05-24-2015, 09:57 AM
Currently a hostile air mass environment (cool, relatively dry air mass) for tropical storms/hurricanes exists over the Hawaiian Islands. It would be very difficult for a tropical storm to develop here or even for a storm to move into this air mass. This kind of air mass would dissipate a tropical storm rather quickly.
Yesterday we had a very rare and unusual weather event for this time of year-late May. A modified Arctic air mass settled over the islands after a cold front passage- this is very rare!! Usually by this time of year these air masses would dissipate much further North. And this air mass looks to be in place for almost a week-very unusual. So this can tell you that there's still an abundance of cool Northern air masses.
Hurricanes/tropical storms take excessive Summer heat in the tropics and move it North to the Arctic if they're strong enough and of course the opposite happens with the Northern Hemisphere's Winter. Excessively cold Winter air is heavy and moves South. What is very unusual is for the cool air to make it this far South in late May.
An easy to understand resource for determine any tropical storm threat here is;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr.../index.php
Water temps are critical for determining the threat. Hurricanes need 26 C degree or 78.8 F water to sustain the storm. Tropical storms can exist with cooler water. You can see that water this warm is South of the Hawaiian Islands at this time;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/sst.gif
The current storms in the Eastern Pacific Basin don't have much of a chance of developing so No worries in Hawaii from them at this time.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's 2015 outlook is due out on Tues. 5-26;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
Not unusual at all for tropical storms to develop in the Eastern Pacific as the hurricane season for Eastern Pacific starts May 15th so they're right on schedule.
Yesterday we had a very rare and unusual weather event for this time of year-late May. A modified Arctic air mass settled over the islands after a cold front passage- this is very rare!! Usually by this time of year these air masses would dissipate much further North. And this air mass looks to be in place for almost a week-very unusual. So this can tell you that there's still an abundance of cool Northern air masses.
Hurricanes/tropical storms take excessive Summer heat in the tropics and move it North to the Arctic if they're strong enough and of course the opposite happens with the Northern Hemisphere's Winter. Excessively cold Winter air is heavy and moves South. What is very unusual is for the cool air to make it this far South in late May.
An easy to understand resource for determine any tropical storm threat here is;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr.../index.php
Water temps are critical for determining the threat. Hurricanes need 26 C degree or 78.8 F water to sustain the storm. Tropical storms can exist with cooler water. You can see that water this warm is South of the Hawaiian Islands at this time;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/sst.gif
The current storms in the Eastern Pacific Basin don't have much of a chance of developing so No worries in Hawaii from them at this time.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's 2015 outlook is due out on Tues. 5-26;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
Not unusual at all for tropical storms to develop in the Eastern Pacific as the hurricane season for Eastern Pacific starts May 15th so they're right on schedule.