12-14-2016, 06:37 AM
This is an Alert as the weather pattern is very complicated and we’ll have severe wx nearby so heads-up.
Very cold air aloft will plunge South over the North Central Pacific late this week and weekend. A strong Kona Low will develop about 600 miles North of us;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kona_storm
The coldest air will stay to our North/NW. The progression of the cold air can be monitored here;
http://tinyurl.com/gsrpmqn
The wx models have really struggled with where this Low will go. So confidence in the forecast is low.
The heaviest convection looks to stay to the East of us- where the warm and cold air will be mixing it up the most.
http://tinyurl.com/z4vqs8k
Look for SW winds to ramp up on Thurs./Fri. These winds will be counter to our prevailing wind direction and can bring wind damage at lower wind speeds than one might expect if the high winds were coming at us from our prevailing E/NE direction;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/pfm...g_HILO.png
Pressure gradients are not expected to be that high here but the situation bears monitoring- summits will be very windy;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...i?a=hi_slp
A frontal passage will be possible here Fri./ Fri. night and Sat. There’s a chance that the front will stall out right over us.
Early next week as the Low weakens (cold air warms, modifies) it is predicted to move to the West of us and when this happens it could draw the heavy convection that was to our East back over the top of us as the trades return-Yeah!.
Best chances for Thunderstorms here will be Fri./ Sat. as cold air aloft reaches it’s coldest over us at that time. Freezing level (FL) could drop as low as 10.5k here. Haleakala on Maui might even get snow. Remarkably the FL just a few hundred miles N/NW could reach as low as 6k!!
Prepare and enjoy the show!
Very cold air aloft will plunge South over the North Central Pacific late this week and weekend. A strong Kona Low will develop about 600 miles North of us;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kona_storm
The coldest air will stay to our North/NW. The progression of the cold air can be monitored here;
http://tinyurl.com/gsrpmqn
The wx models have really struggled with where this Low will go. So confidence in the forecast is low.
The heaviest convection looks to stay to the East of us- where the warm and cold air will be mixing it up the most.
http://tinyurl.com/z4vqs8k
Look for SW winds to ramp up on Thurs./Fri. These winds will be counter to our prevailing wind direction and can bring wind damage at lower wind speeds than one might expect if the high winds were coming at us from our prevailing E/NE direction;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/pfm...g_HILO.png
Pressure gradients are not expected to be that high here but the situation bears monitoring- summits will be very windy;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...i?a=hi_slp
A frontal passage will be possible here Fri./ Fri. night and Sat. There’s a chance that the front will stall out right over us.
Early next week as the Low weakens (cold air warms, modifies) it is predicted to move to the West of us and when this happens it could draw the heavy convection that was to our East back over the top of us as the trades return-Yeah!.
Best chances for Thunderstorms here will be Fri./ Sat. as cold air aloft reaches it’s coldest over us at that time. Freezing level (FL) could drop as low as 10.5k here. Haleakala on Maui might even get snow. Remarkably the FL just a few hundred miles N/NW could reach as low as 6k!!
Prepare and enjoy the show!