08-09-2015, 08:49 PM
One of the biggest reasons Hawaii is not hit very often by hurricanes is the Subtropical Jet Stream. Since the Subtropical Jet Stream flows from West to East at high altitudes. and hurricanes move from East to West we have a conflict and lucky for us the Subtropical Jet almost always prevails. When we have an El Nino, this jet stream dramatically strengthens and goes much further to our East. Good news for Calif. if this weather pattern holds till Winter 2016. It'll be an active storm track. Currently the jet is South of it's normal 30 degrees North latitude location and lies between 20-25 degrees North;
http://www.personal.psu.edu/suc195/assign4_elnino.html
You could see the effect of this jet with portions of Guillermo's moisture getting sucked all the way into Calif. where it did bring some showers-look at the last 7 days;
http://water.weather.gov/precip/?yesterday=1
Looks like Hilda will meet the same fate as Guillermo as the subtropical jet will take it's top off. If the current tracking cone is correct and it passes just to our South. Puna will be in the right front quadrant as it passes so we could expect the worse of whatever's left of this storm after it deals with all that wind shear;
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropic...ther-page/
You can monitor the subtropical jet here. If you look at this model at this time you can see that Hilda comes up and dents the jet temporarily and then it gets overwhelmed and dissipated by the jet. These are upper level winds so you could still have a low level circulation center. We're just about 20 degrees North latitude. The jet fluctuates back and forth (North to South like a snake) and if one of these storms happens when the subtropical jet is to our North then our chances of getting hit would definitely go up. Hurricanes and wind shear do not get along. So far this jet has been where we need it to weaken the storms as they approach;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...a=npac_250
http://www.personal.psu.edu/suc195/assign4_elnino.html
You could see the effect of this jet with portions of Guillermo's moisture getting sucked all the way into Calif. where it did bring some showers-look at the last 7 days;
http://water.weather.gov/precip/?yesterday=1
Looks like Hilda will meet the same fate as Guillermo as the subtropical jet will take it's top off. If the current tracking cone is correct and it passes just to our South. Puna will be in the right front quadrant as it passes so we could expect the worse of whatever's left of this storm after it deals with all that wind shear;
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropic...ther-page/
You can monitor the subtropical jet here. If you look at this model at this time you can see that Hilda comes up and dents the jet temporarily and then it gets overwhelmed and dissipated by the jet. These are upper level winds so you could still have a low level circulation center. We're just about 20 degrees North latitude. The jet fluctuates back and forth (North to South like a snake) and if one of these storms happens when the subtropical jet is to our North then our chances of getting hit would definitely go up. Hurricanes and wind shear do not get along. So far this jet has been where we need it to weaken the storms as they approach;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...a=npac_250