02-12-2016, 11:10 AM
I think it's great when people make predictions, it's where opinions meet reality.
I am interested in all earthquake predictions, I don't care how they were derived - experience, intuition, hard data, psychics, cats - write 'em down and let's see how they work out!
But, a prediction has to be testable. Saying that it will be of a magnitude of "3.5 more or less" means nothing because you can't say afterwards for certain if the prediction was correct. Does 4.0 count? How about 4.1? Why not 4.2? Maybe 4.5 is meant, who knows?
For example, someone here predicted that an earthquake would occur "in a few weeks to a month later".
I think most people would interpret that to be 14 days to 31 days, inclusive. An earthquake did occur and said person
claimed that their prediction was a hit. So when was this earthquake? Two and a half months later. That is
more than 2.5 times the *maximum* value suggested by the prediction. Well, then the sky's the limit.
Obviously he has learned his lesson and now hedges his bets not only on the time frame but also the magnitude, the depth and the area.
I smell Nobel Prize, or maybe it's something else.
I am interested in all earthquake predictions, I don't care how they were derived - experience, intuition, hard data, psychics, cats - write 'em down and let's see how they work out!
But, a prediction has to be testable. Saying that it will be of a magnitude of "3.5 more or less" means nothing because you can't say afterwards for certain if the prediction was correct. Does 4.0 count? How about 4.1? Why not 4.2? Maybe 4.5 is meant, who knows?
For example, someone here predicted that an earthquake would occur "in a few weeks to a month later".
I think most people would interpret that to be 14 days to 31 days, inclusive. An earthquake did occur and said person
claimed that their prediction was a hit. So when was this earthquake? Two and a half months later. That is
more than 2.5 times the *maximum* value suggested by the prediction. Well, then the sky's the limit.
Obviously he has learned his lesson and now hedges his bets not only on the time frame but also the magnitude, the depth and the area.
I smell Nobel Prize, or maybe it's something else.