08-09-2015, 01:26 PM
Modeling can only be as good as the data going in. There is very little data for central pacific cyclonic storms with SST's as high as they are this year...Our island has been near the 28deg C mark for the last month (Guillermo did us a slight cooling favor... just about a 1/2 degree C reduction on SSTs on the east side)
Right now this storm potential track (that 'cone of probability') is quite spread out...there is no clear path that most of the models are in agreement with at this point... so it is a storm to keep watching...
The amount of potential energy in that is available per degree C recorded as SSTs is quite impressive...and each meter down that the temp exists adds more potential energy for the Huriricane to gain....over the total sq. mileage these storms travel in warm water... lots of potential there for some really impressive storm formation...
Right now this storm potential track (that 'cone of probability') is quite spread out...there is no clear path that most of the models are in agreement with at this point... so it is a storm to keep watching...
The amount of potential energy in that is available per degree C recorded as SSTs is quite impressive...and each meter down that the temp exists adds more potential energy for the Huriricane to gain....over the total sq. mileage these storms travel in warm water... lots of potential there for some really impressive storm formation...