10-01-2015, 10:01 PM
Recently someone posted a post mentioning Puna Weather on Facebook. So I joined and have switched my weather posts over to there. It seems more apppropiate to post weather stuff there.
Here's a very heavily edited post from there;
Could the next few storms be the last of the Super Soakers? (1" inch or more of rainfall in a day, continuing for a series of days). Who knows but it's looking like it could be.
Weather conditions in the North Central Pacific are changing much faster than what would be considered normal for this time of year. Of course a big chunk of cold air from Siberia that slammed thru Alaska will do that- it's just real early. Normal time for this to happen would be mid/late Oct. sometimes not even until Nov. for the cold air to get this far South in such a large quantity.
Looking at the satellite you can see the cold air pouring South across the North Central Pacific.
As the cold air associated with the storm that brought historic snowfall to Alaska;
http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/
pours South there is a counter flow of warm air that will pour North. And we're right where the two air masses are poised to meet. The wx models are all over the place so they're hard to figure- hence you'll hear the words "it's a complex situation" and it is. A butterfly flaps her wings and everything shifts by hundreds of miles. The Chaos theory can make weather forecasting humbling.
At times during the next week it looks like the cold and warm air will meet right over Hawaii. This is when we get really wet like the last two Sundays. Lowering freezing levels will knock out the inversions and create unstable conditions (cold on top of warm). Imagine an ice cube on top of a steam kettle.
Colder air on a air mass scale modifies the tropical air. Hence over time the moist warm air column is reduced vertically and horizontally. Reducing the amount of moisture available and tropical system will have a much harder time developing in our very near future.
To sum up we should get soaked this weekend and next week could be very wet. Also the models are showing tropical system development maybe even 2 at one time-dumb belling around each other, to our South and Southwest, in what could be the last big tropical storm/hurricane threat this year to Hawaii because of the air mass modification mentioned above.
Hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30th but we already are well past the peak conditions for tropical development because of the cold air that's already been delivered. Can you feel it? I sure can here at 1500' currently it's 64 degrees.
At this time and lucky for us any systems that do develop, will develop close to us and will not be able to come at us on a long track gathering up moisture and not be able to feed off the warm waters for a long period of time. Still if a tropical system develops and then moves over us and stalls we could get historic rains just like Charleston, South Carolina is predicted to receive tomorrow I believe. Anyway you look at it it's going to get interesting!!
You can monitor the current tropical systems here;
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
Click on your storm of interest.
Here's a very heavily edited post from there;
Could the next few storms be the last of the Super Soakers? (1" inch or more of rainfall in a day, continuing for a series of days). Who knows but it's looking like it could be.
Weather conditions in the North Central Pacific are changing much faster than what would be considered normal for this time of year. Of course a big chunk of cold air from Siberia that slammed thru Alaska will do that- it's just real early. Normal time for this to happen would be mid/late Oct. sometimes not even until Nov. for the cold air to get this far South in such a large quantity.
Looking at the satellite you can see the cold air pouring South across the North Central Pacific.
As the cold air associated with the storm that brought historic snowfall to Alaska;
http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/
pours South there is a counter flow of warm air that will pour North. And we're right where the two air masses are poised to meet. The wx models are all over the place so they're hard to figure- hence you'll hear the words "it's a complex situation" and it is. A butterfly flaps her wings and everything shifts by hundreds of miles. The Chaos theory can make weather forecasting humbling.
At times during the next week it looks like the cold and warm air will meet right over Hawaii. This is when we get really wet like the last two Sundays. Lowering freezing levels will knock out the inversions and create unstable conditions (cold on top of warm). Imagine an ice cube on top of a steam kettle.
Colder air on a air mass scale modifies the tropical air. Hence over time the moist warm air column is reduced vertically and horizontally. Reducing the amount of moisture available and tropical system will have a much harder time developing in our very near future.
To sum up we should get soaked this weekend and next week could be very wet. Also the models are showing tropical system development maybe even 2 at one time-dumb belling around each other, to our South and Southwest, in what could be the last big tropical storm/hurricane threat this year to Hawaii because of the air mass modification mentioned above.
Hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30th but we already are well past the peak conditions for tropical development because of the cold air that's already been delivered. Can you feel it? I sure can here at 1500' currently it's 64 degrees.
At this time and lucky for us any systems that do develop, will develop close to us and will not be able to come at us on a long track gathering up moisture and not be able to feed off the warm waters for a long period of time. Still if a tropical system develops and then moves over us and stalls we could get historic rains just like Charleston, South Carolina is predicted to receive tomorrow I believe. Anyway you look at it it's going to get interesting!!
You can monitor the current tropical systems here;
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
Click on your storm of interest.