02-03-2018, 06:05 AM
Enhanced by a record setting MJO- Madden Julian Oscillation a powerful storm is about to hit us.
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html
To learn about MJO’s here an excellent tutorial;
http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/arc..._focus.pdf
The amplitude of the MJO in the Western Pacific is the highest ever recorded. Simplified this means that convection is enhanced and even small storms have a chance to grow into big storms.
Highest impacts from this storm will be over the smaller NW Islands. Tuesday will be the highest impact day here. Fortunately we will get frontal passage and then we’ll get a drier North flow after passage and escape this muggy S/SW flow.
With freezing levels predicted to drop to 11,200 k on Tuesday- more than a foot of snow could fall over Mauna Kea and lesser amounts over Mauna Loa- mostly on Tuesday/Tuesday night;
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/...casts/4205
Powerful rotating thunderstorms are possible and could be widespread as cold air aloft plunges South once again and interacts with the warm moist air at the surface.
It is possible that these thunderstorms could reach Mesoscale Convection Complex- rare here but with this atmospheric set-up it appears to be a distinct possibility;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_...ive_system
Heads-Up!
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html
To learn about MJO’s here an excellent tutorial;
http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/arc..._focus.pdf
The amplitude of the MJO in the Western Pacific is the highest ever recorded. Simplified this means that convection is enhanced and even small storms have a chance to grow into big storms.
Highest impacts from this storm will be over the smaller NW Islands. Tuesday will be the highest impact day here. Fortunately we will get frontal passage and then we’ll get a drier North flow after passage and escape this muggy S/SW flow.
With freezing levels predicted to drop to 11,200 k on Tuesday- more than a foot of snow could fall over Mauna Kea and lesser amounts over Mauna Loa- mostly on Tuesday/Tuesday night;
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/...casts/4205
Powerful rotating thunderstorms are possible and could be widespread as cold air aloft plunges South once again and interacts with the warm moist air at the surface.
It is possible that these thunderstorms could reach Mesoscale Convection Complex- rare here but with this atmospheric set-up it appears to be a distinct possibility;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_...ive_system
Heads-Up!