08-29-2015, 05:44 AM
Looks like a close encounter with Ignacio on Monday. Hopefully we stay on the South side of the hurricane which is the weaker side. The track possibilities can be monitored here;
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
Just click on your hurricane of interest. At this time it looks like the less worrisome Hurricane Jimena (check GFS ensemble track guidance) will veer to the North just in time to spare the Big Island.
Consider your wind exposure at your location as the counter clockwise circulation of Ignacio puts the East side of the Big island exposed to a North wind if the track stays like it is. If weather models are correct it looks like we'll just get grazed here;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...i?a=hi_slp
Finally Ignacio will encounter increasing SW wind shear from the subtropical jet starting on Sunday which should weaken the storm rapidly and push it to the East;
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropic...ther-page/
Of course hurricanes are fickle things and almost anything can happen so be prepared. At this point it looks like we will avoid the worst of Ignacio. Hopefully Jimena follows the current model track and moves North away from us well in advance of a hit.
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
Just click on your hurricane of interest. At this time it looks like the less worrisome Hurricane Jimena (check GFS ensemble track guidance) will veer to the North just in time to spare the Big Island.
Consider your wind exposure at your location as the counter clockwise circulation of Ignacio puts the East side of the Big island exposed to a North wind if the track stays like it is. If weather models are correct it looks like we'll just get grazed here;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...i?a=hi_slp
Finally Ignacio will encounter increasing SW wind shear from the subtropical jet starting on Sunday which should weaken the storm rapidly and push it to the East;
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropic...ther-page/
Of course hurricanes are fickle things and almost anything can happen so be prepared. At this point it looks like we will avoid the worst of Ignacio. Hopefully Jimena follows the current model track and moves North away from us well in advance of a hit.