything i bet that you could negotiate your rent down.

Sounds a lot like the mid to late eighties to me.. It has to correct itself.

The federal reserve and the government colluded to create this massive bubble and they are doing everything they can to prevent it from collapsing back to the levels of reality. they (government and fed officials) talk about how they have helped 'shore up the housing market' . but in reality they should be wanting prices to fall. We couldn't afford housing before the bubble burst, so how are we going to afford it again? Exactly, but to make the scheme work they relaxed the lending practices which as we saw made all those puffed up house prices affordable to the unqualified buyer. This was the house of cards.. are we magically more productive? have we invested in anything worth wile other than consumer goods? nope. For example locally in this state, and on this island it is a JOKE that power is produced and distributed the way it is, why? everyone argues against monopoly powers and says how they are terrible yet our "collective" (LOL) solution is to create a government sanctioned and mandated monopoly? you see this is why all of my predictions are negative, nothing has changed and we are now in a state of thievery, technical stagnation and decay.

People tend to think that they want the Gov. in their lives and that if the Gov takes over it will be safe and fare..

Is money invested in a new burger king and longs really productive for the local economy? (look don't get me wrong i will go there for sure my point is on the PRODUCTIVE use of capital not the CONSUMPTION of it)

Well since about the mid ninties investors have grown their expectations, I guess based on the IPOs and what not, but people have much higher expectaions these days bordering entitlemat. And youknow corporate America is right out front!

Lots of money spent on this island was speculation, excess bubble mania, the market is no where close to being cleared.

There are way to many variables that still need to be addressed such as Jobs, inflation, stagnation etc.. Thanks 808 and you to Rob for your patience here I'll go back to Lurking now Happy New Year to all



Blessings,
dave

"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young